Cooling down the Sino-Indian border and suspending IPEF trade negotiations: India intends to make a strategic turn on the eve of the SCO?

Recently, two major moves in India have attracted attention from the outside world.

On September 9, China and India issued a joint press release, stating that the front-line troops of the two armies in Jianan Daban had, according to the consensus reached in the 16th round of commander-level talks between China and India, Synchronized disengagement began on May 8. This move is another easing of the border confrontation between China and India after the disengagement in the Pangong Lake area in February 2021. It is also a new sign that the border between the two countries has cooled since the conflict in the Galwan Valley in June 2020.

On September 8, the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” (IPEF), a concept for a new economic circle led by the United States, held the first round of offline ministerial-level talks, and the two-day meeting ended on September 9. After the meeting, the countries issued a joint statement, stating that the 14 member states have jointly adopted the main goals of cooperation on the four pillars of trade, supply chain, clean economy and fair economy within the framework, and will start formal negotiations on this. However, India, which is the key to the framework, announced that it would temporarily withdraw from the negotiation in the trade field, one of the four pillars of the framework, after the meeting, on the grounds that "no benefits can be seen for the time being", becoming the only member state not to participate in the negotiations in all fields.

And because the two major moves seem to be "smoothing the United States and China", and they happened on the eve of the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (hereinafter referred to as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) from September 15th to 16th, some analysts believe that India seems to be making a strategic shift. That is to distance itself from the "Indo-Pacific strategy" led by the United States, while repairing Sino-Indian relations to participate in the Eurasian integration process. In short, the "American conspiracy" was hit hard.

In all fairness, from the perspective of India’s actions, the above inferences are not completely unfounded; but from the perspective of India’s long-standing realist thinking, its actions are, to a greater extent, to maximize its own national interests, rather than simply Faction selection.

Border standoff eases

First of all, the Sino-Indian border affairs are indeed moving in the direction of easing, but this has little to do with whether India is "smoothing the United States and China", but because India has no intention of "doing more entanglement" at the moment.

Recalling that in May 2020, the Indian border guards crossed the line and entered Chinese territory to set up barriers to prevent the normal patrol of the Chinese border guards. The two sides faced off in Ladakh; on the evening of June 15, the Indian border guards crossed the actual border again. In the Galwan Valley, officers and soldiers of the two sides clashed violently, causing casualties. This incident brought the long-dormant border issue to the surface, and China and India faced off with troops stationed in many places.

On June 6, 2020, under the intention of both sides to ease the situation, the border troops of China and India held the first commander-level talks, and the two sides agreed on the appropriate withdrawal of troops in batches through the on-site commander's meeting. Since then, although there have been occasional tense news on the Sino-Indian border, the commander-level talks have never stopped. It has continued for 16 rounds, and the process is not without progress.

On February 11, 2021, Wu Qian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, stated that the front-line troops of the Chinese and Indian armies located on the north and south shores of Pangong Tso will simultaneously organize disengagement from February 10. On January 24, the Chinese and Indian armies held the ninth round of commander-level talks on the Chinese side of the Mordo/Chushule meeting point. Therefore, the end of the confrontation at Pangong Lake is undoubtedly a result of the The consensus reached by India in the ninth round of commander-level talks; just like the simultaneous disengagement of front-line troops in Ganandaban on September 8, it is also the relevant outcome of the sixteenth round of commander-level talks on July 17.

From a practical point of view, although the commander-level talks are a front-line platform for the two sides to resolve border standoffs and conduct communication and consultations, their appearance and effectiveness still depend on the political decision and authorization of high-level officials from both sides. In other words, the commander-level talks led to the disengagement of the two troops, which reflects that both China and India are willing to maintain border security and stability, and try to communicate and dialogue through diplomatic and military channels, so as to return the line of actual control to calm, and at the same time for a comprehensive settlement The confrontation in the western section of the Sino-Indian border creates a positive atmosphere.

It can also be seen from this change in the situation that the stability of the Sino-Indian border depends on whether the two sides "walk toward each other"; to put it more directly, it is whether India can change its strategic attitude and not regard the border issue as a provocation to China. geo-leverage.

In all fairness, the China-India border issue has a long history and the two sides have lingering differences, so it is bound to be a major project to push for a solution. Therefore, over the years, China has avoided a repeat of the war to a certain extent by virtue of its two-pronged approach of strengthening its armament and promoting negotiations; and historical development has also proved that as long as India can exercise self-restraint and not set fire to the border, the two sides can generally be free from the intrusion of smoke and smoke.

However, the problem is that India has never been able to quit its political addiction to border issues. The triggering mechanism is often not the mobilization of the United States, but the internal affairs needs of the military to strive for merit and mobilize populism, which has led to repeated frictions between China and India, resulting in "conflict, negotiation, etc." The only difference is in the intensity of friction; the reason why China is trying to consolidate the border garrison outside the negotiation is that after many repeated situations, it knows to beware of India's "relapse of old habits" ".

Therefore, the current Sino-Indian border easing has nothing to do with whether India is far from the United States' Indo-Pacific mobilization, but is caused by its unwillingness to operate this lever at the moment, and historical development has also proved that the disparity in the military power of China and India, and the relationship between China and India. Neither the steady progress nor the close economic and trade exchanges between China and India can ensure that the border is dead. In the final analysis, instead of optimistically expecting that India can immediately escape the vicious circle of "conflict, negotiation, de-escalation, and re-conflict", it is better to seek for ourselves, not to reject any border negotiation mechanism that can help resolve differences, but also not to give up the occurrence of conflict. Afterwards, the preparation and determination to end the war with Ge.

It is inevitable that there will be contradictions and differences between countries. China-India relations should not only avoid falling into the zero-sum game mentality of you lose and I will win, but also understand the truth that sometimes strong strength can consolidate peace.

The real intention of temporarily withdrawing from negotiations in the field of trade

As for the suspension of trade negotiations, it does not mean that India rejects the mobilization of the United States in the Indo-Pacific, nor does it mean that India is unwilling to participate in the IPEF, nor does it mean that India will not conduct trade negotiations under the IPEF.

According to Piyush Goyal, India's Minister of Commerce and Industry, India has not joined negotiations in the trade area because the nature of the interests is unclear, "the outline of the framework, especially in the areas of environment, labor, digital trade and public There has not been a broader consensus among countries on any commitments required in procurement. We have yet to see what benefits countries will gain [from trade] and whether any conditions such as the environment could discriminate against developing countries.”

The Financial Express (The Financial Express) also pointed out that the Indian government recently withdrew a personal data protection bill from parliament in preparation for the introduction of a "more comprehensive legal framework". Therefore, it is difficult for New Delhi to make any "binding commitments" in the talks in the face of IPEF's digital openness-related requirements, especially when the details of the IPEF's framework are still relatively vague.

Despite the above-mentioned obstacles, India's Commerce and Industry Minister Goyal said that India will continue to closely participate in the trade negotiations as an "observer" and engage with other member states within the framework of the IPEF to wait for the "final outline" of the trade pillar. appear, and then decide whether to join. In short, India hopes to participate in the "trial operation" of the IPEF trade negotiations without the burden of responsibility for the time being, and at the same time offer conditions to the United States.

This phenomenon does not reflect India's intention to alienate the United States, but that the United States has agreed to a certain degree of "exceptional requirements" from India in order to ensure the stable operation of the mechanism, showing that it is courting and accommodating India. According to Bloomberg (Bloomberg), the United States also issued an official briefing on the 9th, saying that India "can participate in the negotiations even though it has not joined," reflecting the flexibility of the IPEF; US Trade Representative Katherine Tai even said that the United States Bilateral trade talks with India will continue, she will not define India's current decision as an "opt-out", and she will meet Goyal before the end of the year.

From the perspective of India, it is the consistent consideration of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to avoid the impact of the FTA on India's domestic industries. In Modi's view, excessive global participation will destroy India's local companies, which are either brutally swallowed up by multinational capital or lost in market competition. Therefore, India has also withdrawn from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) before. The logic is the same as its temporary withdrawal from the IPEF trade negotiation, which is all due to its reserved position on the free trade system.

However, although India is taboo to participate in the free trade system, it hopes to use the IPEF as a whole to achieve Modi's long-term goal of "cultivating the development of local industries". From India's point of view, the characteristic of IPEF is that it completely excludes China's participation, and intends to create a regional technology and supply chain system that is opposed to China, thereby opening up market potential. In all fairness, if the IPEF is initiated by India, it may become one of the regional cooperation systems for stacked bed frame houses in South Asia; but now that the United States is leading the team, India naturally has expectations for this framework, and hopes to use it to attract the Chinese market. Withdrawal of investment and business opportunities to increase India's development resources.

From this perspective, India may not join the IPEF trade negotiations in the short term, but it will not be outside the IPEF supply chain and technical cooperation fields; just as it attended the SCO and agreed to cool down the Sino-Indian border, However, it will not give up long-term competition with China in various fields.

Original published URL:

2022.9.15

Cooling down the Sino-Indian border and suspending IPEF trade negotiations: India intends to make a strategic turn on the eve of the SCO? | Hong Kong 01 https://www.hk01.com/sns/article/814866?utm_source=01articlecopy&utm_medium=referral