The anti-extradition movement is likely to affect the mainland

Recently, the civil protests against the construction of crematoriums by residents of Huazhou, Guangdong seem to have subsided. But there are also people who are still skeptical, because there is no document number on the government's announcement, and there are also people who wonder if all the arrested people have been released, because it is not known how many people have been arrested.

An important reason why the turmoil in Huazhou forced the government to make concessions in a short period of time was that the government was worried that the collective protests of the people would be contagious. There is a backlog of public grievances in society. If the surrounding counties and cities are infected, all kinds of contradictions that are usually covered up will be detonated, and the sporadic protests will become one gas and become a fire everywhere, and it will be difficult to clean up at that time.

The lesser of the two evils, the government can only choose to make concessions in exchange for temporary quelling of public grievances. At least, small troubles will not lead to major disasters, and when the top is held accountable, the mistakes of grass-roots party officials are not so serious.

In the early ten or twenty years, there was a period of high incidence of grassroots turmoil in mainland China. At that time, the economy was just taking off, there were many migrant workers in the city, living conditions were poor, and people's grievances were often triggered by some very isolated or even serious incidents. In the past ten or eight years, the economic situation has improved, and people's lives have improved. In addition, the party-state stability maintenance machine is pervasive, and large-scale protests by the people have rarely occurred. However, as the mainland's economic problems have been piling up over the years, civil grievances have been on the rise.

Some recent internal and external events have shown that the CCP has failed to advance and retreat, and its response has been chaotic when dealing with crises. The Sino-US trade negotiation has been difficult for a long time. If there is no sincere talk, we should stand firm early in the morning and give a counterattack. If there is a sincere talk, we should make concessions one at a time, and make a quick decision, so as to avoid long nightmares. But now they are dragging their feet, and the longer the delay, the more unfavorable the situation will be. The Americans took the opportunity to start from various aspects such as diplomacy and national defense, and the CCP was caught in a passive position and was beaten everywhere.

The same goes for the Australian espionage case. When the Wang Liqiang incident broke out, he first said that he was a fraudster, and that the video of the trial was made public. Then he said that Wang Liqiang was not Xiang Xin's subordinate, and the two did not know each other at all. The question is, if Wang Liqiang is a fraudster, how can he and his wife and children get visas to go to Australia? The video of the trial was quickly found to be flawed and taken off the shelves. After Xiang Xin was detained by Taiwan, the Taiwan side took out a photo of Xiang Xin and Wang Liqiang, which was not denied at all. The government's statement is in a south-to-north tone and is self-defeating, which directly damages the credibility and authority of the central government.

When Taiwan cooperated with Australia, Wang Liqiang was brought out when Xiang Xin and Gong Qing were both in Taiwan. After this, Xiang Xin and Gong Qing were detained in Taiwan and could not leave. This is similar to Meng Wanzhou being detained while transiting Canada, that is, people will cast a net there, waiting for you to throw yourself in the net.

In dealing with the Hong Kong issue, I have also been constantly catching mistakes. Originally, it was not a big deal. Once I admitted my mistake and withdrawn the regulations, the disturbance was calmed down. Finally, I still have to say the word "withdrawal". Then the army was used to threaten the city, but the army was unable to enter the city, and the Hong Kong police launched a killing spree, just to drive more Hong Kong people to the brave faction. The district council election misjudged the situation, and after losing the election, they set up an independent review committee, exposing the confidence of Qian's lack of skills. In short, in the past six months, the CCP and Carrie Lam have not done one thing that is beneficial to calming the disturbance in Hong Kong.

Why is a government so clumsy? The fundamental reason is that Xi Jinping consolidates power in one hand. When Xi Jinping moves chess irregularly, the people under him have to speculate on the holy will, preferring the left to the right. As a result, one big Buddha is created, and in the end it is up to Xi Jinping to face it.

There is a video on the Internet. A resident of a certain city rode a tricycle into the city and was stopped by the traffic police. The man negotiated with the traffic police and asked the traffic police to show the police identity certificate, saying that they have no right to wear police uniforms if they do not have a certificate. The traffic police said that according to the regulations, tricycles cannot enter the city. The man said that you should show me the relevant laws. In short, this person's methods of dealing with traffic police are almost all learned from Hong Kong people.

Many liberal intellectuals in mainland China, such as Zhang Lifan and Gao Yu, openly support the protests of Hong Kong people, and there are even more sympathy and secret support in the grassroots society. Even if the government keeps smearing it, people who pay attention and seek the truth through various means will always understand the ins and outs and the right and wrong of this anti-extradition movement. With the sharpening of social conflicts in the mainland and the harsh economic environment, the grievances of the people and the influence of the Hong Kong people's struggles will inevitably lead to a chemical reaction, which will lead to a larger-scale political storm.

The most important thing is that we must persevere. If we persist, we can have a profound impact on the mainland, and the interweaving of internal and external factors can promote great changes in the mainland.