Post-pandemic era

Recently, I forced myself to do some influences and changes on non-profit organizations in the post-epidemic period. Unexpectedly, the more I think about it, from personal clothing, food, housing, transportation, sports, tourism, religion, and office; to commercial retail, manufacturing, agriculture, logistics; public utilities infrastructure, public health, education; and politics and financial currency. once again.

I didn't want to write a long story, so I chose to write only the main points.

Clothes

• Declining demand for commercial clothing
• Demand for sportswear will increase
• Spend more time at home and wear comfortably at home
• Fat clothes sell better (you know what)

Food

• Community group buying channels are more important
• Offline supermarkets speed up learning the layout and warehouse distribution system of Hema Xiansheng, and connect online and offline
• Video teaching cooking and then ordering food is also a good way to enter the house
• Frozen products will also be more and more accepted because they can be stored for longer and there are more types of imports. There will be higher requirements for the cold chain supply chain

live

• Staying at home most of the time, housing environment becomes especially important
• If you work remotely, you can move out of the city center and enjoy more space and better air
• In addition to looking at the school district when buying a house, you will also consider the community environment more, and the demand for being close to the subway will be weakened.
• As long as the policy can be relaxed, the replacement demand will support the slow growth of house prices

Row

• Subway is convenient but risky; taxis and car-sharing are better but still risky
• There will be more travel by private car because it is safer. Therefore, the traffic jam situation has not eased because of the epidemic.
• The demand for shared bicycles will not be greatly reduced because everyone reduces travel, after all, it can reduce contact with people

sports

• Demand for home workouts has increased significantly
• Increased demand for outdoor hiking on weekends (safer than indoors)
• Gym savage growth is over. The gym adopts an appointment system, and people go to the gym more to have a coach to accompany them
• More and more people are running because they don't have to touch people

travel

• Under the quarantine policy, corporate travel will be minimized, seriously affecting the aviation industry
• In the short term, everyone has lingering fears about cruise ships, but in the long run, the public is forgetful, but this time it may take longer
• The demand for domestic travel and local travel will increase. After all, everyone is eager to go out and have fun
• Driving to B&Bs around the city on weekends to avoid crowds, the demand will also increase

religion

• Going to church services is basically stopped, because gatherings of many people are at high risk
• In China, the government is also happy to see everyone stop religious activities, and the party wants the public to believe in them
• The lifting of the ban on religious places may be the last batch to be lifted after the epidemic, if it can still be lifted

office

• Zoom and other web conferencing systems become an integral part of businesses' digital transformation
• Corporate livestreaming to communicate with partners and customers becomes the norm
• Enterprises will let employees work remotely, reducing the demand for office space, and their own offices can be turned into hot seats
• Small companies may not need an office at all, and can share office when needed offline
• The digital transformation of all links within the enterprise will also accelerate. Many companies already have ERP and CRM. Next HRM, cash management system, RPA, warehouse automation will be the next wave
• Rent drops, WeWork reborn
• Commercial real estate prices fall and need to find new operating models
• Wage growth slows or even decreases
• There are more and more middle-aged unemployed, but as long as there is no mortgage burden, life is still ok.

retail

• Live streaming channels continue to grow
• Community group buying channels will also share the market share
• Daily necessities and fitness products that focus on smart home and guaranteed quality/cost-effectiveness like Xiaomi will be very popular. After all, the income of the public has not increased much, but the quality requirements have increased a lot.
• Big data and AI-based digital marketing companies continue to see strong demand
• Taobao and JD.com's e-commerce platforms continued to grow (business flow).
• In addition to Alipay and WeChatPay, central bank electronic currency may also become rigid demand (cash flow).
• But at the same time, it also means that the requirements for offline logistics efficiency are getting higher and higher (logistics)

FOOD

• Chain stores reduce stores, strengthen online services
• Contactless ordering, customers occupy less seat time
• Offline catering needs to focus more on experience, the density of tables is reduced, and the price may also increase
• The store is reduced, the kitchen is enlarged, and the online and offline services are integrated.

manufacturing

• After a high degree of data, the production of the brand will create a C2M model (Consumer-to-Merchant)
• Supply and demand no longer rely on market research or managerial experience. Data tells brand owners what consumers need, reducing inventory waste and inventory division.
• Enterprise-to-supply chain management requires more AI/Machine Learning to support decision-making

agriculture

• In addition to realizing the importance of health during the epidemic, the metabolism of the post-70s and post-80s generation in China has begun to slow down, and the demand for healthy food has already been on the rise.
• Although China has had artificial meat for a long time (using beans to make meat-like taste), recent foreign technologies such as Beyond Meat and Impossible Meat will promote the development of domestic artificial meat.
• Let humans eat more plant protein, the carbon dioxide of animal husbandry can be greatly reduced, global warming can be slowed down, and environmental protection girls will not have to frown all day long

logistics

• Because business flow orders are more online, offline logistics also need continuous digitization and seamless business flow cooperation
• The express delivery industry is already divided among Ali (three links and one delivery), JD.com and SF Express
• Food delivery is supported by Ali Ele.me and Meituan. Didi delivery is unreliable.
• Digital acceleration of trunk lines and cold chains
• Digital logistics companies are equally favored as companies that use digital tools to empower traditional logistics

Infrastructure

• In order to protect GDP, governments around the world should speed up the launch of various infrastructure projects. Large infrastructure projects also help boost employment
• Smart construction sites will also accelerate development
• China develops new infrastructure
• 1. Information infrastructure
• - Communication Network Infrastructure - 5G, IoT, Industrial Internet, Satellite Internet
• - New technology infrastructure - artificial intelligence, cloud computing, blockchain, etc.
• - Computing infrastructure - represented by data centers and intelligent computing centers
• 2. Converged infrastructure
• - Deep application of Internet, big data, artificial intelligence
• - Smart Transportation Infrastructure, Smart Energy Infrastructure
• 3. Innovation infrastructure
• - Major science and technology infrastructure, science and education infrastructure, industrial technology innovation infrastructure

public health

• There is no doubt that governments need to increase funding for public health
• Everyone has significantly reduced going to the hospital to avoid cross-infection, and the pressure on hospitals in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou to accept patients from other places has also eased.
• Everyone began to adapt to the online light consultation. Growing demand for Internet pharmacies
• Increased public awareness of hygiene. Global demand for disinfectants and masks continues

educate

• Graduates after 2020 may be unemployed after graduation
• Government will expand recruitment of civil servants to attract graduates
• Colleges and universities will increase the admission of master students to alleviate the unemployment problem of graduates
• The government's guidance fund may be re-introduced (in line with the development of new infrastructure), but also to increase employment opportunities
• Companies may open remote internship opportunities for graduates
• After several months of online classes, traditional schools will use live classes as an auxiliary teaching method, integrating online and offline.
• Live classes will also promote equality of educational resources
• Students' self-learning ability has also been greatly improved. Learning new skills on YouTube has become common abroad. There will be more and more learning video content in China

Charity

• In 2020, public welfare organizations will generally have difficulty raising funds and will rely more on old donors and Internet platforms
• In the long run, the public welfare industry needs digitalization to improve targeted poverty alleviation and more effectively help disadvantaged groups
• Blockchain can increase the transparency and recourse of donations, digital currency can give unbanked population access to their own e-wallet accounts
• Crypto startups will be an innovative force for digital public welfare
• Public welfare organizations lack IT capabilities due to financial reasons, and digitization needs to rely on third-party digital service providers
• Companies will accelerate their embrace of public welfare, part of the so-called brand value. Non-profit organizations need to have continuous innovation capabilities to meet the needs of enterprises

domestic politics

• The stability of the existing regime in the country depends on the stability of the society
• Stability maintenance continues to be severe
• The governance of Hong Kong will only continue to be tightened with high-handed means, and will not take into account the eyes of the world
• Hong Kong people will gradually immigrate. After all, before 1997, many families had already obtained foreign passports for today.
• Even if the regime changes, there is a high probability that the two factions in the party will elect another leader, rather than promoting universal suffrage as in Vietnam
• Because of the jump in political education and economic level, the current level of young people's support for the party is unimaginable.

International Politics

• China is the enemy of the whole world (except for African friends)
• Countries around the world will try to reduce their reliance on Chinese supply chains
• The United States will go all out to crack down on China, taking the ban on chip supply to Huawei as an example, and impose more sanctions on China

financial currency

• Led by the United States, global central banks are releasing water
• Despite this, everyone still thinks that the dollar is more safe-haven than gold for the time being
• After China, the central banks of various countries will accelerate the launch of sovereign digital currencies, which can release water more accurately
• The release of water continues to push up asset prices, including real estate, stocks, and digital currencies
• Traditional industries such as airlines, retailers, and chain stores will go out of business one after another. But this time the bank was not affected.
• In addition to Buffett, the public will also begin to feel that the asset bubble is too high, and the central bank will release water uncontrollably, so they will start to choose Bitcoin as an asset for preservation and appreciation.
• Traditional funds are also starting to accept Bitcoin as a new asset class
• If compliant digital currency exchanges (such as Kraken) can be listed on traditional exchanges, it will mark a new convergence in the financial world