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Mr.Light|觀察室

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[Discussion] Is Inflation a Bad Thing? SBF says so!

Image source: Quoting screenshots from the Internet

On April 19, FTX founder SBF posted on Twitter "Is "Inflation" a bad thing? ” and his own views. SBF used 1 tweet and 1 palindrome to describe his analysis, he said “Is inflation a bad thing? Straightforwardly, yes! The SBF then explains that if the world's total currency value is $x, the price of bread is $y. If y goes up, the distributable wealth x goes down. cause heated debate.

Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet
Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet

The 3rd SBF says "But, really, it has to be up to you to stay the same. That is, if you convert 1 cent (Cents) to 1 dollar (Dollars), the total dollar amount is now 100 times larger The result is that the price of bread $y also increases by a factor of 100, and everyone still has the same amount of bread.

Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet

4) So what happened (ˊ commodity prices rose)?
Well, roughly speaking, over the past few years: X: up 40%, Y: up 15%, so... has the amount of bread in the world increased by 25%?

Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet

5) Of course not.
In fact, there may be ~5% *less* bread in the world:
(a) COVID --> Supply Chain Issues --> Harder to ship bread (b) Ukraine War --> Literally both Ukraine and Russia are big exporters of wheat So if the world's dollar increases by 40%, there is less bread 5%, why did the price of bread only increase by 15%?

Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet

6) Well, a fuller explanation:
x (total USD): +40%
y (bread price): +15%
Bread Quantity: -5%
"Median" $: +5%

7) Since most of the added dollars goes to the rich, they can only eat so much bread.
Causes most of the increase in x not to cause an increase in y.
But even wealthy dollars lead to higher demand for energy, which in turn leads to more expensive bread.

Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet

8) So actually we have some superimposed effects (all estimates!)
a) Burning 5% of bread due to war and COVID; +5% inflation. This is hyperinflation!
b) Print 5% money for everyone; +5% inflation. This can; inflation is just the flip side of having more money.

Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet

9)
c) Print +17.5% to the rich; they spend on things like $SPY and $BTC. There is no inflation.
d) print another 17.5% to the rich; they spend on energy and stuff, which makes bread more expensive; +5% inflation. This is "bad" inflation.

Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet

10) You cannot increase the money supply and expect it to be free.
But for the same reason, when inflation ensues, don't forget you have more dollars left!
Stock dilutions aren't free money; they're not pure dilution either. They are two sides of the same coin, perfectly balanced.

Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet

11) Except sometimes they're not perfectly balanced.
Finally, if you want to know how good things are, look at the physical objects we end up with; we have more or less of them, how are they distributed?
COVID sucks. The war in Ukraine is bad. So we have less stuff.

Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet

12) Then stacked on top is a combination of inflation/money supply increase (not hyper-correlated) and money distribution change (correlated but not pure inflation), just for confusion.

Image source: Quoted screenshot of Twitter SBF tweet

Under the SBF tweet, the palindrome was discussed enthusiastically, and it also appeared on the news page. The palindrome has both approval and disapproval. However, in such a discussion, if you can understand in detail, although there is no way to get a clear answer. I am also happy to see such an open discussion. If you are interested, you can search for SBF on Twitter to see it.
Do you think inflation is bad? Welcome to leave a message below to discuss.

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