【點評】China’s Ukraine Conundrum

【點評】China’s Ukraine Conundrum _ ibmzyngard
China’s Ukraine Conundrum
Why the War Necessitates a Balancing Act By Yan Xuetong
May 2, 2022
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-05-02/chinas-ukraine-conundrum

【余案：猶抱琵琶半遮面！作爲公開發表的文字，此文明顯不如早前那個翟東升的内部講話那麽赤裸裸。儘管開宗明義還是欲蓋彌彰地承認「Beijing sees little to gain from joining the international chorus condemning Moscow.」言下之意好像是：無利不起早嘛。你要我加入這個反俄大合唱，總得給我一點兒甜頭吧？扭扭捏捏了半天，後面就直接要價「As long as the United States does not offer military support for a Taiwanese declaration of de jure independence, China is unlikely to deviate from this path of peaceful development.」好話説盡，壞事做絕！「和平進程」啊！多麽動聽多麽感人的言辭。那麽還講不講「東升西降」了呢？還會不會繼續炫耀「那裏有我們的人」了呢？公開場合當然不會。中國人的那點兒鬼點子糊弄一下洋鬼子簡直是駕輕就熟順手就拈來的看家活計。衹不過，確實是有一些心急火燎的反賊陣營一個勁兒鼓吹美國白左佔據的白宮今非昔比啦，說，牠們搜羅的那些高參顧問不再是基辛格那種老江湖油子而是那啥啥的。牠們居然沒看見那個還放在場面上的東歐餘孽布林肯，好像一門心思要報仇雪恨，必欲將基督教保守主義的最後堡壘俄羅斯置之死地而後快。這輪操作到底目的何在？有陰謀論認定，這個等敗的寶貝兒子有把柄捏在對家手上。就連牠們自己的喉舌都覺得不宜繼續遮掩。於是爲了避免地雷即刻引爆，躲得一時是一時。最好鬧出一場三戰核戰，到時候誰還顧得上那點兒醜聞破事？難怪任由人家國土之上戰火紛飛，皇帝急太監不急啊。豈止不急，直接就是火上澆油唯恐戰事後繼無力不僅送槍送炮還急著送錢。恨不能立即將美國掏空，以此來實現白左朝思夜想徹底毀滅美國的宏偉計劃（老川費盡心機發動的關稅貿易戰説話之間就讓等敗以阿富汗方式結束拉倒了，理由居然是防止高通脹。這個世界也是瘋啦。這種理由也能堂而皇之拿上臺面也沒人問一聲這通脹到底哪來的？）。於是乎是圍魏救趙意圖跟東方赤納粹結成牢不可破的英特納雄耐爾國際共運的堅强統一戰綫以便「建成」並「維護」這個「新」世界秩序呢，還是跟此文所謂的繼續討價還價、繼續互相唬弄得過且過呢？總是有人非常樂觀主義，說老美怎麽折騰都沒關係。人家基礎扎實，糾錯能力忒強之類。衹不過再好的車子不細心保養，老是在路上跑，那路又今非昔比，老是坑坑窪窪的。真有信心永遠不會翻車？看看這裏這篇文章的表述，就能夠清晰無誤地看到，國際政治的現實就是這樣的。什麽理想主義的動聽言辭都是用來欺騙愚民傻瓜蛋的。真正的理據衹有一個「利」字。不知舉世跟隨西方下流媒體叫囂起舞的芸芸衆生此刻會不會有點兒醒悟？什麽聯合國什麽邊境條約什麽道義責任，老天，都是盤算計算運算，都是計謀伎倆操作。很佩服臺港一衆義憤填膺的烏（克蘭）托邦分子，你真要有頭腦得想想前因後果呀。價值論聽來似乎離地。但是擺在這個論題當中，一旦捨棄，還會剩下什麽？】

Russia’s war in Ukraine has produced a strategic predicament for China. On the one hand, the conflict has disrupted billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese trade, heightened tensions in East Asia, and deepened political polarization within China by dividing people into pro- and anti-Russia camps. On the other, China blames the United States for provoking Russia with its support for NATO expansion and worries that Washington will seek to prolong the conflict in Ukraine in order to bog down Russia. Beijing sees little to gain from joining the international chorus condemning Moscow.

【余案：將墻内的政治生態描述得就跟墻外世界一樣，倒是非常罕見。嚴苛的網禁政策之下，無論「親俄」還是「反俄」能反映網民的主觀意志嗎？就跟討論侵臺時，動輒說人口百分之多少多少都堅決支持一樣，信源絕對自如操縱的墻内生態，會出現跟操縱者不一樣的異見，那真是樁古怪到跟天方夜譚差不多的歷史奇跡。倒不是說這裏那裏不會冒出一點異見。林子大了啥鳥都會有。網開一面就有翻墻的可能，於是前門逃出虎口，後門又進狼窩，這狼窩就是滿世界的西方下流媒體一面倒的反俄喧囂。如果你生活在墻内，狗膽包天也説幾句支持烏克蘭蘭之類的「反俄」異見，你以爲很勇敢很勇於跟墻内輿論針鋒相對。殊不料正中當道者的下懷，牠們正打算讓西方看看手上討價還價的籌碼呢。不是說尊重「民意」嗎？瞧瞧，俺這耷兒不缺這玩意兒。有那麽多喝過洋墨水的海龜「智囊」環繞，你那套西洋玩意兒，早就讓我玩得稀爛啦。你以爲還是吳下阿蒙呢！】

Regardless of what China says or does in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to wage war in Ukraine, Washington is unlikely to soften its strategy of containment toward Beijing. And as China’s largest and most militarily capable neighbor, Russia is not a power that Beijing wishes to antagonize. Chinese policymakers have therefore sought to avoid unnecessarily provoking either rival power—abstaining from votes to condemn Russia in the UN General Assembly and carefully selecting its official statements about the war.

【余案：裝出一副受氣小媳婦的模樣抱怨說哪邊都得罪不起，你就放我一條生路吧？儘管這個閻某人不算是外交部戰狼之一可如今墻内還可以克儘本分認真讀書做學問的恐怕也是很難得很難想象的了。如果真是站在民間立場看待强權之間的爭霸，除非不敢說，要真說呢，也衹能說一句：沒一個好貨！】

This balancing strategy is not without costs. Refusing to condemn Russia has strained China’s relations with some of its neighbors and distanced Beijing from many developing nations that have lined up against Russia’s war in Ukraine. It has also incurred economic costs stemming from Russia’s war that could continue long into the future. Nonetheless, in order to minimize its strategic losses, China will likely hew to this middle path until the war in Ukraine is over. One thing that might shift Beijing’s calculus and push it to side with Russia is if the United States provides military support for a Taiwanese declaration of de jure independence. Barring that, Beijing will likely continue its balancing act, since Washington’s policy of containment toward China makes it very difficult for Beijing to side with the United States on the war in Ukraine.

【余案：作爲參照系倒是不妨看看印度的取態。人家可沒左右爲難之相。恰恰相反，而是左右逢源游刃有餘呢。何以如此？無他，心底無私天地寬哈哈。這句套話用在這裏怎一個好玩了得。曾經看到一個操蛋的分析，說，別看美國鬼子糾集一百幾十個僕從國，可除了那幾個歐洲的當事者，找幾個能放上臺面的都很難。反觀礙於情面或私底下故意唱對臺戲的，加在一塊兒，可是佔據地球一大半地面了。看到這個局面居然還一臉小媳婦相，您倒是説説是不是別有内情呢？】

CAUGHT IN A BIND

Since the beginning of the conflict, Western powers have accused China of passively or even actively supporting Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. In March, for instance, The New York Times reported unverified claims that Russia shared its war plans with China ahead of the conflict. But as Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the United States, pointed out in a March 15 op-ed in The Washington Post, China had much to lose from Russia’s actions: “There were more than 6,000 Chinese citizens in Ukraine. China is the biggest trading partner of both Russia and Ukraine, and the largest importer of crude oil and natural gas in the world. Conflict between Russia and Ukraine does no good for China. Had China known about the imminent crisis, we would have tried our best to prevent it.”

【余案：這裏說的恐怕很有幾分實情。一直嘲笑臺港那些烏克蘭蘭托邦分子，總覺得那些家夥腦筍還沒長齊，居然不知道那烏克蘭蘭是赤納粹軍備的重要夥伴。本來想說「最」的，想想也沒啥數據支持，衹能姑妄言之。臺灣有個網媒派出「戰地」記者到波蘭邊境，想到基輔凑熱鬧卻讓人給拒絕入境。說你那護照俺不承認之類。那種一廂情願的熱情到底從何而來也是很難想象的。中國不是有個「一帶一路」的宏偉計劃嗎？整個中亞直到烏克蘭蘭都是骨幹所在。俄羅斯看在眼裏就跟屋樑般刺目。用華文老話來説，不就是所謂臥榻之側，豈容他人酣睡嗎？這裏一臉委屈說如果「知情」的話就一定「勸阻」。問題反而是，人家聽不聽「勸」你心裏有底嗎？中俄結盟一直是竊據白宮的等敗之流白左勢力蓄意栽贓的產物或者頂多是其結果而已。那時節那個死老頭特沒譜還沒登基呢，就讓個通俄門弄得焦頭爛額一直到今天也沒見一根蝦毛露出真容。曾經有民科戰略家百思不得其解說，美國沒理由招惹普京呀。説好的印太戰略呢？唉，這年頭，真是少點陰謀論簡直都不能説話了。又如之奈何？曹長青撰文指出照這樣下去，所謂「印太戰略」沒準會黃。明白嗎？真要黃了，纔能實現等敗所代表的白左勢力的英特納雄耐爾宏偉大計呀。人家早就盼著這一天了！】

In reality, Qin understated the war’s negative impact on China. The conflict has roiled commodities markets and disrupted supply chains, resulting in billions of dollars of losses for Chinese firms. The Chinese nickel titan Tsingshan Holding Group, for instance, lost $8 billion on ill-timed trades after the war dramatically caused the price of nickel to spike. War-related disruptions have also resulted in large-scale cancellations of Chinese export orders and weakened Chinese industrial productivity. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index—which tracks economic activity in the manufacturing sector—declined by 0.7 percent in March, a much worse performance than market analysts had forecast and the first monthly contraction since August 2021.

【余案：坊間另有一種陰謀論，認定習特拉天縱英才深謀遠慮早就看透了世界大局走勢因而未雨綢繆掌握主動趁著歐美措手不及先行脫鈎，這樣一來，進可攻退可守，永遠立於不敗之地。中國人民吃苦耐勞，靠吃草就可能天長地久。這不，借疫情來演習一次，果然得心應手召之即來如臂使指，舉目當今世界，誰有這樣的底氣？難怪頭上光環脚底祥雲確實足以顧盼自雄的啊。衹不過，還是無法解釋竊據白宮的白左勢力寧可跟俄羅斯鷸蚌相爭藉此來配合習特拉演出這場世紀大戲到底目的何在？誠心讓牠來當「漁翁」？正常人的邏輯永遠看不透這種遊戲規則的呢。倒是另有一種完全相反的陰謀論，說，等敗跟普京在明修棧道暗度陳倉，互相攻防一番來迷惑赤納粹，然後趁其不備突然揮軍東進徹底征服中國。這類陰謀論多半來自五毛或者小粉紅陣營，其智商也就這麽高低上下，因此得啖笑足矣。檢視林林總總的陰謀論，若是並不太過沉迷於奇思幻想而是根據各方的價值觀來定位的話，則等敗為代表的白左陣營要徹底掃除普京俄羅斯的保守據點以便跟赤納粹共建「新」世界秩序即英特納雄耐爾，倒是更符合普通人認知邏輯的。】

The war in Ukraine has deepened political polarization within China.

The war has also heightened tensions between China and some of its neighbors. As the rivalry between Washington and Beijing has intensified, many East Asian nations have adopted hedging strategies to balance ties to both powers. But the conflict in Ukraine has driven some of these countries to lean more heavily toward the United States. In addition, the conflict has given Washington an excuse to approve another $95 million in military aid to Taiwan—the third U.S. arms package that Taipei has received since U.S. President Joe Biden took office. And it is not just China’s relations with its neighbors that have suffered: in March, two-thirds of UN member states voted to condemn Russia in a pair of resolutions at the UN General Assembly while only five voted not to and 35 abstained. China’s presence in the latter group will be remembered by many small and midsized countries, especially in the developing world.

【余案：念茲在茲的根本利益還是臺灣啊。習特拉心目中意圖超越的目標當然就是毛賊東，牠死前自以爲的兩大功績就是打蔣介石跟發動文革。打蔣而未致死。應該就是其心有不甘之處。習豬頭若能完成這個宏偉目標，似乎就可以自命為中國殖民歷史上里程碑式的突破而名垂青史啦。牠這樣想，倒也情有可原。可此文作者即使御用也好歹讀過點書吧？爲什麽跟歷史上的閹奴一個沒屌樣終日為主子操心若此呢。讀書人不是應該有更遠大的理想嗎？嘆嘆！】

To make matters worse, the war has further strained relations between China and the United States and its allies. Australia, Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom have all said they will join the United States in imposing secondary sanctions on Chinese companies that continue to do business as usual with Russia.
Finally, the war in Ukraine has deepened political polarization within China itself. On WeChat and other social media platforms, Chinese citizens have coalesced into opposing camps, one for Russia and the other against. Soon after the conflict began, some anti-Russia Chinese netizens began rehashing the unfairness of the 1858 Treaty of Aigun, which ceded roughly 230,000 square miles of Chinese territory to Russia. The political sensitivity of this historical event has in the past made Beijing wary of supporting any Russian efforts at territorial expansion. In this case, however, Beijing must give sincere consideration to the anti-Russian sentiment among some Chinese citizens.

【余案：看來此文作者雖然並未身列戰狼外交部，行文卻居心險惡，暗藏玄機。表面上看來衹是交代歷史恩怨，實際上卻為更加可能的背叛預留伏筆。本來就同床異夢各懷鬼胎的俄中，所謂同盟本來就子虛烏有。如今更通過貌似局外人的口中吐露遊戲的別一玩法。等到事情坐實，牠就振振有詞說，這可不能怪我。新仇舊恨本來就未曾忘記。背後捅你一刀子又有什麽好奇怪的？美國佬好像剛剛從夢中驚醒似的，裝模做樣說「中国从对俄制裁中渔翁得利，这对欧盟意味着什么？（紐時評論）」意味著這場戰爭從來就不是歐洲希望見到的。從地緣政治本身的邏輯來看，默克爾的親俄思路未必不是歐洲的根本利益所在。反而是以全球一體化為價值的白左世界政府並不樂見這樣的發展。烏克蘭蘭早在白左勢力的覬覦之中，老川還在臺上時曾經躍躍欲試企圖調查那裏鬼影幢幢的政治勾當。難怪等敗一上臺就迫不及待讓那個戲子總統當上了過河卒子。除此之外，問題卻還在於俄羅斯普京何以心甘情願墮入這個任誰都可以看到的陷阱之中。然後他又有怎樣的脫身之計。前幾天，教宗方濟各驚世駭俗説出這樣一番話：Pope Francis appeared to partly blame the West for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in an interview published this week, suggesting that the “barking of NATO at Russia’s door” may have forced Putin’s hand.
“An anger that I don’t know if you can say was provoked, but maybe facilitated,” the Pope told the Italian Corriere della Sera newspaper.
Francis also condemned the weapons industry and said the “arms trade is a scandal” that “few oppose.”
“I can’t answer, I’m too far away, to the question of whether it is right to supply the Ukrainians,” Francis said. “There are international interests in every bit. One cannot think that a free state can wage war on another free state. In Ukraine it was the others who created the conflict.”現任教宗素以左膠取態為世人所詬病。但這番話卻發人深省。跟我日前一文所言相關，就是提到當年的古巴導彈危機。你如果不主張雙標的話，就不能不正視此中邏輯。等敗怕牠寶貝兒子東窗事發讓世人知道更多真相，因此不惜挑起世界大戰哪怕玉石俱焚也要來掩蓋或者至少加以拖延。當然這又是一個陰謀論啦。這年頭還有什麽不算是陰謀論的呢？除了真正的陰謀之外？】

“FUEL TO THE FLAMES”

Despite the war’s negative impacts on China, however, Beijing is not prepared to accept Washington’s approach toward the conflict. Since the beginning of the conflict, the Chinese government has argued that the United States provoked Russia by pushing for NATO’s eastward expansion. It now sees Washington as deliberately escalating the war in order to perpetuate it, thereby weakening both Russia and China. In a virtual call on March 5, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that China opposes any moves that “add fuel to the flames” in Ukraine. Chinese leaders and journalists have since repeated the phrase, underscoring Beijing’s distrust of Washington’s intentions. On March 30, for instance, the state-run People’s Daily published an editorial arguing that by “adding fuel to the flames” the United States “is creating larger obstacles to a political solution of this crisis.”

【余案：永遠正確永遠正義永遠站在道德制高點永遠振振有詞，哦，還有什麽？除了這些，按照陰謀論的説法，中國漁翁的角色算是損失呢還是算深謀遠慮的收益？世事錯綜複雜之處在在顯示出神魔大戰的弔詭面貌。難怪環顧左右滿紙荒唐言一把傷心淚。作者未必癡。倒是吃瓜群衆難得其中味而已。】

Having failed to deter Russia from waging war in Ukraine with threats of severe economic sanctions, the United States has shifted its goal from ending the conflict to prolonging it. In a speech in Poland on March 26, Biden said, “This battle will not be won in days or months either. We need to steel ourselves for the long fight ahead.” To Beijing, this read as an admission that the White House no longer aims to end the war but rather to prolong it in order to weaken and defeat Russia. When the following week Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to make progress toward a tentative peace plan, top U.S. officials expressed skepticism about Russia’s desire to curtail its military assault on the cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv. Of the supposed progress, Biden said, “I don’t read anything into it until I see what [Russia’s] actions are.” The next day, he told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the United States planned to provide Ukraine with an additional $500 million in direct budgetary aid. As Beijing sees it, Washington is scaling up military aid to Ukraine in order to deny Russia a diplomatic off ramp for troop withdrawal. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s comment last week that “we want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine” has only deepened China’s conviction that the United States’ priority is to weaken Russia, not to seek a swift end to the war.

【余案：這裏陳述的似乎都是事實。美國毫不遮掩的意圖背後，到底想表達怎樣的戰略構想在此文作者看來也是很不可思議的。作爲外部干涉力量的中美甚至加上北約諸國，是否都明白俄羅斯普京的戰略嗎？表面上看來早已身陷險境的俄羅斯反而並不急於結束戰爭，難道真是有恃無恐嗎？陰謀論解釋為普京早已病入膏肓時日無多因此破罐子破摔儘此一煲死了拉倒。你以爲世事真是那麽兒戲的話，什麽國際局勢説了也是多餘。可是加入將普京的孤軍奮戰看作大衛面對歌利亞的拼死意志，則此戰是否以及如何結束，恐非人力可爲的。】

Beijing now sees Washington as deliberately escalating the war in order to perpetuate it.

Nor does China believe that seeking common ground with Washington on the war in Ukraine will meaningfully improve broader Sino-U.S. relations. Even if Beijing were to join in the international condemnation of Russia, the United States would not soften its containment policy against China. Since the start of the war, some East Asian countries have publicly questioned whether Washington will sustain its focus on the Indo-Pacific while Europe is in crisis. In response, the Biden administration has been quick to reassure them. On March 28, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks told reporters: “Even as we confront Russia’s malignant activities, the defense strategy describes how the department will act urgently to sustain and strengthen deterrence with the PRC as our most consequential strategic competitor and pacing challenge.” The next day, Biden told Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong that even though the United States is focused on Ukraine, it is “strongly supportive of moving rapidly to implement the Indo-Pacific strategy.”

【余案：英明神武的不僅是豬頭習特拉，還包括竊據白宮的等敗呢，此文作者到底想傳達一個怎樣的信息？這幾天風頭火勢傳謠豬頭要按照華爾街意願鞠躬下臺捲鋪蓋走人換個這些年來一塊兒悶聲大發財的主來讓美國佬高興。這些謠言顯然都不是作者的閲讀範圍之内的事。雖説世事如棋局局新，千變萬化説到底也衹有一個利字當頭而已。美國政壇到底是在虛張聲勢呢還是按部就班底氣十足，建設「新」的世界秩序真是不需要幫手可以視世人如無物橫衝直撞予取予求？我是不相信的。】

Chinese leaders see no reason to believe that Washington would somehow shift these priorities even if Beijing distanced itself from Moscow. In their eyes, condemning Russia publicly and siding with those enforcing sanctions against it would only open the door for the United States to impose secondary sanctions on China itself. The United States has already threatened to punish Chinese companies that do business with Russia. On February 3, U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters: “We have an array of tools that we can deploy if we see foreign companies, including those in China, doing their best to backfill U.S. export control actions, to evade them, to get around them.”

【余案：演戲雙方要互相配合。此處同樣暗藏一個討價還價的空間。你要我參加大合唱就必須付出代價，要如何如何纔能讓我跟你配合無間？所以明天突然發現戰綫出現根本改變也無須有驚訝的表情。早就告訴過你啦。這叫一箭雙雕一舉兩得！】

After Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine, the United States dialed up the diplomatic pressure on China. In mid-March, before U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Yang Jiechi, the director of China’s Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, Sullivan told the media: “We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them.”

THE MIDDLE PATH

This is not the first time Beijing has found itself caught between major rival powers. Between 1958 and 1971, the People’s Republic of China faced the most hostile international environment in its brief history. During this period, it had to confront strategic threats from the United States and the Soviet Union simultaneously. In response, the Chinese government devoted all its economic resources to preparing for a full-scale war against one of the two powers. To better shield its industrial base from attack, it moved many factories from more developed areas in eastern China to underdeveloped and mountainous western areas, hiding them in artificial caves. This large-scale industrial reorganization plunged China into a significant economic hardship, causing severe commodity shortages and widespread poverty.

【余案：極爲無恥的辯解！當時寧可同時跟美蘇爲敵的根本原因並非人家針對你，而是你倒行逆施，與世界和平爲敵。弄到連蘇聯當時的赫魯曉夫都認爲你太過分，居然試圖跟美蘇同時打核戰爭。而將爲了避免跟世界鬧翻同歸於盡的蘇聯稱作修正主義。這種由毛賊東瘋狂性格引發的政治經濟危機，居然成爲今天的藉口。很佩服這類中國學者的腦回路。上主造人時真的率性爲之以至於遺下如許多廢物！難道這纔是生物多樣性的價值所在嗎？實在很難理解。】

The memory of this awful history has informed China’s response to the war in Ukraine and hardened its commitment to avoid getting sandwiched between Washington and Moscow once again. Official Chinese statements have thus been finely calibrated to avoid provoking Russia. In an interview in March, for instance, Qin made clear that Beijing seeks a cooperative relationship with Moscow but does not support its war in Ukraine. “There is no forbidden zone for cooperation between China and Russia, but there is also a bottom line, which is the tenets and principles established in the UN Charter,” he said. In a press briefing on April 1, Wang Lutong, director-general of European affairs at China’s Foreign Ministry, sought to walk a similarly fine line: “We are not doing anything deliberately to circumvent the sanctions against Russia imposed by the US and the Europeans,” he said, adding that “China is not a related party to the crisis in Ukraine.”

【余案：與其說自己首鼠兩端倒不如說將自己視作「漁夫」然後等待「鷸蚌相爭」之後坐享英特納雄耐爾旗幟在全世界高高飄揚的勝利。如此如意算盤的底氣或許恰恰表現在翟東升有意無意透露出來的「那裏有我們的人」一言之中。世人有意無意將這個「人」看成華爾街某個見錢眼看的商人。卻沒料到如今日所見居然是竊據白宮大位的等敗為代表的整個世界白左勢力也就難怪陷入一子錯滿盤皆落索的困境之中，一時難以看到隧道盡頭，不知道幾時纔能看到曙光。】

In choosing a middle path on Ukraine, China has refrained from providing military aid to Moscow but maintained normal business relations with Russia, a decision that other countries have also made. For example, India—a strategic partner of the United States—has adopted a similar stance, drawing a clear distinction between military and economic affairs. Even some NATO countries have continued to buy Russian gas to heat homes through the winter. If the war in Ukraine drags on, more countries may start mimicking China’s balancing policy to minimize their own economic losses caused by the war.

【余案：將自己跟印度在俄烏戰爭中的立場態度相提并論即使不說是包藏禍心也衹能說是為自己臉上貼金。事實上正如上文所言，印度在這方面遠遠游刃有餘，早已是世界未來可能出現的殘局中一個不可替代的棋手，而非僅僅是今日棋盤上的小小棋子而已。有政治幻想小説描寫這場世界大戰（已經或者將要開始），現存幾個强權都難免淪落。於是衹剩下印度有能力出來收拾。這個構想聽來無稽卻並非毫無根據。至少印度是年輕的人口大國。用馬斯克最擔心的話來説，日本如果不想出解決辦法，幾代人之後，日本就會消失。他的這個説法還沒將戰爭算在裏面。否則這個過程會加速。用不了幾代人時間，整個國際版圖就會有本質上的改變。】

As the world’s second-largest economic power, China intends to play an important role in shaping global economic norms. But it has no ambition to play a leading role in global security affairs, especially in matters of war, because of the huge military disparity between it and the United States. Shaping a peaceful environment favorable to China’s economic development remains an important diplomatic goal. As long as the United States does not offer military support for a Taiwanese declaration of de jure independence, China is unlikely to deviate from this path of peaceful development.