Weekly Market Memo (4/4–10/4)

The financial market is now within a high risk context. The context consists of the Fed's shrinking of balance sheet, raising interest rate of central banks, hyper inflation and economic recession. Investors (including me) become very skeptical and cautious. It is hope that I can give a clear direction in such a highly uncertain and fragile environment.

Stats

PCE 2022 Fed: 0.6% increased

DXY: 98.566

Fed Balance Sheet: 8937142

News

Finance and economy
The yield of a two-year bond exceeds the ten one. The inversion signals an economic recession.

US government has released the strategic petroleum reserve to relieve the shortage of oil supply caused by the economic sanctions of Russia.

The euro-zone inflation rate surged to 7.5%. Energy prices accumulated the most rise in inflation. European Central Bank may end almost eight years of negative interest rates. Germany is facing a high potential risk of recession if Russian oil is cut.

Chinese authority will give access to US regulators to the auditing reports of more than 200 companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq.

Trending Sector in Last Week

Crypto: Move-to-earn
US stocks: Real Estate, Non-Energy Minerals

Trend Analysis

BTC

46446 (15:00 UTC+8 4/3)

Last Analysis Review: Excellent. Just like what I hv analyzed in the last week. BTC has broken the resistance and pulled back to 44000 from 48100 in the last week.

This Week: The early stage of bull market is confirmed. In a one-week time frame, 45000 - 45500 presents as a support and start for the price to develop. 48200 is the first target for BTC to break through. 49200 is the second target to break. It may need a relatively strong momentum to break through the two resistances. Once 45000 - 45500 still acts as a support. The early bull market is still there. After the two breakthroughs, the momentum of the bull market will be confirmed as strong enough. But before that, I will not be too optimistic. It is still a very early stage of bull market, the bull market signs are pre-mature. At the moment, BTC is running a good trend.

Trend and Time Frame: In this week, it can be expected that the price will go up to and test 48200 and 49200. Within the trend, long position can be established. 45000 is the alert for the end of long side.

Ranking: 3.75/7

DJI

34828 (15:33 UTC+8 4/3)

Last Analysis Review: Good. Just like what I doubted. The market does not have any progress in the last week.

This Week: Based on the current financial context, my analysis will not be optimistic. I will describe the current trend as a positive and healthy recovery trend after a slump and v-shape re-bounce. The current market is highly fragile, a slump can be triggered anytime.

Trend and Time Frame: If 34500 is not broken, DJI will run a slightly positive recovery trend in this week. In a good recovery trend, the price will fluctuate between 34500 to 35365. In the meanwhile, the bottom and the top of the trend may move up a little bit along with the time development.

Ranking (Long Side): 3.25/7