The Ukraine war could change everything (Part 2) | Yuval Noah Harari | TED (Translation: Jacky Wong)

Ukraine war? You are not alone. Historian Yuval Noah Harari provides important context for the Russian invasion, including Ukraine's long history of resistance, the specter of nuclear war, and his understanding of why Putin won all military battles even though he won Views that have lost the war. (This talk and conversation, moderated by TED Global Curator Bruno Giussani, is part of a TED membership event on March 1, 2022. The translation will be in two parts.)

BG: So one of the things that has made a comeback in the last few weeks and months is the nuclear threat. It is back at the center of political and strategic considerations. Putin has spoken of this many times, and the other day he ordered Russia's nuclear forces to be on higher alert. President Zelensky himself basically said at the Munich Security Conference that it was a mistake for Ukraine to give up the nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union. I am concerned that many countries are considering this argument. How do you see the return of the nuclear threat?

YNH: It's pretty scary. You know, it's Freudian, the return of the repressed. We thought, oh, nuclear weapons, that was something about it in the Cuban Missile Crisis and Doctor Strange Love in the 1960s. But not now. And, you know, the threat came out of nowhere after just a few difficult days on the battlefield. I mean, I'm watching the TV news when these experts are explaining to people what different nuclear weapons would do to the city or the country. It's back. But, you know, nuclear weapons have kept the peace of the world to some extent until now. I belong to a school of thought that without nuclear weapons we would have had a third world war between the Soviet Union, the US and NATO sometime in the 1950s or 60s. In fact, nuclear weapons work very well to this day. It is because of nuclear weapons that we have not had a more direct conflict between the superpowers. Because obviously this will lead to mass suicide. But the danger is still there, and it always has been. If there is a miscalculation, the results can be existential, catastrophic.

BG: At the same time, you know, starting in the 1970s after Cuba and Berlin, we started to build an international institutional framework that would help reduce the risk of a military confrontation with nuclear weapons, and we used a lot of tools, from arms control agreements to those aimed at building confidence or direct communication measures, etc. In the past decade or so, however, these means have gradually fallen into disuse, so we are even more at risk than at the end of the last century.

YNH: Totally agree. I mean, we are now reaping the neglected bad fruit that has been around for years. Not just about nuclear weapons, but about international institutions and global cooperation. We built humanity in the late 20th century based on cooperation, based on collaboration, based on the consensus that our future depends on cooperation. Otherwise we will become extinct as a species. Because we all live in this house. But over the past few years, we ignored it and we stopped fixing it. We allowed it to get worse and worse. And, you know, it's crashing now or eventually. So I want people to realize before it's too late that we don't just need to stop this terrible war, we need to rebuild the international fabric, and together we need to repair the planet that we all live in. If the nuke falls, we'll all die.

BG: In the audience, we have Lola, I don't know where she's from, she grew up in Lebanon. She said, "I've been through wars and I've slept on the ground and I've been breathing fear. My experience has taught me that the claim that we can learn in war is absurd. These people keep talking about strategy, power, Budget, opportunity, technology. But what about human suffering and psychological trauma?" I think what she's asking is what will be left of war for human suffering and psychological trauma in the future?

YNH: Yes, my view is that these are the seeds of hatred and fear and pain that are being planted in the minds and bodies of tens of millions, hundreds of millions of people right now. real. Because not only in Ukraine, but also people all over the world. These seeds will bring terrifying harvests and terrifying fruits for decades to come. That's why it's so important to stop this war now. The war continues every day, and it will plant more and more of these seeds. And, you know, like this war right now, its seeds were largely sown decades, even centuries ago. Part of the Russian fear that motivates Putin and those around him stems from painful memories of past Russia invasions, especially in World War II. Of course, what they are doing now is a terrible mistake. They are recreating the same stories they should learn to avoid. But sadly, this war is the terrible fruit of the seeds sown in the 1940s.

BG: That's the fact that you said in the same article that the country is ultimately built on the story. So these seeds are the stories we start to create now. The Ukrainian war is starting to create stories that have implications for the future, and that's what you're talking about.

YNH: Some of the seeds of this war were planted during the siege of Leningrad. So it's bearing fruit now in the siege of Kyiv, and then it's probably horribly bearing new fruit in 40 or 50 years. So we need to cut it, we need to stop it. You know, as a historian, I sometimes feel ashamed or responsible, and I don't know what historical knowledge does to people. Because I've been watching all the world leaders talk to Putin in recent weeks, and Putin often tells them history. I think Macron had a discussion with him for five hours, and then Macron finally said, "Most of the time Putin is telling me history." As a historian, I think it's my profession, in a way I'm ashamed that this happened. With what I know about my country. In Israel, too, we endure too much history. I think people should be free from the past and not repeat these histories over and over again. You know, each of us should be free from the memory of World War II. The Russians are like that, and so are the Germans. You know, when I look at Germany now, what I really want to say to the Germans is, "Guys, I know you're not Nazis. You don't need to prove it time and time again. We need Germany to stand now. Come out and be a leader and be at the forefront of the fight for freedom." Sometimes Germans worry that if they talk tough, or pick up a gun, other people will say, "Hey, you're a Nazi again." I want to tell them , no, we don't think so.

BG: This is happening right now. A lot has happened in the past few weeks that would have been unthinkable 10 days ago. For me, the most interesting thing to watch is the German response and transformation. New Chancellor Olaf Schultz announced a few days ago that Germany will send arms to Ukraine and will spend an additional $100 billion to build its military. This completely upends the principles that have guided German foreign policy and security politics for decades. So this transition is happening right now, and it's happening very quickly.

YNH: Yes. I think that's a good thing. We need Germans. They are the leaders of Europe now, certainly post-Brexit. We need them, and they need to somehow let go of the past and live in the present. As a Jew, Israeli, historian, I believe that if there is ever a country in the world that will not repeat the mistakes of Nazism, it is Germany.

BG: Yuval, I want to touch on a few more things because seeing a war for the first time feels like a hybrid war that is interrelated. On the one hand, it was a traditional war, with tanks, trenches, and a lot of buildings were bombed. On the other hand, we have real-time visibility to see everything going on through mobile, Twitter, TikTok, etc. You've written a lot about the tension between old models and new technologies. What do you think is the impact in this war?

YNH: First of all, we don't know what's going on. I mean, it's amazing that we now have these TikToks and smartphones and everything else, but we don't know much, and the fog of war is still there. It is true that there is more information now, but the information is not necessarily the truth. A lot of the information is disinformation and fake news and so on. Indeed, old models and new technologies, they come together. You know, with all the talk about interconnectedness and living in the online world, in the age of Facebook and Google et al, it's a new kind of war. People are sitting in their homes in California or Australia, and they are actively participating in wars, not only by tweeting, but by attacking or defending websites. You know, in the Spanish Civil War, if you wanted to help fight fascism, then you had to go to Spain and join the international army. Now, the International Brigade is sitting at home in San Francisco. This is part of the war in a way. So this is definitely a new form of warfare.

BG: Indeed, just two days ago, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov announced via Telegram that he wanted to create a volunteer cyber army. He invited software developers and hackers and others with IT skills to somehow help Ukraine fight on the cyber front. In less than two days, 175,000 people signed up, according to Wired. So here is a defender that can be recruited almost overnight. 175,000 volunteers will fight on his behalf. This is indeed a very different war.

YNH: Yes. You know, every war brings surprises. Rather, everything is new, but sometimes everything is old.

BG: In the chat and Q&A, several people mentioned China, which of course is a big player here, although it's mostly an observer at the moment. But China's clear policy is to oppose any violation of territorial integrity. Therefore, entering Ukraine is of course a violation of territorial integrity. It also has a huge interest in a stable global economy and global system. But then it needs to tie this long-standing explicit policy to the conflicting recent close relationship with Russia. For example, when Xi Jinping and Putin met in Beijing before the Olympics, the message of this friendship spread around the world. How do you see China's position in this conflict?

YNH: I don't know, I'm not an expert on China, you know, just reading the news doesn't allow you to get into people's hearts, get real opinions and think in the shoes of the Chinese leader. But I hope they take a responsible stance. And there is actual action. Because they have close ties to Russia, they have close ties to Ukraine, but especially because they are close neighbors of Russia, they have a lot of influence over Russia, and I hope they, as responsible adults, can put out this flames of war. If not, China will lose dearly from the collapse of the global order. So I think they can win more from the return of peace, including the gratitude of the international community. Now, whether they do it or not, it's all about them. I can't predict the outcome, but I hope things can move in the right direction.

BG: You previously mentioned several European and Western leaders who traveled to Moscow in the weeks before the invasion. Warren asked in the chat: "Is the Ukraine war a diplomatic failure? If possible, could there have been some different outcomes through diplomacy?

YNH: Oh, you can understand it by two questions. Did diplomacy fail to prevent war? Yes, everyone sees this. But is it a failure in the sense that the war cannot be stopped by different diplomatic methods, or other claims? I don't know, but this time it doesn't look like it. Looking at the events of the past few weeks, Putin doesn't seem to be really interested in a diplomatic solution. It seems that he is really more interested in the war, I think, this goes back to the basic illusion we talked about Putin before, if he really cares about the security situation in Russia, then there is no need to invade Ukraine. Because Ukraine is not a direct threat to Russia. There is currently no discussion of Ukraine joining NATO, nor is the Baltic states or Poland amassing troops. Putin chose to start this crisis at this juncture, and I think the reason is that it doesn't really seem to be about security. More justification for this very deep fantasy about rebuilding the Russian Empire and denying the existence of the Ukrainian nation.

BG: Someone else in the chat room asked, "What makes this war so unique compared to many other wars going on in the world?" I would say that aside from the nuclear threat from Russia, what else?

YNH: There are a few things I want to say. First, we're seeing again something we haven't seen since 1945, which is one country trying to basically wipe another sovereign country off the map. You know, when the Americans invaded Afghanistan or invaded Iraq, although you had your opinion on it and criticized it in many ways. But there is no doubt that the United States will annex Iraq or make Iraq the 51st state of the United States. But Putin is now using that excuse to fake what happened in Ukraine, which is a very dangerous thing. His real purpose is to annex Ukraine. If it succeeds again this time, it will bring us back to the age of war. When this broke out, I was shocked by what the Permanent Representative of Kenya to the UN Security Council said. The representative of Kenya spoke on behalf of Kenya and other African countries. He told the Russians: Look, we too are a product of the post-imperial order. Just as the Soviet empire collapsed into different independent states, African countries emerged from the collapse of European empires. Since then, the basic principle in African politics has been that no matter what objections you have about inherited boundaries, keep boundaries. Borders are sacred because if we start invading neighboring countries because of borders, because "hey, this is part of our country, these people are part of our country." The invasion won't end. If this were to happen in Ukraine now, it would be a blueprint for imitators all over the world. Another difference is that we are talking about a superpower invasion. This is not a war between Israel and Hezbollah. This could be a war between Russia and NATO. Leaving aside even nuclear weapons, this completely destroys the entire world peace. Again we look back to the budget. If Germany doubles its defense budget, and then Poland doubles its defense budget, it will spread to every country in the world, which is terrible news.

BG: Yuval, I want to move from this topic to another, and I want to use the last few minutes to ask questions on behalf of the audience. Some are asking about the link to the climate crisis, especially as it relates to energy flows. Like Europe, or part of Europe, is very dependent on Russian oil and gas, which as far as I know still flows in pipelines to this day. Will the crisis develop in this paradoxical form? Will it be like the impact of the pandemic, to accelerate climate action, accelerate renewable energy, etc.?

YNH: This is hope. Europe is now aware of the danger and has launched the Green Manhattan Project, the war has accelerated what has already happened, they will develop better energy, better energy infrastructure, which will free it from oil and gas. It will also actually reduce the entire world's dependence on oil and gas. This would be the best way to destroy Putin's regime and Putin's war machine, because Russia is just the oil and gas it has. When was the last time you bought a product made in Russia? They only have oil and gas, and we all know the curse of oil. Oil is a source of wealth, but it also often supports authoritarian regimes. Because they can enjoy the benefits of oil alone, they don't need to share it with their citizens. They don't need an open society, they don't need education, they just need to drill well. So we see in a lot of places that oil and gas is actually the basis of dictatorship. If oil and gas prices fall, if they become irrelevant, it will not only weaken the finances and power of the Russian military machine, but also force Russia, Putin or the Russians to change their regimes.

BG: Okay, let me mention a heroic character that everyone is talking about, which is the President of Ukraine. Ukrainians discover they have a comedian who unexpectedly becomes the president. Now also a war president. But his impressive behavior over the past few weeks, and especially the last few days, can be seen in his response to the U.S. when the U.S. offered to help him leave Ukraine so he could continue to lead a government in exile. But he said: "I need ammunition, I don't need a free ride." What do you think of President Zelensky?

YNH: What he did was really admirable, he gave the Ukrainian people courage and inspiration, and I think he also brought that to everyone around the world. I think that Europe's swift and unified response in terms of sanctions, sending troops, etc., is also largely to Zelensky's credit. You know, when politicians are people too. He has a direct appeal to them. You know, European leaders have met him many times in person, and now watching him in Kyiv, not only him, but his family is under threat. You know, when they talked to him, he told them that this might be their last conversation. Zelensky would be dead, murdered or bombed in an hour or a day. He really changed something. So in that sense, I think he made a huge personal contribution, not just for Ukraine, but for the whole world.

BG: Sam, who's listening right now, asked a question: "Can you provide some historical context on the power and significance of economic and trade sanctions at the level they are currently in place. Previous potential empires, potential aggressors, or Has the aggressor ever been isolated and sanctioned like this?"

YNH: You know, about Putin's Russia, we need to realize again that it's not the Soviet Union. This is a smaller and weaker country. It's not like in the 1960s, there was an entire Soviet bloc surrounding it, aside from the Soviet Union. So in that sense, it's easier to isolate it. It's more fragile. Again, does this mean that the sanctions will work like a miracle, stopping the tank's advance right away? No, it takes time. But I think that the West will be able to influence Russia through these sanctions and isolation, which will be much bigger than the Soviet Union. Russians are different too. The Russian people don't really want this war, not even those around Putin. You know, I don't know them personally, but on the surface, these people, they love life. They have yachts, private jets, houses in London, castles in France. They love the good life and want to continue enjoying it. So I think sanctions can be very effective. What will the timetable be like? That will ultimately be in Putin's hands.

BG: Gabriella asked, "I remember the war in the former Yugoslavia, and the atrocities there. Is there any chance that this war could escalate into this situation?" Or a potential conflict like the former Central Asian republics?

YNH: Unfortunately, it can get to that level, or worse. If you want an analogy, go to Syria. You look at what happened to Holmes. Look what happened in Aleppo. This is what Putin and his planes and his men do in Syria. The same person stands behind the war. You might be thinking: no, no, no, this is happening in the Middle East. But this cannot happen in Europe. No, we will see Kyiv, like Homs, like Aleppo, which will be disastrous and will once again sow the seeds of hatred for years and decades. So far, we have seen hundreds of people killed, and then Ukrainian citizens are killed, possibly tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands. So in that sense, the result is very painful. That's why we need to urge leaders time and time again to stop this war, especially telling Putin time and time again, "You won't be able to incorporate Ukraine into Russia. They don't want that, they don't want you. If you keep going , the only thing you do is to create a terrible hatred between Ukrainians and Russians for generations, don't do that. "

BG: Yuval, let me ask one last question about your country. Israel has close ties to both Russia and Ukraine. It is actually home to many Russian-born Jews and many Ukrainian-born Jews. How did the country respond to the war? I'm talking about the government, and the people.

YNH: Actually, I'm not the best candidate. I've been paying more attention to what's going on around the world, I haven't paid much attention to what's going on here. Even though I live here, I am not an expert on Israeli society or Israeli politics. Of course, I see the sentiment on the streets and there is a lot on social media related to Ukraine. On the streets, you'll see the Ukrainian flag, and on social media, you'll see people putting the Ukrainian flag on their accounts. Another thing, Israel has a lot of people from the Soviet Union. Until now, they were simply called Russians. You know, even if you are from Azerbaijan or from Bukhara, you are Russian. But all of a sudden, they're all saying, "No, no, no, no. I'm not Russian. I'm Ukrainian." So, again, Putin is sowing the seeds of hatred that is spreading here as well. Russians, Ukrainians were the same not so long ago. But now, no, they are different. So the shock wave is spreading.

BG: Yuval, thank you for taking the time with us today and sharing your knowledge and perspective on the situation. thank you very much!

YNH: Thank you, I hope for peace as soon as possible.

BG: We all do it. thank you!

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