Li Qiang's visit to New Zealand and Australia: A short-lived warmth that won't change a lasting

On June 13, Chinese Premier Li Qiang began his visit to New Zealand, Australia and Malaysia, and on the afternoon of June 18, Li Qiang's visit to New Zealand and Australia came to an end.

The two subjects of Li Qiang's visit, New Zealand and Australia, as well as the relationship between New Zealand and Australia and China, have commonalities and differences. New Zealand and Australia are neighboring countries with Anglo-Saxon populations and close ties with the United States and Britain, as well as members of the Five Eyes Coalition and important links to NATO. Both countries are economically important trading partners of China and need each other.

And there are many differences. Comparatively speaking, New Zealand's relations with China have been relatively friendly, with no overly troublesome diplomatic disputes between the two countries, and New Zealand is less involved in other countries' military and diplomatic activities against China.

Australia's relationship with China, on the other hand, has had its ups and downs, and in the last few years it has fallen to its lowest ebb since the establishment of diplomatic relations. China and Australia have been in dispute and friction for a long time because of national interests, values and some specific conflicts. Australia, as a major power, is also more actively involved in the organization and measures led by the United States, Britain and Japan to contain China, and has also established a new military cooperation system with the United Kingdom and the United States to "maintain order in the Asia-Pacific region" as the goal of "AUKUS".

However, in recent years, due to the changes in international politics, the deterioration of the situation in the South China Sea, and the changes in China's domestic and foreign affairs, both Australia and New Zealand have been actively moving closer to the United States, closely cooperating with the United Kingdom and Japan, and their tendency to confront China has become more and more obvious. Although New Zealand is relatively friendly to China, it has also moved closer to Australia's position overall. 2023 New Zealand general election, after the right-wing National Party won, the attitude towards China is relatively tougher.

China, on the other hand, has had poor relations and even conflicts in recent years with the United States and Britain, the European Union, Canada and Australia and New Zealand, and other Western countries, as well as with neighboring countries such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, China is clearly biased in favor of Russia, and China and Russia are becoming increasingly close to North Korea, Iran, and Cambodia in an attempt to counter the West. The world has become significantly re-divided, and both Australia and New Zealand are on the opposite side of China. Naturally, China has also strengthened its guard against Australia and New Zealand.

In this way, it is inevitable that China and Australia will have a long history of cold relations with New Zealand and constant conflict with Australia in particular.

This time, Li Qiang visited New Zealand and Australia and was warmly welcomed, does it mean that the relationship between China and New Zealand and Australia can be improved and return to the friendly and harmonious once?

The author's view is not optimistic. First of all, Li Qiang's visit to New Zealand and Australia is a regular state visit, i.e., a dialogue on important issues in the relationship, not an "ice-breaking trip" to turn the relationship around. Although there have been exchanges on economic and trade, military, and geopolitical conflicts, they have been mostly routine conversations that have not led to breakthroughs in improving relations.

During Li Qiang's visit to New Zealand and Australia, China and New Zealand and Australia have only reached substantive agreements on trade and commerce, but nothing else, such as geopolitical and military mutual trust, has come to fruition.

During Li Qiang's visit, both New Zealand and Australia announced that China would unilaterally waive visas for them. This would have been a major positive. However, against the backdrop of the overall lukewarm and soft confrontation between China and the West, including Australia and New Zealand, which is gradually moving towards a "hard confrontation", I am afraid that it will be difficult to arouse the enthusiasm of Australian and New Zealand citizens to go to China.

Even in the economic and trade area, where China and Australia have "something to talk about" with New Zealand, there is no great optimism. China's economy is on a downward trend after three years of epidemics and "zero" policies, as well as structural problems. China also has disputes with Australia and New Zealand over patents, market access, dumping and other issues. And the backdrop of Western confrontation with China makes doing business with China much riskier. Therefore, the Australian and New Zealand business community is not very enthusiastic about investing in China and increasing economic and trade exchanges with China, at least not as enthusiastic as they were in the late 1900s and 2010s.

There are also more specific issues that are troubling both China and Australia. A few years ago, Cheng Lei, an Australian-Chinese journalist who worked for Chinese media outlet CGTN (China International Television), was arrested by the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2020 on espionage charges and detained for more than three years, and was deported after serving her sentence. This has triggered strong dissatisfaction on the Australian side. This time Li Qiang visit, Cheng Lei attended Li Qiang and the Australian Prime Minister's meeting, just sitting in the media personnel area, but also by the Chinese side of the personnel to physically block the line of sight, and later Chinese and Australian officials also face-to-face disputes as a result. This shows that the storm over the Cheng Lei incident has not subsided and is still affecting Sino-Australian relations.

And another Australian Chinese, Yang Hengjun, a writer who worked for China's Ministry of State Security, was arrested by the Chinese side in 2019 and sentenced in February 2024 to a two-year reprieve from the death penalty. This incident also impacted China-Australia relations.

During Li Qiang's current visit to New Zealand and Australia, some Chinese dissidents and ethnic minorities also showed up to protest, and on a large scale in Australia, and exchanged insults and physical clashes with pro-Communist Chinese. China has also been accusing Australia of supporting the forces of "Hong Kong independence", "Xinjiang independence" and "Tibetan independence". The human rights issues involved behind this, the Chinese national issues, likewise overshadow the relationship between China and Australia with New Zealand, especially Australia.

Under the influence of this series of factors, as well as the background of China's confrontation with the West, and the West's watchfulness and siege of China, Australia and New Zealand's relations with China will not really warm up because of Li Qiang's visit, especially Australia and China are afraid that disputes will continue to continue.

The prolonged coldness in China's relations with Australia and New Zealand, including the loss of harmony in the otherwise cordial economic and trade relations, is due to both the Australian, New Zealand and Western camps, as well as the shortcomings of China's system and its internal and external policies in recent years, with the Chinese side of the equation being the more fundamental and difficult to change. In recent years, China's stagnant political reforms, unhealthy economic model, non-transparent institutions, uncertain (and irrational and unpredictable) policies, and policies during the epidemic have undermined confidence in China's ability to continue its friendly open-door policy, and in its domestic business and living environment. China's actions in the South China Sea, especially the recent conflict with the Philippines, and the deterioration of the situation in the Taiwan Strait have not been conducive to Chinese diplomacy and trade.

These issues cannot be resolved by a few visits, visa waivers, trade concessions, or inviting foreign guests to meetings and dinners. The short-lived warmth during the visit will not change the long-lasting chilly atmosphere of diplomatic relations. If China fails to actively reform its institutions, improve transparency and reverse the deterioration of its economic and trade environment since the Xin Guan epidemic, not only will it be unable to restore friendly relations with Australia and New Zealand, but it will also be subjected to even more cold treatment in the international arena.

（Photo from BBC）