Zhang Nianchi's "Uniform Law" calls for revealing the clues of the 20th Congress

On February 10, Zhang Nianchi, a well-known Taiwan-related scholar in mainland China and former director of the Shanghai Institute of East Asian Studies, published an article titled "Legislation for the unification of Taiwan is the most urgent task at present." The question is, is there no way for both sides of the strait to go other than "army reunification"?

Zhang Nianchi went on to state that those who shouted "there is no hope for peace and reunification" and advocated that we must do it as soon as possible have ulterior motives if they do not understand the Taiwan issue at all. Zhang wrote in the article that Taiwan recognizes that chaos is inevitable from "chaos" to "governance". And Taiwan independence is just "a whimper from the director of the Western powers" and will never be realized.

On this basis, Zhang Nianchi analyzed that "harmony" and "wutong" are two necessary means to maintain national unity, and there should be no contradiction. If China wants to achieve "either not to fight, but to fight, it must be rationalized. Regardless of "harmony" or "wutong", Zhang Nianchi believes that reunification should conform to three main points: First, reunification should be able to promote social progress and the development of productive forces, make the country more prosperous and strong, contribute to national rejuvenation, and have Conducive to integrated development; second, unification should make the unification party convince, get more benefits and benefits, so as to jointly create a better home; Anxiety and fear.

Zhang Nianchi finally called for the urgent task of creating a "Unification Law", which covers how to "harmonize" and how to "reunify". It is "the most realistic and reasonable way". Zhang Nianchi wrote at the end of the article, "We must always maintain the strategic initiative, seize the opportunity of cross-strait reunification, seize the opportunity to do a series of preparations for Taiwan's legislation, law enforcement, military, economic, public opinion, etc., and effectively promote the process of cross-strait reunification. I firmly believe that both sides of the strait are There will be reunification, the two sides of the strait will inevitably be reunified, the time and the situation are on our side, we must reunite Taiwan wisely and skillfully!"

This article did not arouse heated discussions in Taiwan, but compared with Zhang Nianchi's previous propositions, there is an unusual atmosphere in the article, which not only reflects the changes in the situation on both sides of the Taiwan Strait over the past decades, but also indicates the gradual unification of differences within the CCP on Taiwan, or for the purpose of After the 20th National Congress, the Taiwan plan left clues.

When Zhang Nianchi also talks about Wutong

First of all, Zhang Nianchi is regarded as the "dove" representative of the mainland's policy towards Taiwan, the main flag-holder of the "harmonious" camp, and in the political time and space where the "1992 Consensus" was once in command, he has received attention from Taiwan-related academic circles and officials For many years, recently, it has been increasingly besieged and suppressed by the pan-"wutong" camp.

In July 2020, Zhang Nianchi published the article "Finding a New Way Out for Cross-Strait Relations", in which he advocated "creating a new concept of one China that is acceptable to both sides of the strait", and pointed out that the unification pursued by mainland China is to prevent the disintegration of "one China". Under the premise of maintaining "relative unity", and this unity is different from "absolute unity", that is, unity by force, it is not about conquering and destroying the other side. This statement was criticized by scholar Li Yi, who believed that Zhang Nianchi and the Taiwan-related think tank circle in mainland China "never studied the reunification of Taiwan", and he called for "cleaning up the research team in the Taiwan Strait".

In all fairness, Zhang Nianchi's claim does have the "characteristics of the times" of the cross-strait negotiation and negotiation since 1992, that is, under the premise of "one China", there is room for negotiation on various details and terms. related for many years. However, it is easy to change the situation. With the populism of Taiwan's "anti-China protection of Taiwan" becoming more and more clamorous, and the growing voice of Chinese folk "wutong", Zhang Nianchi's proposition seems to have been the 1992 consensus that "cross-strait fixed the sea God's needle", and it has become unattainable from the mainstream of political science. "Out of time"; although the relevant departments saw Zhang Nianchi being criticized, they also had conditions to limit the Internet voices of Li Yi and others under the consideration of "taking the overall situation into account", and even persuaded others to equalize the relevant articles. Stop the turbulent public opinion wave.

This phenomenon made Zhang Nianchi sigh in his article that "people who support peaceful reunification are increasingly afraid to speak", which also contributed to the change in his current discussion. A careful study of his "The most urgent task is to unify Taiwan's legislation" published on February 10. Although there are many sentences with "Zhang Nianchi's characteristics", there is one difference from the past. , there should be no contradiction." This statement is the first time Zhang Nianchi, who is a "dove faction" towards Taiwan, directly mentioned the role of Wutong, and it is similar to the latest statement by Sun Yafu, vice president of the ARATS and former deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council.

Sun Yafu has talked about "Wu Reunification" twice, the first time was on October 16, 2021, when he attended the 5th "Tianfu Forum" and said, "If one day the mainland uses force to solve the Taiwan issue, it must be Taiwan independence. Forced by forces and foreign interfering forces." Emphasizes that Wutong may happen passively; the second time was on January 8, 2022, when he accepted an exclusive interview with China's Central Radio and TV program "Looking at Taihai", mentioning "harmony" and "harmony". "Wu Tong" is a dialectical relationship that is not opposed to each other, which means that the two ways are a whole that is inside and outside of each other, and can be used in conjunction with each other. Compared with his position in the "Tianfu Forum", Sun Yafu's latest discussion of "Wu Tong" has faded from the passive color, and has become a certain kind of "harmony".

Such a turn reflects the thinking adjustment of the CCP's policy related to Taiwan, and it is expressed in the words of Sun Yafu; now the leader of the "dove faction" Zhang Nianchi is also popular, which is like a strong signal bomb to the "pure harmony" camp.

"Uniform Law" discussion revived

In addition, Zhang Nianchixuan issued an article on February 10, which may echo the intention of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to be held in 2022.

As early as December 16, 2020, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council released the "National Unification Law" at a regular press conference to formulate the topic. A new signal of positive reunification. However, because the follow-up news has not come out, the topic of "Uniform Law" has disappeared from the public's field of vision like a meteor in the night sky. Now it has made a comeback again through the article of "Dove School" Zhang Nianchi. .

Looking at the content of the "Anti-Secession Law", the three "non-peaceful" red lines that have received much attention are as follows: The fact that the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces caused Taiwan to separate from China in any name and in any way: the occurrence will lead to Taiwan's separation from China. A major event that broke out; the possibility of peaceful reunification was completely lost. In all fairness, in the context of countering Chen Shui-bian back then, such norms might be enough, but looking at the situation across the Taiwan Strait today, the old law is obviously insufficient.

After the 2020 presidential election and four consecutive defeats in the four referendums, the probability of the Kuomintang returning to power is close to zero, and the party has long been occupied by "pro-American local factions". Can be criticized as a dark blue old man, living on the edge of power. With such an ecology, even if a miracle happens and the Kuomintang returns to power, its cross-strait policy can only be more pro-American and anti-communist, with the cries of "defending the Republic of China" and rejecting reunification negotiations indefinitely. This is the case for the blue camps, not to mention the green camps that rely on the populist "anti-China Baotai".

In other words, under the premise of not exerting external force, the chances of cross-strait "reunification" are slim. With the long-term rule of the DPP becoming a foregone conclusion, the fact of Taiwan's split will only become clearer day by day. Touching two of the three red lines of the Anti-Secession Law. Seeing this trend, Beijing is bound to do something. Otherwise, it will allow the situation in the Taiwan Strait to continue to deteriorate and become the festering wound of the Sino-US game.

Although the "National Unification Law" is a huge legislative project, it may not be released immediately after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Zhang Nianchi's article is still a clear trend. From the mouths of a dove and a dictator, the military system is no longer a beast, which indicates that "semi-wutong" measures such as military aircraft circumnavigating Taiwan will become the norm. Zhang Nianchi also revealed in the article that perhaps military aircraft will one day "fly over Taipei". , China "must be fully prepared, show prestige, and make peace"; and the comeback of the "Reunification Law" discussion has revealed the resurgence of the trend of "positive unification", even if Beijing did not adopt the "three key points of unification" mentioned in Zhang Nianchi's article ", "Unification Law" implied "promoting unity" force is also coming to the forefront.

In the cross-strait time and space after the "1992 Consensus" was promulgated, there was a short-lived spring blossom. However, for the short-term interests of China-US competition and vote politics, the US and Taiwan unilaterally abandoned the long-standing cross-strait tacit understanding and the China-US consensus, but they seem to think that Beijing will stay put and stick to its old policies. Zhang Nianchi's article shows that the new strategy for promoting reunification after the 20th National Congress is about to come out.

The original text was published on 2022/2/15 " Multidimensional News "