"Hong Kong Lesson 1" 29. Why are there demonstrations in Hong Kong all day long?

Because of the failure of elections and parliaments that normally represent public opinion, even the media is increasingly unable to reflect the diverse opinions of society. When people cannot express their dissatisfaction within the system, it does not mean that their demands will disappear, and they may choose to speak out outside the system. Hong Kong has become a "protest capital", which reflects the failure of the public opinion system itself.

According to statistics from the Hong Kong Police Force, the number of annual public processions and assemblies in Hong Kong has increased from more than 4,000 in 2008 to more than 11,000 in 2018, or more than 32 per day. The popular saying of "one demonstration every three days and one demonstration every five days" is a serious underestimate. Some foreign media have compared figures around the world and found that Hong Kong is the city with the most frequent public protests in the world, and it is far behind Mexico City, which comes in second place.

There are two possible reasons for the increasing number of marches. First, the participants could not find a better way to express their demands; second, the participants at least believed that their expressions had the potential to bring about some changes (even if these changes were not necessarily immediate). The situation in Hong Kong fits the above two points. Under normal circumstances, parliament cannot reflect public opinion, but under strong pressure, if a key minority of elites in the establishment are willing to cooperate with each other, or at least these elites find that using the current public opinion to their advantage, it can still bring about changes. possible. After the July 1st parade in 2003, when more than 500,000 people took to the streets, the Liberal Party, which was originally a "ruling coalition", resolutely defected, so that the government no longer had enough votes to pass national security legislation and was forced to withdraw the bill. Since then, the annual July 1st parade has become a big day for civil society mobilization. Organizations with different issues will take advantage of the day to express their demands, support each other with other organizations, and maintain funds for the preparatory office.

And because the formal politics of Hong Kong fail to reflect public opinion, some people think that the Hong Kong government is more influenced by the current public opinion (see Question 27). This public opinion is not the "opinion of the majority" in the traditional sense (the government is not elected by elections anyway), but the voice that can most attract the attention of the majority at the moment, which can be said to be the "loud minority". For example, in the dispute over the demolition of Star Ferry Pier and Queen's Wharf, although the wharf was eventually demolished, the government has since put more emphasis on the "conservation" of historical buildings, which can be seen as the result of the efforts of the "loud few" in the eyes of the public. These experiences illustrate that in a "semi-democratic" political system, the interaction between collective action and public opinion and formal politics can lead to certain outcomes.

Although marches and rallies have become increasingly common in Hong Kong, it does not mean that there are no difficulties. On the contrary, in terms of specific arrangements, exerting influence, and maintaining public attention, it is increasingly difficult to express demands through protests such as marches and rallies.

Let's talk about the specific arrangements first. According to the current Public Order Ordinance, a public gathering of 50 or more people or a public procession of 30 or more people should notify the Commissioner of Police in advance and receive a "Notice of No Objection" before it can be held. Any unauthorised public meeting or public procession is unlawful. Any three or more people who gather together with the intention of destroying the peace of the society or inciting others to destroy the peace of the society shall commit an illegal assembly. These systems originated from the high-pressure governance during the British rule. At that time, there were opinions in the society that the public's freedom of expression could not be guaranteed, and that the control was too strict. When the Public Security Ordinance was revised after the establishment of the SAR, legal scholar Chen Wenmin criticized the legislation as restoring the colonial regime's high-pressure governance, which was not conducive to maintaining social stability.

Another specific arrangement issue is who will initiate the rally. Marches and rallies in Hong Kong often emphasize the spontaneity of the participants, so as not to be criticized by the pro-establishment camp that the participants are merely "misled by politicians". In fact, surveys show that the participants are usually mobilized spontaneously and are not inclined to be mobilized by organizations or groups. In practice, however, any collective action requires a certain level of organization, such as setting up the venue and communicating with the police, which is done by individual NGOs. The laws of Hong Kong guarantee freedom of association. There are also a large number of NGOs concerned with different issues. They are all important pillars of organizing collective action. However, most NGOs in Hong Kong are currently struggling to operate and grow. The cause of the problem must be explained by returning to the flaws in Hong Kong's political system. In a normal democratic society, due to the rotation of political parties, different interests must use various methods to maintain their influence on the government, and civil pressure and lobbying groups play an important role; but in Hong Kong, because the ruling group is always in power, the civil society It is difficult to prove the influence of the group, and it is difficult to obtain the resources to support its work, thus falling into a vicious circle of lack of resources and influence. And because those in opposition are always in opposition, civil society faces the same pressure of fragmentation as political parties in the non-establishment camp. In this case, Hong Kong's civil society has developed many micro-organizations, which can only form loose alliances against the government on major issues, but it is difficult to develop into a stronger and lasting check and balance force.

The problems caused by the lack of mutual trust have become more apparent in recent years. For example, to hold a large-scale event will inevitably involve a certain amount of expenses, such as printing the magazine, renting the venue, setting up the stage or renting the PA equipment. However, if these expenses are subsidized by fundraising at the venue, it is easy to be attacked as "making a fortune through social movements". Even if the organizers try to be as open and transparent as possible to accept supervision, it is difficult to meet everyone's requirements due to limited resources. As a result, many micro-groups are trapped in a vicious circle in which good internal governance cannot be achieved without resources, and more resources cannot be obtained without good internal governance.

In addition, Hong Kong is far more liberal than mainland China in terms of freedom of association. As long as three people sign and submit a two-page application form, they can register as a society, or they can directly open a business company to register, and then they can go to the bank to open it. account, there are no restrictions encountered when setting up a private non-enterprise unit in mainland China. However, in recent years, the SAR government has begun to use various administrative means to create difficulties for the operation of civil organizations. In recent years, a number of non-governmental organizations such as Hong Kong Zhongzhi and the Hong Kong National Party have failed to register due to their political stance. However, Hong Kong has not yet legislated on relevant issues, and the legal basis for the government's refusal to register is unclear. Later, the government cited the "protection of national security" clause in the Societies Ordinance to prohibit the operation of the Hong Kong National Party. However, the evidence listed was only the personal remarks of its convener, without actual action to support it, and it was judged as abusing relevant clauses and ideas. Incrimination.

As for the influence of marches and rallies, it has also faced many doubts in recent years. In protests, especially peaceful protests, attendance is often an important indicator of how much public attention and pressure it can cause, but the number estimates themselves are often controversial, and participants often question the police’s underestimation of the number, while the other side will Question the organizers overestimating the number of people. The police estimated that the number of participants in the June 4th Gala in 2014 and 2016 were 99,500 and 18,000 respectively. However, there was apparently no difference in the number of people occupied by the crowds between the two gatherings, which led to inconsistencies. Less public doubts. In order to make an objective estimate of the number of attendees, some scholars will use various methods such as the population density of the venue to estimate the number of people. The public opinion research project of the University of Hong Kong has set up video cameras on the July 1st parade route for many years, and then manually counted the number of people passing by, and then calculated the number of people passing by. total attendance.

In fact, any public gathering with more than 10,000 participants should be regarded as a major social event in essence. However, due to the flaws in Hong Kong's political system, the election results themselves cannot accurately reflect public opinion, so many people feel that it is more effective to reflect their demands by taking their stand on the streets and letting all parties get his attendance. The media are also accustomed to using the increase or decrease in the number of attendees at the same event compared to last year as an important indicator of whether public opinion is warming up or cooling down, which in turn has sparked controversy and obsession with counting the number of people. Even a large carnival held by the government or the establishment camp on the same day as the parade will be seen as competing with the parade for venue and attendance.

Another issue of influence is that as marches and rallies become more frequent, it can in turn become difficult to maintain public attention. Scholars Li Lifeng and Chen Taowen use the term "social movement society" to describe the normalization of collective action in Hong Kong. They pointed out that social movements have been adopted by more and more citizens and groups as a model for fighting for rights, and that the masses have become accustomed to social movements, or it can be said that social movements have been domesticated, which in turn has made social movements lose their ability to break through. routine capacity, thereby reducing the impact on society.

In a society where few people dare to speak up, if someone comes out to express even the slightest dissent, such as submitting an opinion letter to the government office, it can break through social norms and attract public attention. But when more and more of the same practice happens, it becomes difficult to keep the attention. After all, the news is concerned with what is "new". As a result, dissidents have to come up with some new ways to attract attention, such as preparing some props when submitting their opinions, to make the news screen more attractive. Of course, some of the most radical methods of resistance are the ones that can break through social conventions the most. Here, organizers often have to face a dilemma: if they choose a form that is more acceptable to the public, their issues will be submerged in other similar forms of protest; if they choose a form that is not acceptable to the public, although they can achieve the effect of attracting attention, Its focus may become the form itself rather than the original issue. The public may be tempted to condemn these forms, ignoring why these people are speaking out.

At the same time, when the action fails to bring the expected return of the participants, the feeling of powerlessness brought will also discourage the next participation. Some people think that the success of the July 1st march in 2003 has raised the public's expectation of participating in the march and assembly. But when the Occupy movement in 2014 failed to bring about universal suffrage, different movement participants accused each other of not being enough or being too radical, making the movement a failure. Relevant issues have been haunting Hong Kong's civil society until the "Fugitive Offenders Ordinance" controversy in 2019, when the debate over "effectiveness" began to be put aside and returned to the original intention of "doing what should be done".

Finally, the establishment camp has also developed a way to deal with marches and rallies: reactionary operations. They understand the above-mentioned difficulties in holding processions and the public's suspicions, so they hold a large number of low-quality processions to expand these doubts, causing public opinion to be disgusted by any procession and meeting. For example, they also arrange rallies for reactionary mobilizers during the June 4th party or the July 1st parade, or mobilize the masses to show support when the Legislative Council is deliberating on bills. The organizers of these events tend to be more aggressive in their words and deeds than those in the non-establishment camp, and the participants often appear to the media as if they don't even know what they are participating in. These questions, however, do not detract from these reactionary mobilizations, since their purpose is not really to express support or persuade others, but to stigmatize the very act of expressing an opinion. When the average person is disgusted or at least annoyed by political issues and collective action, the status quo can be achieved at the macro level, and vested interests can persist.

Further reading:
Self-study youth of the post-80s generation (2013) "Resistance is a crime: Political prosecution and hope", Hong Kong: Hong Kong Christian Student Movement.
Li Lifeng and Chen Taowen (2013) "A Preliminary Study of Hong Kong's "Social Movement Society" - An Analysis of the Form and Development of Hong Kong's Collective Resistance Actions, edited by Zhang Shaoqiang, Liang Qizhi, and Chen Jiaming, Hong Kong. Discuss. Media, Hong Kong: Oxford University Press.
Chen Taowen and Li Lifeng (2009) "Reconstructing Hong Kong's Political Culture from Public Opinion Turbulence: An Analysis of the Public Discourse of the July 1st Parade", edited by Ma Jiewei, Wu Junxiong, and Lu Dale, "Hong Kong Cultural Politics", Hong Kong: University of Hong Kong Press.
Ma N (2007) Civil Society in Self-Defense, Political Development in Hong Kong: State, Political Society, and Civil Society . Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press.