鹿馬
鹿馬

希望能在一个免于恐惧的环境下畅所欲言,且保证一定的讨论质量。尽量不仅仅做就事论事的争论,努力走从现象到概念的思考路径。

The Bankruptcy of Dynamic Clearing and the Collapse of the Soviet Union——Thoughts on Reading "Second-hand Time"

There is no need to explain why it collapsed. The important thing is how people view the collapse and how to face the sudden freedom. This determines whether we will go to freedom, or to the next collapse.

Time has changed, from dynamic clearing to unwavering, to the raging white paper movement, to today's renunciation and clearing, the development of things caught people off guard. In today's environment where the sun should be at the end of the day, the Chinese government has shown ordinary people what it means to truly lie flat, and it is unprepared to lie flat. In the absence of effective vaccines, widespread infections across the country caused people to be unable to buy antipyretics for a while, hospitals were overcrowded, and so many people died that funeral institutions were overloaded. I know that it will be a matter of time to give up clearing, but I just didn't expect that the unshakable dynamic clearing will collapse to an end.

hate liberty better than big brother

Let's talk about the history of foreigners first.

Recently, I am reading "Secondhand Time" by Belarusian writer Svetlana Alexandrovna Alexievich. It is a nonfiction book of interviews with people who lived through the collapse of the Soviet Union. The contents of this book are all the self-reports of the interviewees. The backgrounds and political views of the interviewees are also varied. However, as a person from a country that is still in power under the Communist Party, except for those unfamiliar names and place names, everything is true. So deja vu.

Many people who have experienced the Soviet era hate the Soviet Union and the oppressive system. But after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, people in the republics including Russia have very different attitudes towards the Soviet Union, and many people hate the society after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. They miss the Soviet Union and think that they are Soviet people, not citizens of the country where they are now. . They are a group of new people shaped under the Soviet system—the Soviets.

Among these people, some are still loyal to communism until now; some people have been persecuted but still worship Stalin; The victory of communism over communism is attributed to an American conspiracy; From the interviews of these people, I saw a common thread: they hated and despised liberals, and they blamed all the problems that occurred after the collapse of the Soviet Union on liberal people.

Whenever I read the interviews of these people, I have the urge to rush into the book and argue with them: Is this a problem caused by freedom? Isn't the existence of the USSR the biggest problem? Aren’t the accumulated problems of the Soviet system and the distorted Soviet people it created the meta-problem that created all the problems?

But when I calmed down and looked at the fact that after I gave up clearing, some people yelled at those who asked for the unblocking to be "lying bandits" and pushed all the sins to the young people holding blank papers, I suddenly understood The Soviets in the book, their logic is similar to those who support the ban.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in a small size - a bankrupt that is dynamically cleared

Before the collapse of the Soviet system, people worshiped the ideal of communism, but when its disadvantages became more and more obvious, people began to have a weak voice for freedom, until finally the rapid reforms led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and people became spiritually empty. Without the illusory great ideals and the good material life they expected, they began to hate liberalism and capitalism, and even missed the past, even if they were persecuted in the Soviet era.

The mental state of people before and after the dynamic reset, especially the mentality of ordinary people, is like a miniature version of the process of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Before the dynamic clearing, we laughed at foreign countries and believed that our system had the best advantage in the world. However, when the perverted blockade became more and more unable to prevent the spread of the epidemic, and instead killed countless lives because of the epidemic prevention, some freedom-loving people stood up. Come out to oppose the ban. However, when the authorities turned to herd immunity without any preparations, the medical system was on the verge of collapse, and when countless people lost their lives, those who supported dynamic zeroing, like Soviets in the East, put Those who support openness call them "lying bandits" and blame all the current outbreaks on those who fight for freedom. Little do they know that there is nothing wrong with freedom itself, what is wrong is that the Eastern Soviet regime in this new era is not prepared, and most of the people under their rule are not ready either.

Bankruptcy with dynamic zeroing will happen sooner or later, just like the Soviet model, which cannot last long. The sad thing is that before the problems accumulated to an unsolvable level, neither the Soviets at that time nor the Chinese today could shake the established system and policies until the problems broke out and swept the entire country like a flood from a dam break . When the disaster in front of us came, some people began to miss the past, and cursed those who advocated freedom—you see, they told you to be free, so many people died? As everyone knows, the problem has long been buried. There is no effective vaccine, no credible data, no scientific decision-making, and the most important thing is that dynamic clearing itself is the biggest problem. If we regard the epidemic as continuous torrential rains, isn't it because the floods were not diverted and released in time, but the dams were continuously raised to store water, and the floods were released without warning, which led to a catastrophe? There is nothing wrong with releasing water, the problem is how to release the water, must it be stored to an unbearable level and then suddenly released? Did you tell people ahead of time to get ready? Are there any measures to assist the people to escape?

Some people said that when the epidemic first started to spread, you would criticize the government for not doing anything, if it was strictly banned, you would still criticize it, and now you will still criticize it when it is released. I want to say that doing the wrong thing in the wrong way at the wrong time and repeating the same logic over and over again does not indicate that there is a problem with the system? Ignoring science, putting politics in command, bullying the inferiors and flattering the superiors, have been doing this for more than 70 years and are still not aware of it, shouldn't they be scolded? Shouldn't it be scolded for pouring dirty water on those who take risks and are willing to stand up, but turn a blind eye to the mistakes of the authorities?

A second-hand time, half of China's past, half of China's future

After talking about the miniature version of dynamic clearing and bankruptcy, let us enlarge the time scale and use the collapse of the Soviet Union as a mirror to compare China's past and future.

There are countless articles about absorbing the lessons of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The ruling class even regarded "beware of color revolutions" as one of the most important lessons learned from the collapse of the Soviet Union. The great leader even lamented that when the Soviet Union fell, "no one It's a boy." From the perspective of ordinary people, my focus is on the mental state of ordinary Soviets living in the post-Soviet era. direction.

None of us will know when the current Chinese system will be unsustainable, just like before the fall of the Soviet Union, no one thought that the powerful red empire would collapse in an instant, but when this system really reaches the point of being unsustainable, we will I can't help asking a big question mark: When the society without the control of Big Brother comes, are our people really ready to meet it?

In my opinion, the Chinese have already experienced half of the roller-coaster crisis that the Soviets experienced in the past, and may experience the other half in the future. Half of the Chinese people have experienced the painful period of transitioning from a planned economy to a market economy. The other half has not yet felt the disillusionment of the national spirit after the so-called great revival of the Chinese dream is shattered.

Let me talk about the first half first.

When I was young, it happened to be the era when the market economy had just completely replaced the planned economy. At that time, there were also voices in China criticizing various disadvantages after the reform and opening up. They were either believers in the communism of the Mao era, or their interests were damaged by the restructuring of state-owned enterprises. The workers who were forced to be laid off were mostly old people of my grandfather's generation, and the latter were mostly middle-aged people at that time. The former hates this corrupt atmosphere where money is everything, while the latter feel more that the market has deprived them of their lives—iron rice bowls are gone, and the glory of being the most advanced class of workers has disappeared under the market economy.

The thoughts and emotions of the frustrated people in Chinese society at that time were very similar to the interviewees in "Second-hand Time" who hated marketization. They also hated corruption and the exaggerated polarization between rich and poor. However, unlike the Soviet Union, China’s rapid economic development after the 21st century has smoothed out these dissatisfaction. Although corruption is rampant, ordinary people have the opportunity to make a fortune. Although the gap between rich and poor continues to expand, compared with the past, most people’s Life has improved. Compared with the impact of Russia's economic "shock therapy" after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the pain caused by the transition of China's economic system is obviously less than that of the Soviet Union, and with the passage of time, that era has become history.

Let's talk about the second half.

Among the interviewees in "Second-hand Time", many people who miss the Soviet Union claim that their motherland is the Soviet Union, and they are Soviet people. They feel that their motherland, the Soviet Union, has perished, and they just live in an "other country" established by thieves. These thieves have robbed their homeland. Although these people used to live in poverty and even suffered under this system, they were proud of the Soviet way of life. They believed that their country had the most noble ideals in the world. They did not "live for sausages", they It is to fight for the construction of communism. But when the Soviet Union collapsed, the "reactionaries" began to "slander" the Soviet system, claiming that communism was a hoax, and when party members handed back the party cards that once symbolized glory, the Soviets could not accept this reality.

Whenever I read interviewees like this, I can't help thinking, would people's mental state be similar to those of the Soviets in China without the Communist Party? The only difference is that the ideal of communism in China had already been shattered after the Cultural Revolution. After three decades of keeping a low profile, realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation—the Chinese dream for short—has become the common ideal of people in the Xi and Mao eras. However, when the reality is drifting away from this great ideal, and the so-called system advantages become system disadvantages, until the system cannot be maintained and completely bankrupt, those who are accustomed to obeying the party and following the party are accustomed to obeying the authority. Man, will they be able to adjust to life without Big Brother? Do they really understand what freedom means? Can they hold themselves accountable? Will they become "Oriental Soviets", nostalgic for that society full of great illusions? Will they curse people who pursue freedom like they curse "lying bandits" today? Will they ignore the sufferings of the Mao era and hold up the portrait of Mao Zedong? Will someone like Putin be elected to use war to bring the country into a situation where there is no redemption? When people in the future have freedom but fail to obtain the economic benefits they expected, will people attribute the success of the rapid development opportunities at that time to the institutional advantages of the Communist Party? To this, I have no answer.

Of course, I know that these problems are by no means a reason to maintain the current system, but worrying about these problems is not unfounded. This state lasted for more than seventy years, it produced generations of Soviets of varying degrees, none of us were ever free in our own country, including me, we have always lived under absolute authority, left to us The time and space to practice participating in public affairs is getting smaller and smaller, we have to accept this reality, and we have to prepare for the worst - people who don't understand and make good use of their freedom are likely to blame all their dissatisfaction to liberty, and to turn liberty into a synonym for irresponsibility.

What if you are really free?

People yearn for freedom, and it may come eventually, but not all desire it in the same way, and not all are ready for it. When one day we are truly free from the fear brought about by Big Brother, how should we face this imperfect society? How should we relate to the Soviets around us who miss Big Brother? Can we reach a consensus with them: we no longer need a grand goal of the whole society, freedom is not a means, freedom itself is an end?

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