Fire & Motion 26

Fleeting Quote

The best skill at cards is knowing when to discard.
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When you counsel someone, you should appear to be reminding him of something he had forgotten.
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Don’t think about what will happen; think about what could.

Reading

📕大債危機

[...] 泡沫的特質定義：1) 目前價格相對傳統衡量指標而言想得過高。2) 目前的偏高價格已預先反映了未來進一步快速漲價的潛力。3) 市場情緒幾乎全面樂觀。4) 購買資產的資金來自高財務槓桿。5) 買方基於透過未來的價格獲得投機利益或免於受未來漲價趨勢傷害等目的而提前購買的情況非常嚴重 (例如大量囤積存貨、簽訂遠期採購合約)。6) 新買方 (即原本未參與市場的買家) 進入市場。7) 旨在提振經濟的貨幣政策助長了泡沫的膨脹，緊縮的政策則促使泡沫破滅。

當我看到這段整理時，I can't help but thinking of what a rational market will look like. 而其中一種方法是逆向思考，例如：價格持平於傳統指標，甚至過低；未來的漲價能力尚未被反映；市場情緒穩定，甚至悲觀；資金並非來自高財務槓桿；買方的避險行為並不嚴重；市場中都是成熟的投資者，或新買家佔極少數；貨幣政策有效地控制著泡沫。

📄Stewart Brand explains concepts of change, pace

It's the combination of the fast and slow parts that give a whole system its resilience. Because the fast parts learn; the slow parts remember. The fast parts suppose things; slow parts dispose things and keeps things that are important. The fast is discontinuous (moves in quick cycles); the slow is continuous. The fast and small instruct the slow and big with accrued innovation and occasional revolutions. At the same time, and we don't respect this as much as we should, the slow and big parts control the fast and small with constraints and with constancy.

Not only focusing on the fast part, but also dealing with the constraints brought by the slow part makes changes resilient to the system.

📄Walking Taipei (part 1)

There is another way of coping with the metaphysical emptiness that you see in Taipei (as well as most of the ‘developed world’), which is about turning your own identity into what matters most to you. Fully embracing the materialism and individuality and then trying to make it fulfilling by becoming a brand.

In the context of the article, it's really the full embrace of the materialism and individuality that reinforce that emptiness. As I am living in Taipei now, I do crave of knowing what will help to break the downward cycle.

📄ChatGPT and the Imagenet moment

what are domains that are deep enough that machines can find or create things that people could never see, but narrow enough that we can tell a machine what we want?

And what are insights that are only producible if the machine has knowledge from the whole Internet, but narrow enough that human view it conceivable and trustable. A stretch, but not too much.

📄Ways to think about a metaverse

Sometimes ‘metaverse’ can feel like a catalogue of everything and anything cool that might happen in tech in the next decade - which, again, makes it hard to know what anyone saying it has in mind, if indeed they care.

But we were there, learning and experimenting, and thinking about what it might become, while knowing that might not be much. That was still the right strategy.

📄AI, ChatGPT, and Bing…Oh My

What matters is doing important work, not simply automating cheap or easy work. The tools that win will generalize to the most important problems people face.

It's the "important" one that makes the greatest impact. People do word processing or type on various fancy apps, but we stick to MS Office to write the "important" report we have in work.

[...] even in highly domain specific and advanced tooling, that massive improvements do not simply make everyone’s job easier (or vanish) but add work for people — for experts — to do more, to create more, and most of all to be humans in the loop.

More work is consolidated on less people, and more jobs are there to fill the vacancy.

Therein is the big opportunity: new tools that approach hard problems and high value prompts AND also from outset working within the developed legal framework while taking advantage of the world’s knowledge. Those have a huge advantage.

Sydney has potential to be a new kind of tool. Combine Sydney w/generative images, audio, video, and it is the genesis of an entire new era of tooling. The hallucinations, bias, randomness, and crazy are FEATURES NOT BUGS. They are what make it an entirely new creative tool.

Watching

🎥Julie & Julia

You are the butter to my bread, you are the breath to my life.

Outside Interest!

🎶Cody・Lee(李) - LOVE SONG

📹A Message that will Change Your Life