The Trans-Himalayan Railway Survey is Coming: How Nepal Views the Rise of China under the Threat of India

On August 10, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Nepalese Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka in Qingdao. On August 11, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a press conference that the foreign ministers of China and Nepal agreed to build a trans-Himalayan three-dimensional interconnection network. Experts will be sent to Nepal to carry out reconnaissance within the year.

Looking back on the Trans-Himalayan railway plan, the earliest news came from the China Daily on April 9, 2015, which reported that China and Nepal were considering building a railway across the Himalayas, extending from Shigatse to Geelong on the border between the two countries. , with a total length of 540 kilometers. On June 21, 2018, China and Nepal signed the "Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport of Nepal on Cooperation in Railway Projects" and the "Infrastructure of the Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China and the Government of Nepal" in Beijing and the Ministry of Communications Protocol on Nepal's Transport of Goods by Roads in China's Tibet Autonomous Region, laying the foundation for the construction of the railway between the two countries.

However, this project is far more difficult than the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and cannot be accomplished overnight. In 2015, Xinhua News Agency interviewed Chinese tunnel and underground engineering expert Wang Mengshu (who passed away in September 2018) to analyze the feasibility of the Sino-Nepalese Trans-Himalaya Railway. At that time, Wang Mengshu said that to build the Himalayas Tunnel, from the lead project to the opening of the tunnel, at least 10 billion yuan was needed; as for the construction period subject to external conditions, it would take about 10 years. Therefore, even if China and Nepal can successfully start the reconnaissance in 2022, the project will be carried out over the years.

But despite this, the formation of the reconnaissance plan still symbolizes the higher level of China-Nepal relations. In addition to the progress of the railway issue, the zero-tariff treatment granted by China to Nepal for 98% of tax items will also come into effect on September 1, which will help expand Nepal's exports to China. Jointly build the "Belt and Road" implementation plan, and convene a joint economic and trade committee and a trade unimpeded working group within the year. From railways to economic and trade interactions, the relationship between China and Nepal is warming.

From the perspective of geopolitical structure, Nepal, as a small South Asian country adjacent to India, chooses to get closer to the rising China, not only for economic considerations, but also for the security concerns of checking and balancing India.

India's Dominance Against China's Rise

First, the geopolitical situation in South Asia is a typical pattern of power concentration among major powers.

Under this situation, India has long dominated the affairs of South Asia by virtue of its own geographical, military and comprehensive national strength advantages, and has shown a strong tendency to dominate and control the surrounding small countries; although small countries are dissatisfied with India's "backyard diplomacy", First, it cannot fight against India alone, and secondly, it lacks the basis and mechanism for cooperation with other small South Asian countries, so it cannot fundamentally shake the unbalanced structure of India's dominance of South Asia. Under this situation, the geopolitical issues in South Asia have long been occupied by frictions centered on India, including the India-Pakistan conflict, as well as the control and anti-control struggles between India and the small South Asian countries.

However, this asymmetrical relationship of dependence and struggle is gradually being changed by the rise of China. Since the 21st century, with the gradual increase in the trade volume between China and South Asian countries, the economic dependence of small South Asian countries on India has gradually declined. After the Belt and Road Initiative was formed in 2014, China's direct investment in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and other countries far exceeded India's local investment. Taking the foreign investment data released by the Central Bank of Nepal in 2019 as an example, China Direct investment in India is as high as US$140 million, compared with only US$27 million in India.

In all fairness, China’s investment is not motivated by political interference in South Asia, but is more about the layout of the market and industry. However, for small countries that hope to enhance their diplomatic autonomy, China’s emergence has become a “geo-hedging” operation by itself. Opportunity to counter the threat of India, both in Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Taking Nepal as an example, in its strategic position, as a “land-locked country” in the Himalayas, it is surrounded by India from east, west, south and south. It is not as good as Sri Lanka, which can use its geographical advantage facing the sea to carry out multilateral diplomacy and use the power of extraterritorial powers to balance India’s interference. . Therefore, since independence, Nepal can only rely on India's "safe haven" for many years. Seeing that under the name of creating a "security community" in the foothills of the Himalayas, India has made Bhutan a "protectorate", annexed Sikkim, and gradually threatened itself. national security.

However, in terms of economic and trade relations, India is also Nepal's largest trading partner. According to the statistics of International Trade Center (ITC) in 2019, Nepal's main export destination country is India, accounting for 68.7%, followed by the United States only accounting for 10.3%; the main source of imports is also India (63.1%), ranking The next best China is only 15.7%.

Under this circumstance, Nepal's hedging strategy must use China's presence in South Asia as much as possible without affecting economic development to increase its confidence in competing with India. Therefore, in practice, it can be found that Nepal has developed economic relations with China and India at the same time in recent years, but in its external appearance, it often emphasizes cooperation with China, in order to balance India's influence on Nepal; If it strengthens or even jeopardizes the basis of economic interaction between the two countries, Nepal's pro-China situation will become more obvious.

Indian threat fuels hedging strategy

Looking back on the past, Nepal's participation in the economic cooperation project advocated by China and India at the same time is a demonstration of the hedging strategy.

On the side facing India, Nepal joined the India-led "South Asia Growth Quadrangle" (SAGQ) initiative in April 1997. Other members include small South Asian countries such as Bangladesh and Bhutan. Mechanism", this initiative was gradually transformed into the so-called "Mengbu-Indonesia subregional cooperation" after 2013. In India's vision, it hopes to integrate the highway, railway, inland waterway, aviation and power systems of several countries to create a Excluding Pakistan’s comprehensive sub-regional connectivity system; in addition, Nepal also joined the Indian-led “Bay of Bengal Multi-Sector Economic and Technical Cooperation Initiative” (BIMSTEC) in 1997, hoping to connect the “mountain economy” with the “blue economy” ".

At the same time, however, Nepal has also responded positively to China's economic projects. Since 2015, China and Nepal have signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative and the Protocol on China-Nepal Transit Transport Agreement. Since then, Nepal will be able to use ports in Tianjin, Shenzhen, Lianyungang, Zhanjiang, and Lanzhou. , Lhasa, Shigatse dry port, trade with third countries. Although this move cannot change the reality that India dominates Nepal’s trade volume in the short term, it has indeed caused tension and anxiety on the Indian side. The Indian media even reported on the signing of this transport agreement and analyzed whether it would affect India’s Nepal's trade advantage.

However, as mentioned earlier, Nepal is more hoping to use the atmosphere of "China-Nepal friendship" to offset India's possible security threats and increase its bargaining chips with India, rather than really want China to replace India and become the As China's largest trading partner, after joining the "Belt and Road" project, its economic and trade interaction with India remains stable, while China's proposals sometimes encounter soft nails. For example, when Wang Yi visited Nepal in March 2022, the two sides signed 9 agreements and documents between China and Nepal on the 26th, but none of them were related to the "Belt and Road". At that time, Nepalese media disclosed that it was because of the Nepalese side's many asking prices. , leading to the stagnation of relevant negotiations.

On the other hand, India's long-term threat will force Nepal to seek support from China, especially the blockade that affects the economy and people's livelihood. For example, in 2015, Nepal passed the First Amendment to the Constitution. Since the case failed to meet the independent state-building requirements represented by the Madisi, an Indian minority in Nepal, the latter launched large-scale violent demonstrations, while India took advantage of the situation. The wind ignited and imposed an unofficial blockade on Nepal for up to six months. This move, which jeopardized the economic interaction between the two countries, made Nepal's hedging strategy show a clear pro-China tendency. Not only did it hold its first joint military exercise with China in 2017, but it also refused to participate in India-led Bangladesh, Bhutan and " The National Military Exercise of the Rim of the Bay of Bengal Multi-Sector Economic and Technical Cooperation Initiative, and subsequently announced a joint exercise with China in the same year.

At present, under the mobilization of the United States' Indo-Pacific strategy, India's willingness to intervene in the surrounding small countries and further dominate South Asia has increased. From this perspective, great power competition has indeed intensified Nepal's strategic pressure. However, from the perspective of Nepal’s national interests, the stronger the tendency of the US and India to interfere in Nepal, the stronger the demand for the latter to strengthen cooperation with China to achieve strategic hedging. This may be the background for the formation of the China-Nepal Trans-Himalayan Railway Exploration Plan. In the foreseeable future, China will still play a prominent role in Nepal's hedging strategy.

Original published URL:

2022.8.17

The Trans-Himalayan Railway Survey is Coming: How Nepal Views the Rise of China under the Threat of India | Hong Kong 01 https://www.hk01.com/sns/article/804876