Putin's arrest warrant: ICC International Criminal Court wanted for war crimes, how to arrest Putin?

"N ways to arrest Putin: Ask the police to arrest? Put Putin in a coup? Send people to kidnap?... Hold a judo competition and then capture?" ICC International Criminal Court officially issued "Putin's arrest warrant" last week "Although the outside world generally believes that the ICC's arrests have little real benefit, it is unlikely that Putin's arrest will actually happen; Russia, which has not joined the ICC, also disagrees with this, and interprets it as "the Western countries' attempt to subvert Russia. regime", but are arrest warrants really useless? If it is really going to be executed, what are the ways to capture Putin?

The ICC "International Criminal Court" established in The Hague was established in 2002 in accordance with the "Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court". Prosecute and try mainly against individuals and organizations suspected of committing genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and crimes of aggression. Although the ICC is not affiliated with the United Nations, the operation of its organizational mission has a close relationship with the United Nations Security Council. More than a year after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine , the ICC raised the possibility of war crimes prosecution against Putin in March 2023, and then formally issued an arrest warrant for Putin on March 17.

The ICC does not have a law enforcement unit like the bailiff. Therefore, under normal circumstances, the member states of the ICC are usually assisted in the arrest. However, Russia is not one of the member states. It is relatively possible that when Putin visits an ICC country, the local country cooperates. Make arrests. It's just that such an intuitive idea must be within Putin's calculations, and even if there is an outbound visit, there may still be various difficulties in implementing it in practice.

Although the ICC also expected that the feasibility of the arrest warrant was minimal, it still emphasized the issuance of the arrest warrant to the outside world, which still put pressure on Putin's visit schedule and diplomatic stance. Some European and American media have also observed that this may also embarrass Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is visiting Russia, in terms of moral stance—but judging from the results of Putin’s lightning visit to Ma Libo and the mutual goodwill between Xi Jinping and Putin, China and Russia seem to feel no embarrassment at all about the arrest warrant.

▌Putin guilty: wanted arrest warrant issued by ICC

The ICC officially issued Putin's wanted arrest on March 17, 2023, and the reason for his "guilty" was the "illegal transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia" that had been investigated by the ICC, the United Nations and other international agencies before. After the aggression, a large number of Ukrainian children were forcibly removed from their home country and transferred to Russian territory. (For war crimes prosecution, please refer to: "Is Prosecuting Russia Useful? ICC's War Crimes Prosecution: Russia Attacks Ukrainian Civilian Facilities, Abducts Children" )

Regarding the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children, the ICC determined that Putin was directly responsible, and issued an arrest warrant for Putin after the prosecution. Along with Putin, the Kremlin's presidential commissioner for children's rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, who was directly involved in the implementation of the plan, also said publicly that "this is Russia's approach out of humanitarian considerations", and according to Livova-Belova, at least 350 Ukrainian children have been sent to Russian families, and more than 1,000 children are waiting to be placed.

Not long before the prosecution, in February 2023, the Yale Humanitarian Research Laboratory published a report stating that at least 6,000 Ukrainian children had been sent to "re-education" camps set up by Russia since the Ukrainian-Russian War. These camps use the name of "holiday camp" or "summer camp" to deceive some Ukrainian parents in this way and send their children to the camp. Unexpectedly, they never return. After the follow-up and investigation, it was found that Russia systematically and systematically transferred Ukrainian children (for the first-line family cases, please refer to the interview with Chen Yanting, an independent reporter in Ukraine: "Kherson Disappeared Children: The Mystery of Russia's "Re-Education Camps" > ).

The arrest warrant for Putin is a rare "head of state" level wanted in the world. Although in the ICC investigation, deliberation and prosecution stage beforehand, the outside world does not think that the ICC can play a substantial role. Whether it is targeting Russia's war crimes or arresting Putin, the symbolic meaning is greater than the actual implementation; however While issuing the arrest warrant, the ICC also emphasized that Putin's arrest warrant may have a "deterrent" effect.

Judging from Russia's current international situation, the ICC's arrest warrant seems to have created a certain degree of diplomatic pressure. Shortly after the arrest warrant was issued, Chinese President Xi Jinping will start a visit to Russia on March 20. , is expected to start talks with Putin. One of the focuses of outside discussion is whether Putin's friendly meeting with this "war criminal" will cause embarrassment in the international image after Putin has been issued a wanted by the ICC. But neither China nor Russia is a member of the ICC, and the two sides obviously don't mind about it. It is even more impossible for Xi Jinping to assist in the arrest of Putin under the arrest warrant of the ICC. So how can Putin be caught?

▌Catch Me If You Can: How to catch Putin?

To execute the ICC's arrest warrant, the first problem is that the ICC does not have a law enforcement unit like the judicial police, and the arrest operation needs to rely on the cooperation of all ICC member countries. At present, there are 123 member countries of the treaty, including Germany, Britain, France, Japan, etc., but the United States , China, Russia, India, and Ukraine have not joined; the Republic of China, which cannot "normally" participate in the affairs of international organizations, is not The signatory countries of the ICC (for the United States not joining the ICC, and the past accusations of war crimes against the US military in the Afghan war, please refer to the issue of US President Trump and sanctions on the ICC in 2020 : "Firewall for war crimes? Dissatisfied with the investigation of the US military: Trump authorizes sanctions against "International Criminal Court"> ).

Since Russia is not a member state of the ICC and does not recognize the effectiveness of the ICC's practices, as long as the Putin people are still in Russia, unless there is a change, the ICC basically has nothing to do.

Therefore, the first and most intuitive way to arrest Putin is: "when Putin visits an ICC country, arrest him in that country" - although legal and reasonable, the possibility of this situation happening is extremely small . The first reason is that it is hard to imagine that Putin would personally visit a state party of the ICC in such a situation; the second is that even if Putin really visits, whether the country is willing to cooperate with the ICC to arrest Putin will not be possible without coercive force. Hard to say.

For example, if Putin visits Afghanistan, one of the member states of the ICC, in terms of current Russia-Afghanistan relations, it is very likely that Afghanistan will not cooperate with the arrest. In fact, there have been cases of ignoring arrest warrants in the past. The former Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir, after being issued an arrest warrant by the ICC, still arrived in South Africa and other ICC member countries normally for visits, and was not troubled or arrested. .

The second method is "Putin was extradited after he stepped down." However, the conditions for creating this method are that the internal regime in Russia must first be subverted and Putin was ousted in a coup before it could evolve into extradition. However, just like the example of Bashir in the previous article, after the Sudanese coup in 2019 , although the Sudanese military had promised to transfer the imprisoned Bashir, Sudan has not yet handed over Bashir to the ICC. Therefore, even if there is a coup in Russia and Putin is imprisoned, it may not be taken for granted whether he will be sent to the ICC headquarters in The Hague, Netherlands for trial immediately.

It is worth noting that Russia has interpreted the ICC's arrest warrant as "a conspiracy by western European and American countries to encircle Russia and attempt to overthrow the regime." They are all looking forward to the collapse of the Russian regime itself, a coup by internal dissidents, or the seizure of power by instigating "anti-Russian elements" terrorist attacks. The "Guardian" pointed out that to a certain extent, the ICC's arrest warrant will become a propaganda material for Putin to consolidate his rule internally and emphasize Russia's unity.

The third method of catching Putin is the seemingly whimsical "kidnapping", but the possibility is not zero.

If Putin personally inspects the frontline (such as Putin's sudden lightning visit to Maribor in the occupied area on March 18), or when he leaves Russia for a visit, take the opportunity to directly kidnap Putin. Although the possibility of this approach is not zero, the technology involved and the implementation are complex and extremely difficult. In reality, it is almost impossible to achieve the task as dramatically as in the movie, not to mention that the target is the head of state of the great power Russia. However, even if you are not a member of the ICC, you can also take the initiative or agree to assist the ICC in arresting. Therefore, even if Putin visits a non-ICC country, as long as you want to, the first method mentioned above can directly arrest Putin, and the third method can kidnap Putin. The probability of arrest is not impossible, and this may be what the ICC believes. Although the arrest warrant has a low probability of success, it somewhat restrains Putin's actions.

▌The "villains" prosecuted: who was arrested? Who was released?

In the past, the ICC prosecuted and issued arrest warrants to people from African countries. For example, Muammar Gaddafi, the dictator of Libya in North Africa, died in the Libyan civil war in 2011 before being arrested. Gaddafi was captured by the revolutionary army and eventually killed. Bashir, the former Sudanese, is still detained in Sudan after the Sudanese coup and has not yet been handed over to the ICC; Joseph Kony, a leader of the Ugandan armed group "Lord's Resistance Army" (LRA), was arrested by the ICC in 2005 Wanted on multiple charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity, he is still at large.

Bosco Ntaganda , the leader of a local armed organization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, was accused in 2008 of recruiting and training a large number of child soldiers under the age of 15. Later, in 2013, Ntaganda voluntarily surrendered himself to the US embassy in Rwanda. In 2019, the ICC court sentenced him to 30 years in prison. Another former Vice President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Jean-Pierre Bemba , was accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity from October 2002 to March 2003, although Bemba was arrested in Belgium in 2008 However, in 2018, war crimes and crimes against humanity were overturned and Bemba was temporarily released.

Also imprisoned and later released was Callixte Mbarushimana, accused of involvement in the Rwandan massacre, who was released a year after his arrest in France in 2010 due to insufficient evidence. The former president of Ivory Coast, Laurent Gbagbo , was arrested in 2011 on charges of sexual assault, persecution, crimes against humanity and other crimes by the armed group he led. However, after many years of trial, Gbagbo himself was acquitted in 2019. Released in court.

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