[Comment] "Something in Taiwan" has become a major problem in Japan

Recently, many people are discussing the issue of "Whether Japan will help defend Taiwan when it encounters "Taiwan is in trouble". Indeed, the word "something in Taiwan" has recently emerged in the discussions of the Japanese news media under various exposures. But this article is not to give everyone in Taiwan a booster (if you want a booster, please go to the Taiwanese political talk show), I instead hope that everyone in Taiwan can take a step back and think about it calmly. I think some Discussions on political commentary programs, or the speeches of online opinion leaders are a bit too fast and too full.

To sum up, if, in case, we really face the situation of "Taiwan has something to do", the situation in the Taiwan Strait is on the verge of breaking out, and the only one who can fight against China's attack in the first place is Taiwan itself. Even if the United States wants to help defend Taiwan, it must come after the war begins, so we must have the ability to stand alone for this period of time until the U.S. military comes to support. What about Japan? Japan must have come after this, and it must have come to support after the US military came to help defend Taiwan. Even if Japan is closer than the United States from a geographical point of view, it must be after the US military arrives first that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces can come out. Moreover, after the US military dispatches troops, how long will it take for Japan to come out? This is actually a question mark. Personally, I think this time may be a little long, and it will be a little long for Japan to come out to support Taiwan, which is being defended by the United States.

So the point of this article is actually to tell you that, yes, there are a lot of discussions about "something in Taiwan" in Japan right now, but everyone in Taiwan shouldn't be too happy, and shouldn't regard Japan as a life-saving elixir . The only one who can protect ourselves in the first place is ourselves. The Japanese army will definitely arrive later than the U.S. military (maybe not even), so it is wrong not to put all hope on Japan.

The "right to collective self-defense" has three stages

Why do you say that the Japanese will definitely arrive later than the U.S. military? The reason for this is simple, it is because of Japan's right to collective self-defense. During the tenure of Shinzo Abe, the right to collective self-defense was lifted by amending the law. However, this right of collective self-defense does not mean "there is something wrong with Taiwan", and Japan can immediately send troops to exercise the "right of collective self-defense", which is not the case.

I think NHK's special episode last Sunday (26) night "Taiwan Strait で が ~ Mi Zhong "New Cold War" and Japan ~" explained it very clearly. To put it simply, if something happens to "Taiwan", if Japan wants to exercise its full "right of collective self-defense", it will need to go through three stages. The third stage, which is also the last stage, may be the kind of "Japan supports the United States to help defend Taiwan" as everyone in Taiwan now imagines.

The three stages are: "Significant Influence Situation", "Existing Influence Situation", and "Armed Attack Situation".

Stage 1: Significant Influencing Events

The first stage is called a "significant impact situation". Although this "important impact situation" is called "important", it is actually just a role to support friendly forces. In case there is another country's army (for example: US military), requesting Japanese support, then Japan's Self-Defense Forces can go to assist the foreign army. The meaning of this assistance is not to send troops to support the fight against the enemy, it is just a role of supporting logistics, such as providing a supply station for naval fleet refueling at sea.

Taking "something in Taiwan" as an example, it is based on the sequence of "China attacks Taiwan → the U.S. military sends troops to defend Taiwan → the U.S. military requests Japanese support". Japan will not be the active party. There will be follow-up actions.

Stage 2: Existence affects the state of affairs

The "existence affects the state of affairs" in the second stage is actually very ambiguous in the original text of the law. Basically, when a foreign country with close ties to Japan is attacked by enemy force, (this sentence means that the United States is attacked by other countries, not that Taiwan is attacked, because you have to come from the previous "important influence situation". Look), other countries were attacked by enemy forces, causing Japan to be affected.

The "presence of an impact situation" only mentions that Japan was swept to the tail of the typhoon, and it has not yet reached the level where Japan can fight back. But this state must not be too long, and it can't just be beaten all the time! Therefore, after the release of the "existing influence situation", it will soon enter the final stage.

Stage 3: State of Armed Attack

The third stage, "the situation of armed attack", means that Japan can finally fight back after being attacked.

For more details about the security legal system in 2015, you can refer to " Why Japanese Young People Oppose Security Legal System? " by Lin Yanyu in "Thinking Forum" (Part 2) - from the article "The Nine Articles of the Constitution" .

Problems stuck from first to second stage

It’s easy to understand the transition from the 2nd stage of the “presence of an influence situation” to the 3rd stage of the “armed attack situation”, but the problem lies in the time point when the 1st stage of the “significant influence situation” goes to the 2nd stage of the “existence of the influence situation” .

For Japan, if there is a situation of "something in Taiwan", in fact, whether it is "something in Taiwan" or not, Japan must not want to enter the second stage of "existing influence situation"! Because once Japan announces that it has entered the second stage, it means that Japan will be the enemy of the friendly army. At this time, the enemy of the friendly army will think that you are declaring war with me, so I will start the fight rudely. After this fight, Japan cannot choose to be beaten all the time, so it will soon rise to the third stage of "armed attack situation".

Therefore, for Japan, if there is a situation of "Taiwan has something to do" today, the US military calls on the Japanese army to come to help defend Taiwan. In the "important influence situation" in the first stage, Japan can only assist the US military in the rear, and does not need to directly confront China.

For Japan, today, China's military invasion of Taiwan, to put it bluntly, is actually "an affair of other countries." Therefore, if there is a situation of "something in Taiwan", it can be delayed after entering the first stage of "important impact situation". In the NHK special episode "Taiwan Strait で が ~ Mi Zhong's "New Cold War" and Japan~ ), there is a section of the Japan Strategic Research Forum (Japanese Strategy Research フォーラム) in August this year, using role-playing and talking on paper to simulate In the event of a situation with "something in Taiwan", what will the top management in Japan make?

The result of the simulation is that it is stuck in a slow way from the 1st stage "significant influence situation" to the 2nd stage "existing influence situation". From the military's point of view, the situation of the exercise at that time already required to enter the second stage or even the third stage, otherwise it would be too late to fight.

The concept of "something in Taiwan" is still very vague

The above paragraph is based on legal and institutional restrictions. Even if Japan has legally opened the "right of collective self-defense", if it wants to exercise the complete "right of collective self-defense", there are still many problems in system design and practice. level to face. The following paragraph is to talk about, although "something to talk about Taiwan" has often appeared on the Japanese news page recently, and related discussions and voices have become more and more, but in fact, this "something to talk about Taiwan" is still a very vague and abstract concept. It is without specifics.

Shinzo Abe is no longer the Prime Minister of Japan. Even if he leaves office, he still has a certain influence in Japanese politics, but this does not mean that his personal opinions are equal to those of the current government. as the overall trend of public opinion in Japan. Of course, the position of a specific Japanese media cannot be regarded as the general public opinion trend in Japan, especially when you do not know the position of each newspaper.

The question now is, what is the current position of the Japanese government? The answer to this question is still unclear. I'm not saying this alone, but I've seen the same in the editorials of the "Daily News" and "Okinawa Daily News", and there are also books submitted by American think tanks . To give a few examples:

Situation 1: Should Japan take the initiative to send troops?

What Japan is talking about now "Taiwan is in trouble" means that Japan wants to stand on the same front as the U.S. military. If something happens to Taiwan, Japan will send troops along with the U.S. military, so Japan now means to take the initiative to attack! ?

Basically, if you understand what I said above, you will know that the current situation should not be like this. However, the way some people speak is really easy to misunderstand. Uh... If this person happens to be sitting in the big seat today, maybe one day he will lose control and it will really become like this...?

Situation 2: Okinawa is very close to Taiwan, and I am worried that Japan's territory will be swept away

Again, Japan is standing in self-defense. Because the U.S. military base closest to Taiwan and the highest density in Japan is Okinawa, so when an accident occurs in Taiwan and the U.S. military dispatches troops to defend Taiwan, Japan stands in order to prevent Okinawa from being swept to the tail of the typhoon, so it must defend Japan (Okinawa) angle?

However, this argument is a bit contradictory. If the Japanese Self-Defense Forces have to participate in the war because of "something in Taiwan", according to the current structure, the work of assisting the evacuation of ordinary people is not the work of the Self-Defense Forces, but falls on the local local government. What kind of self-defense is this? Don't you put your own citizens first?

The above paragraph is what I shared on my personal Facebook last Saturday. In fact, NHK's special episode last Sunday night also talked about this part-in case "there is something wrong with Taiwan", if the Japanese Self-Defense Forces must support the U.S. military, Okinawa Prefecture is actually responsible for alienating the people, and the Self-Defense Forces have no spare capacity to help Okinawa. However, based on the strength of the local public sector alone, it has been determined that there is no way or ability to alienate the local residents. If the Self-Defense Forces are to assist in the evacuation of residents on Japanese soil, it is only possible to upgrade to the third stage of the "armed attack situation" (but actually there is no plan for how to do it), but by then it will be too late, early It's already called.

Situation 3: In fact, it is only a verbal statement that "peace and security in the Taiwan Strait are very important"

Personally, I think the most likely direction is that Japan has indeed been saying that "peace and security in the Taiwan Strait are very important." That's right, but the meaning of this sentence is likely to be just an appeal. I want to be a peacemaker. One mouth and two people who were arguing said, "Don't quarrel," and then there was no intention to actually join the war.

This angle is more in line with my personal understanding of the Japanese people (I have often encountered Japanese people who told me that Taiwan wants to be good friends with China, and can’t quarrel~, I want to roll my eyes), but I hear people still stay A Taiwanese friend in Japan said that now the trend in Japanese society has changed a bit. Passers-by will say "support for democratic Taiwan", but they will not discuss the issue of whether to send troops. Personally, I think this change is mainly related to the epidemic. I think Taiwan has done a good job in epidemic prevention after the outbreak of COVID-19, and I support Taiwan (probably compared to the part of communist China), not the part of "something in Taiwan" .

I think that if the voice of "Taiwan has something to say" continues to spread in Japan, there will soon be civil protest groups, and it will start in Okinawa. The editorial of the "Okinawa Daily" seems that Okinawa has no intention of letting the Japanese mainland sacrifice the people of the Okinawa Islands again in order to defend Taiwan. This is related to the memory of World War II in Okinawa (Ryukyu) (and the subsequent life experience of the US military stationed in Japan).

write at the end

Finally, I will share with you 2 submissions published in the Daily News. One is that if Japan wants to avoid an accident in Taiwan, what Japan needs most now is the consensus of the Japanese people. The Japanese people must first understand that if an accident occurs in Taiwan, it will have a major impact on Japan's own national security. The meaning of the embarrassment that is not written in the article actually includes "if the Japanese people did not build a consensus first, and did not regard 'something in Taiwan' as a crisis that would endanger Japan's national security, it would actually affect the decision-making at the moment when the incident occurred." the meaning of.

The other one is analyzed from a military point of view . Nowadays, everyone’s imagination about “there is something wrong with Taiwan” is that China has invaded Taiwan on a large scale, but in fact, with the help of the United States, China is actually not able to continue sending troops to Taiwan for landing operations ( This is my boost for everyone, but the premise is that we still must have the ability to fight against China in the first place and wait for the US military to come to support).

I am not writing this to throw cold water on everyone, but to hope that everyone in Taiwan can take a step back and calm down. In addition to looking at the general direction of the international situation, we must also take into account the internal situation of each country. Today, the voice of "Taiwan has something to say" in Japan has become louder, which is good news for Taiwan, but it is wrong not to take this matter too seriously, or even to relax because of it. After all, the only one who can protect ourselves in the first place is ourselves, not others. How can we expect others to come to the rescue if we are not prepared and show the determination to fight hard (what kind of giant baby mentality is this)?

This article was first published on 2021.12.28 on the personal website "Ishikawa Kaori's Japanese Current Affairs まとめ Translation" .