Why European and American sanctions are useless to control the CCP

According to the analysis of German and Swiss experts, Xi Jinping's rise to power is the result of a compromise between conservative reformists liberals and radicals in a sense. Replace mass mobilization at the grassroots level with top-down state-focused reform and anti-corruption, and replace a complete revolution with national self-revolution.

Therefore, Xi's term of office will also be based on the competition between these two forces. If there are no major variables, China will not even enter the role of a superpower so early. However, things will always change. The trade war, Sino-US relations, and sanctions have finally pushed China to a more independent position. It can also be regarded as a disguised force forcing China to treat itself as a superpower at the other extreme of the Cold War, not just a superpower. It is subservient to be a "world factory". This is actually something that many Chinese did not expect from top to bottom. Even patriots, many did not expect that China would enter such a position as a superpower and an international power, nor did they expect China to begin ( Forced to a certain extent) the energy that erupted after independence, the reawakening of nationalism in contemporary China is largely an accident, (perhaps thanks to Trump and the US government for their pressing step by step).

Xi did not intend to let nationalism completely replace the party's line to lead China's development. However, after awakening, Chinese nationalism will not always be so obedient. In just a few short years, from 2014 to the present, he has firmly supported the party's leadership. Many of the nationalists have also moved towards a more radical and populist direction on specific things, adopting their own understanding of things rather than strictly following the general line. These also add more variables to China's future.

Next, the reaction of Europe and the United States will also have an impact on China's future, especially the CCP's own line. Continuing to strengthen sanctions will only continue to make the radicals with less connections within the CCP and China and Europe and the United States, and with fewer interests, further expand their influence and gradually become bigger.

After all, most of those who have property and children in the West are liberals and reformist elites who have leaned more towards the West since the reform and opening up. They have to cooperate with more radical political forces and adopt more independent and tougher means to confront Europe and the United States. Other than that, they do not have any positive help for "liberalism in China". According to the previously reprinted German professor's paper on China's tendency towards independence and autonomy, all Western countermeasures will lead China to further move towards stronger independence and autonomy, and it may ultimately benefit China, not the West.

Therefore, in response to this point, the West, especially Europe and the European Union, which still have a certain degree of autonomy at present, need to stop the escalation of sanctions and suppression of China first under the leadership of Germany and France. It is best to take the initiative to ease the situation, change strategies, and conduct research and judgment , try to understand what China needs, take the initiative to release goodwill, call for the release of Meng Wanzhou, treat the reform elites and oligarchs of the CCP kindly, take care of their interests in the West, use this time platform for easing, try to make up for their own shortcomings and solve the problems of the West Its own problems, and while continuing to compete peacefully with China, it will improve its own strength. Safeguarding the interests of the oligarchs within the CCP is the best way to suppress the further awakening of Chinese nationalism.

Conversely, with continued sanctions and confrontations, the CCP and the ruling elite will be completely overthrown, or severely weakened. The hard-liners within the CCP have re-emerged, bringing back more nationalism and even the dual output of active ideology and military in the Mao era. They regard the struggle for hegemony with the United States as a battle of life and death. For the existing Belt and Road Initiative, Europe and the United States, especially Taiwan, which is on the front line of "anti-China", I am afraid that it will be too late to regret it.