Is a world war near?

Is the Russia-Ukraine war about to start? Last week, the world was concerned about one thing, is Russia going to invade Ukraine? The Americans have analyzed the possibility that after the Winter Olympics, China may take advantage of the war in Russia and Ukraine and directly send troops to Taiwan. Is the third world war about to begin?

Last week was really a bunch of foreign media reports! In fact, there are not too many reports in Hong Kong. Maybe because the epidemic in Hong Kong has become tense, or because there are really few media in Hong Kong, the interest is suddenly narrowed, but in fact, there are too many words from the United Kingdom and the United States about the situation in Russia and Ukraine.

As a result, after a weekend, the world still maintains the same old appearance of peace. Instead, Hong Kong has been turned upside down by the occupied Kwai Chung Village, but Hong Kong will always return to normal. However, this peaceful world is really peaceful, or, very old-fashioned. In a word, just the tranquility before the storm?

Since the Hong Kong media has not introduced much, let's take a look at what happened.

Prologue: Russia and Belarus joint military exercises

We have been following the tensions in the Udong region since about April last year.

At that time, Russia moved a group of troops to eastern Ukraine, which terrified Ukraine and European countries, and everyone was waiting for it.

As a result, Putin announced the withdrawal of troops not long after, so that a pair of ships passed through the water without a trace, and he withdrew as soon as he said it.

As a result, in the past few months, Russia has begun to move around again.

But this time Putin has a new trick.

He didn't want to use his territory to create tension, it wasn't fun.

He decided to use Belarus as a new playground for a new wave of threats.

Starting on January 18, Russia and Belarus launched a 32-day joint military exercise.

The first stage focuses on dispatching troops,

First send the Russian army into Belarus, and then conduct some joint air force shooting exercises.

The second phase is from February 10th to 20th,

At this stage, there is also an exercise called "Alliance Heart-2022".

The main focus is on border defense tactical drills.

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"Since the main axis is the border, is it reasonable to send troops to the border between Belarus and Ukraine?"

That's right, so Russia's 120,000 troops moved mightily to the border of Belarus, about 40 kilometers away from Ukrainian territory. If Russia decides to invade Ukraine, it will take less than a day to arrive.

This has greatly stimulated the United States and Europe, so last weekend major foreign media were asking: "When will Russia go to war?"

The Hong Kong media just missed out on a whole bunch of tense discussions.

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Why this military exercise is so remarkable

There are several aspects to observe.

First, Belarus plays a very important role.

Before 2020, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was still swinging between Europe and Russia.

It was not until he was accused of unfair elections, the European Union and the United States decided to impose economic sanctions on Belarus, and recently Russia sent troops to help Belarus suppress domestic demonstrations, that Lukashenko walked towards Putin without looking back.

We can almost think of Belarus as an extension of Russia's western territory, which greatly affects the layout of the Ukrainian army.

In the past, Ukraine only had to arrange its troops in the heart of the conflict in the past - the Eastern Ukrainian region.

Just hold on to Lugansk and Donnetsk and keep an eye out for Crimea, which was lost to the south a few years ago.

But it's alright now,

Ukraine is also distracted by Belarus to the north, which is a threat that Ukraine has never seen before.

Second, the drills are too realistic.

Was the joint military exercise in the past just a group of troops coming and going?

Everyone made two moves. After showing off their muscles, they went back to their respective countries, and everything returned to the way they were before the military exercise.

But clearly not this time.

According to the side understanding of some NATO intelligence units, in addition to sending 12 Su-35 aircraft, 2 battalions of S-400 air defense systems, and 1 battalion of "Pantsir-S" anti-aircraft artillery systems to Belarus, Putin also secretly dispatched A large number of combat corps originally on the borders of Siberia and Central Asia were prepared in the Udong area.

And it is said that even the field hospitals on the border have been built! It also specially mobilized the blood bank, making it seem like it will be used tomorrow.

What's worse, didn't we start by saying that since last year, Russia has been sending troops to Wudong to make a false move?

The result is not false!

NATO has only discovered now that Russia has left a lot of arms and large-scale military equipment on the Ukraine-Russia border every time.

Now Wudong is already a formation ready to fight at any time.

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Third, the season is just right.

What? Isn't it just too cold to host the Winter Olympics right now?

According to the description of Corner International, January to February each year is a relatively suitable fighting season for large-scale battles.

Because at this time, the muddy roads in eastern Ukraine will freeze directly and become an ice skating rink that can hold the Winter Olympics smoothly, and armored vehicles can slip all the way to the forefront of the war.

If it's too early or too late, the road will turn into mud again, and then it's time to go from armored warfare to mud wrestling.

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We just talked about the main points of the last week. After talking so much, do you already feel that the time for war is not far away?

Yes, America feels it too.

So U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken rode to Ukraine on January 19,

The first time to appease Ukraine's heart.

In addition, on January 21, Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva, Switzerland.

The two sides held talks for up to 90 minutes to see if they could "negotiate" this imminent war first.

What was the result?

Hmm, it doesn't seem to be of much use.

Although both sides said after the meeting that they were "frank and truthful and constructive".

But after the talks, Russia still did not withdraw its troops, and Ukraine remained on alert.

Russia said that it was easy for them to withdraw their troops. Do you remember those two letters from last month?

One for the United States, called the "U.S.-Russian Security Treaty";

One for NATO is called the Agreement on Security Measures between Russia and NATO Member States.

The main idea is that the United States promises not to help the former Soviet Union countries against Russia, and that NATO cannot expand eastward again.

Russia said, we don't want other commitments, we just need the United States to reply to these two letters.

Of course the United States refused. It would be strange if the conditions given in the letter were so poor that they would agree.

As a result, the two sides reached a stalemate, and the talks barely intersected.

Seeing that the tense situation seems to be impossible to solve with diplomacy,

So the news just now is,

The United States shipped a second shipment of weapons to Ukraine, with about 90 metric tons of "lethal security assistance."

It was part of a package of $200 million in U.S. defense aid announced last week for Ukraine.

Hey, what is Europe doing at this time? Frankly speaking, the current atmosphere is actually close to the eve of the Nazi attack on Poland.

Now that Russia is moving westward, isn't it related to Europe?

Last weekend, some European countries made some decisions,

Some are still hesitant. We can first guess who is the more positive party,

Who thinks that we should not tear ourselves apart with Russia.

The answer is waiting to be revealed. But these atmospheres are really a bit like the atmosphere before the Nazis attacked Poland.

However, the latest is that the United States and Britain have begun to evacuate some diplomats and their families.

On the other hand, U.S. congressmen have begun to prepare some targeted motions to prevent China from attacking Taiwan in troubled waters.

At the same time, China held the Winter Olympics in order to decorate Taiping, and at the same time, it fought with the US-Japan alliance every day, and on Ukraine's standpoint, it was flirting with Russia.

Of course, how does Beijing dynamically clear the ground and open the country to host the Winter Olympics. In addition to admiring the demeanor of the Winter Olympic athletes, you can also pay attention to the interaction between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, China and Taiwan.