中国面临的真正大麻烦——致保罗·克鲁格曼的一封信

   The Real "Big Trouble" of China: A Letter to Paul Krugman

【前言：前几天读了《纽约时报》文章《中国有大麻烦了吗？》后，我给该文作者、2008年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）写了一封电子邮件，指出他文章中的错误。当然，这封邮件的命运，就跟以前我看到有关计生和中国人口的不实报道后，而给编辑记者作者写的那些邮件一样，如石沉大海，毫无回音。给学术权威和媒体记者写信，就像朝黑洞射进去一束光，或者用肉包子打狗，结果往往是有去无回。为了不让自己绞尽脑汁写邮件的辛苦白白浪费，我决定将这封信略加改动后发到马特市。又因为自己英文很差，常常词不达意，犯一些非常低级的语法和拼写错误，所以附上该信的中文版，请各位朋友多多指教。】

Dear Mr. Krugman,

尊敬的克雷格蒙先生：

I'm sorry to bother you with my little complaint. I'm a reader of NYT from China. Yesterday, I read your article on the web of NYT titled "Is China in Big Trouble?", and I think what you said in that article is not true.

很抱歉如此冒昧地打扰您，向您表达一点小小的不满。我是《纽约时报》（中文网）的一名中国读者，读过阁下发表在该网上的文章《中国有大麻烦了吗？》后，我认为您在文中的说法并非事实。

When you said "Chinese savings have stayed stubbornly high", it seems that your information is outdated. Because what China faces now is just the contrary, from families and companies to local governments, we have " stubbornly high" debts. 

当您提到“中国的储蓄率一直居高不下”时，您似乎采用了一些已经过时的信息。因为中国现在面临的问题恰恰相反：从家庭、企业到地方政府，现在都处于“负债率居高不下”的困境之中。

Many media have reported and discussed this problem, such as "COVID-19 and China’s Household Debt Dilemma". It said, "In only five years, household debt has surged to 128% of household income, and 56% of Chinese GDP". 

很多媒体都报道和讨论过这个问题，例如《新冠瘟疫与中国的家庭债务困局》。文中提到，“在短短5年之内，（中国人的）家庭债务就膨胀到家庭收入的128%，占中国GDP的56%。”（注：我原本打算在这里列举更多报道为例，但因为自己英文比较差，所以只举了一个例子，点到为止。况且人家克雷格蒙又不是傻子，而是诺贝尔经济学奖得主，如果需要了解这方面的信息，他完全能够到网上搜到大把大把的相关报道和数据。）

And it is that high debt, but not the "demographic transition", or, the one-child policy you indirectly blamed on, makes people dare not to consume.

正是由于家庭负债累累，而非“人口结构转变”或者那个被您当作间接替罪羊的独生子女政策，才导致人们不敢消费。

Why? because the one-child policy was particularly strict in cities and towns, especially for those parents who worked in government or government-owned-or-controlled organizations. These people usually made much more money than those living in the countryside. Since they had only one child, they inclined to spend more money on their only offspring, and support them to get better education.

为什么这么说呢？因为独生子女政策在中国的城镇地区特别严格，对那些在体制内工作的夫妻尤为如此（所以这种家庭在独生子女家庭中所占比例很高）。这些人往往比生活在农村的农民收入更高。既然只有一个孩子，他们也就更舍得在自己唯一的孩子身上花钱，支持他们接受更好的教育。

And better education means these "one-child" could find better jobs and therefore make and spend more money. In other words, such families have promoted consuming, but not the contrary as you said.

而更好的教育意味着这些独生子女能够找到更好的工作，赚更多的钱，有更多的钱用于消费。换言之，这样的独生子女家庭促进了消费，而不是像您说的那样遏制了消费。

Since parents of such families usually have retirement pensions from the government, they don't need to "save a lot to prepare for retirement" at all. 

又由于这种在体制内工作的夫妻往往能够获得政府发放的养老金，他们根本不需要“不停存钱以为退休做准备”。

It is people with sons who have to save a lot, not to prepare for retirement, but to buy apartments for their sons. Without an apartment in cities or towns, most probably those young men would have no chance to get married.  

真正需要不停存钱的往往是拥有多个儿子的家庭，倒不是父母们为退休做准备，而是为了给儿子们在城里买房子。如果没在城里买房，这些年轻男子很可能根本没机会结婚。

In the last decade, I discovered a strange phenomenon among journalists and researchers worldwide. It seems that they are inclined to blame almost every problem in China on the Family Plan, especially the "One-Child" Policy. Some of them even try to demonize those children from "one-child" families. They say these children are spoiled by their parents and grand-parents. Therefore, when 2 university students killed their classmate(s) or room-mate(s) several years ago, they blamed such crimes on the "bad family education of the one-child families", though both murderers actually have sibling(s). 

在过去的十年里，我发现世界各地的媒体人和研究者中有一种奇怪的现象。他们喜欢把中国面临的几乎所有问题都归罪于计生政策，尤其是独生子女政策。有些人甚至企图妖魔化独生子女，说这些孩子被父母祖父母宠坏了。因此，几年前，当两个大学生杀死自己的同学或室友后，尽管两个凶手都出身于多子女家庭，那些人却把这样的犯罪栽赃给“独生子女家庭教育差”。（注：此指马加爵和林森浩杀人案，其实林森浩是研究生，准确地说不能算university student，但我英文不是很好，难以准确地表达两人之间的差异，就笼统地称他们为大学生了。）

Most of such opinions are nothing but lies or nonsense. No serious study could prove children from "one-child families" have a higher crime rate than those from families with more than one child. 

诸如此类的观点，绝大多数都是谎言或胡扯淡。从没有任何严肃的研究证明独生子女比多子女家庭出身的子女犯罪率更高。

It is true the Family Plan and "One-Child" Policy of China hurted or even killed women and fetuses. But it is also true that these policies have helped many women and children, especially women and girls from the countryside, to become more independent economically and to get better education. With fewer children to get born and take care of, mothers could get jobs and own salaries outside. With no sibling to compete for the limited family resources, girls could grab the chance to own a degree in universities.

不错，计划生育和独生子女政策确实伤害甚至杀死了一些女性和胎儿。但这些政策也帮助过很多女性和儿童，尤其是帮助那些来自农村的女性在经济上更加独立，获得更好的教育。因为生养的孩子更少，母亲们就能够外出工作挣钱；因为没有兄弟姐妹跟自己竞争有限的家庭资源，独生女便有机会上大学拿学位。

In my junior high school, only 2 girls out of the 40 or so students in our class were lucky enough to get access to higher education, a friend of mine and me. Both of us are the only-child of our parents. That's no coincidence. Even in the countryside where people usually have much strong prejudices against women and girls, our parents were willing to support us to get better education. And they could afford it too, although both our families were not rich at all.

在我初中那个班级的大约40名学生中，只有两个幸运的女孩有机会接受高等教育——我和我的一个朋友，我们俩都是家里的独生女。这并非偶然。即便是在男尊女卑思想泛滥成灾的农村，我们的父母也愿意支持我们接受更好的教育。而且他们也有能力资助我们，即便我们两家在当地并不算多么富裕。

That's why I insist on revealing the lies from people who unfairly blame the Family Plan and "One-Child" Policy of China, although in other areas, I am an insistent criticizer of the CCP government.

那就是我持之以恒地揭露反节育派把独生子女政策当作万能替罪羊的原因，而在其他方面，我其实也一直在持之以恒地批评共匪政府。

In my opinion, the real "big trouble" we Chinese people face now is the contradiction between survival and development. In order to survive in this overpopulated and over-polluted country, we must stop polluting our air, water and land. But in order to get economic development, it's almost impossible not to keep polluting our air, water and land as we have done in the past several decades.

在我看来，中国人面临的真正的“大麻烦”，是生存与发展之间的矛盾。为了在这个人满为患、海陆空全方位污染的国家生存下去，我们就必须停止污染空气、水和土壤。但为了经济发展，我们要想放弃过去那样污染环境的做法，就是几乎不可能的事情。

But you economists don't care what people really face in their lives, you only care about money.

当然你们经济学家并不关心人们在生活中到底面临着什么麻烦，你们只关心金钱。

I have started to reveal the lies of what I call "anti-Family-Plan liars" years ago. Most of my articles are written in Chinese, here are 4 in English:

‘You Are a Rarity Among All Chinese Women,’ People Always Said

An Evil Secret behind the Stolen or Faked Blank Birth Certificates

Chinese pregnant women are dying because of an outdated WHO suggestion

How could Fuxian Yi fake data and spread his lies so easily worldwide?

我从多年之前就开始写文章揭露反节育派的谎言了，大部分文章都是用中文写的，只有4篇用英文写成，您要愿意的话，可以瞄上那么几眼（文章链接下略）。

What a pity a Nobel laureate like you also joined their choral of lies.

像您这样的诺贝尔奖获得者，居然也加入了反节育派的造谎运动，这实在是非常遗憾。

Best regards,

A Chinese woman

祝您天天发大财！

一个中国女人