"Hong Kong Lesson 1" 27. Why are there so many public opinion polls in Hong Kong?

In fact, there are not many public opinion polls in Hong Kong. In the United States, multiple polling organizations can release polls on the president's support every week. However, compared with other places, due to the defects of Hong Kong's political system, polls have played a different role in Hong Kong, and they have even become the protagonist of political disputes.

Even in a normal democratic society, the polls themselves have a very important place. If the government's popularity continues to be sluggish, it can urge those in power to improve as soon as possible, and do not have to wait until the election to be ousted to regret it. Opposition parties can also strike accurately according to the trend of public opinion, and more effectively expose the government's mistakes to the public. Opinion polls can allow the voices of ordinary people to bypass the elite. After all, officials or opinion leaders can easily claim to represent the "silent majority" in an era without public opinion polls, but they can't talk like this in front of poll data. From the perspective of public policy analysis, polls can further dissociate the different opinions of different social classes (such as age, gender and race) on the same thing, which is also very important for academic research or policy formulation.

In Hong Kong, the role of polling is controversial. Due to problems with the electoral system, the Chief Executive is not elected by universal suffrage, and certainly cannot claim to be authorized by public opinion. Even in the Legislative Council, because of the existence of functional constituencies, resolutions often go against public opinion. In this case, there is a view that the role of polls in Hong Kong is not as good as that of a normal democratic society, because it cannot directly affect the political process and cannot put pressure on the ruling party. The next term is an example.

However, it is precisely because of the shortcomings of the electoral system that even if the Government can pass the Legislative Council with "enough votes", it cannot assume that it has the support of the public. Directly elected members of the Legislative Council can also contend with the government by claiming that they represent the will of the people. Since there is no fair election as an objective adjudicator recognized by public opinion, polls are often understood as an indirect way to determine "who really represents the public opinion". Some people even think that because the Hong Kong government is not recognized by the public like a normal democratically elected government, it cannot force unpopular policies in the short term because it has been authorized by the ballots, so its ability to resist short-term fluctuations in public opinion is rather low, which also makes Instead, the government is afraid to implement some of the more controversial and important reforms.

Since the establishment of the SAR, various polling agencies in Hong Kong have tracked and investigated various important social indicators, such as the identity of Hong Kong people, the perception of people and governments around the world, and confidence in one country, two systems, etc. The most media attention is the popularity survey of the Chief Executive. As mentioned above, the ratings of the various chief executives are inseparable from the downward trend since taking office (see Question 19), which makes the poll report sometimes used as a weapon for dissidents to attack the government. Criticism from supporters of the government, such as questioning the credibility of polls. It is a very sad event in itself that a poll that meets the strict standards of the social sciences is criticized for its results that do not correspond to individual political positions. After all, the function of polls in society is like a thermometer, only to accurately reflect the weather. If you are dissatisfied with the weather, blaming or smearing the thermometer itself is just stealing the bell, and it will not benefit the rulers in the long run.

In terms of the relationship between opinion polls and those in power, the most serious battle since the establishment of the SAR can be described as the "Lu Xiangan Incident". In July 2000, Chung Ting-yao, director of the Public Opinion Research Project of the University of Hong Kong, wrote a newspaper article accusing the Chief Executive of using certain channels to pressure him to stop polling on the performance of the Chief Executive and the SAR government, causing a public outcry. Zhong Tingyao later revealed that the president of the University of Hong Kong, Zheng Yaozong, had sent him two messages through the vice president Huang Shaolun, indicating that Tung Chee-hwa was not happy with the polls he conducted, and he also said that he might "dry" his research funding. Later, Cheng Yiu-chung admitted that the Chief Executive's senior special assistant, Lu Cheung On, had interviewed him to discuss relevant polls. In this regard, the University Committee of the University of Hong Kong conducted a public investigation and hearing and concluded that Zheng Yaozong interfered with academic freedom. Under the enormous pressure of the school and public opinion, Zheng Yaozong and Huang Shaolun both resigned before the school committee discussed whether to accept the report. Since then, the neutrality of polls has become the focus of public opinion.

Conversely, in recent years, there have been polling agencies criticized by public opinion as not neutral and unfair. For example, because the Hong Kong Public Opinion Survey Center is affiliated with the one country, two systems research center, which is considered to be pro-establishment, it will be questioned when it publishes poll results that are favorable to the government. Another organization, the Hong Kong Studies Association, is often questioned as actually serving the establishment political parties, and whether its polling on election day has been illegally used as a tool for political parties to allocate votes is a common topic in every election. While these allegations are often difficult to substantiate, the constant rumors are enough to derail the normal functioning of the polls. For example, some public opinion will advocate that whenever a public opinion poll is encountered, one should answer randomly or deliberately to answer what the establishment camp wants to hear, in an attempt to disrupt the results of the survey. But when university professional polls are also interfered with by these practices and cannot conduct objective investigations, it is actually society as a whole that suffers.

It is worth noting that in addition to the public opinion polls, the government will also conduct various public opinion polls and social research, so as not to be out of touch with the public sentiment and demands. However, in the absence of political party rotation pressure, it is difficult to guarantee how much the government and pro-government public opinion attaches great importance to these polls and social research. In the past, there has been no shortage of government and pro-government public opinion promoting a set of views that have been disproved by surveys. For example, regarding the impact of general education in middle schools on students’ political attitudes, some members of the establishment camp suggested that the subject brings students closer to local viewpoints and should be rectified. Not closer to native perspectives, and more accepting of new immigrants, it can be seen that the critical thinking encouraged by the discipline can make students more tolerant. Once again, some political parties in the establishment camp invited universities to conduct polls to study the national identity of teenagers. The results found that the criticism of the Chinese mainland by teenagers was not out of ignorance. These conclusions contrary to those of the funder appear because when the research unit of the university signs the contract with the funder, it is usually stipulated that the other party cannot selectively publish the conclusions, but must publish the full set of results truthfully.

Although university research units generally strive to maintain their credibility through academic specializations, they are often questioned. One of the reasons is that based on their neutral status, they are willing to accept the entrustment of the non-establishment camp and become a neutral arbiter of some non-establishment camp activities, such as presiding over the non-establishment camp primary elections for Legislative Council elections. But from the standpoint of public opinion in the establishment camp, they would think that this is "evidence" that these university research units are not credible.

Faced with this pressure, whether Hong Kong's universities can continue to support the polls has gradually become questionable. One of the characteristics of polls is that they often require continuous monitoring over a long period of time. For example, the same question is asked once every six months for 20 consecutive years before it can be effective in research. To sustainably support the polling operation, it is a more feasible arrangement to be supported by what the university considers to be socially basic research. A recent development worth noting is whether HKU Minyan can maintain its characteristics and uniqueness after the retirement of its director Chung Tingyao. The current arrangement is to separate the Hong Kong Civil Research Institute from the university and set up the "Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute" to survive through crowdfunding.

Polls are an important tool for understanding society. But to make good use of polls, you should understand both their functions and their limitations. Conceptually, what the polls describe is only the public’s comprehensive attitudes among limited options. It does not mean that the public understands these issues and options, and these options themselves may be insufficient. The question setting itself and various assumptions about population parameters can be significantly affect the results. The polls themselves are very expensive, and it is difficult for ordinary non-governmental organizations to afford them. Even if you have doubts about the public opinion stated by the official, you may not be able to do another poll for verification. In recent years, more and more people have home telephones, and usually only use mobile phones to communicate, so that polling agencies have to learn to adjust their survey methods to maintain representativeness. In recent years, online public opinion monitoring has emerged, but its research methods and representativeness have not yet matured.

Finally, there is no truth to the data. Even if the data collection process can be objective and fair, one-sided interpretation will create more problems. For example, in recent years, social public opinion has become polarized, and attitudes towards some major issues are often strongly disagreed and strongly agreed. If there is a dishonest analysis that only looks at the overall average and removes the polarized feature, public opinion will be ignored. Actually more than one. Polls are a useful tool for social analysis, but how to use this tool and for what purpose is a political issue, which is inseparable from the shortcomings of Hong Kong's own political system.

Further reading:
Zhao Yongjia, Shen Guoxiang, and Ye Tiansheng (2017): "Investigation of the SAR Government's Popularity", in "Twenty Years of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region" edited by Zhang Miaoqing and Zhao Yongjia, Hong Kong: Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Currie J, Petersen CJ, Mo KH (2006) The Robert Chung Affair, Academic Freedom in Hong Kong . Oxford: Lexington Books.

Online resources:
Position Report (2017) Hong Kong Studies Association Poll: Lam leads Tsang Chun-wah, March 13, 2017, https://thestandnews.com/politics/Parallel Time-Space-Hong Kong Studies Association Poll-Lam Cheng leads Tsang Chun-wah/ .