本年度第二个黑天鹅起飞

第一个是俄乌战争

第二个是英国首相约翰逊辞职

Little more than two and a half years ago, Mr. Johnson led the Conservative Party to its biggest election victory in decades. Until the next general election — on a date set by the prime minister, and potentially as late as January 2025 — only his own party’s lawmakers can force him out.

A series of sexual misconduct scandals among Conservative lawmakers have further damaged Mr. Johnson. This week’s cabinet resignations followed the departure of Chris Pincher, a deputy chief whip — responsible for disciplining Conservative lawmakers — who was promoted by Mr. Johnson despite accusations of inappropriate behavior. Ministers and other officials denied on Mr. Johnson’s behalf that he had been aware of those accusations, only for that account to rapidly unravel.

One of the reasons Mr. Johnson’s fate has been unpredictable is that there is no consensus on who would replace him, and therefore no single cabal plotting to remove him.

新首相不会比约翰逊做的更好，也许他在一些细节上查缺补漏，但对复杂的局势依旧无能为力：俄乌战争 通胀 欧盟 北约 疫情 公投风波 每一个都可能无能为力。

美国人会怀念里根与克林顿时代，英国人会在撒切尔夫人和布莱尔时代徘徊，但旧日一去不回。

今年中美还各有一场大的，药丸不丸去哪说呢?