[Comment] After Nobuyuki Baba becomes the new leader of the Japan Restoration Association, where will the post-Matsui Ichiro era go?

Today (27), for the first time since the establishment of the Japan Restoration Association, a new party leader was elected. Yes, this is the first time that the Japan Restoration Association has "elected" the leader of the party. Before that, it was "designated". This time, Nobuyuki Baba, hand-picked by the current party leader Ichiro Matsui, won an overwhelming victory. It can be expected that in a short period of time, the direction of the Japan Restoration Society will continue the existing line without much change.

*Editor's Note: To be precise, the "Japan Restoration Association" is a political party that can nominate candidates in national elections such as Senate and House of Representatives. The "Osaka Restoration Association" is a local political party that can nominate the chief executive and local councillors within the scope of Osaka's local self-government. Due to the high degree of overlap in the composition of the members of the two political parties, it is customary for the author to refer to the whole as "Osaka Restoration Society". The term "Japan Restoration Society" will only be used in this article unless it specifically refers to the state political party "Japan Restoration Society".

Who is Ichiro Matsui?

Most Taiwanese's impression of the Osaka Restoration Conference may only be Toru Hashimoto and the current governor of Osaka Prefecture Yoshimura Yoshinori. In fact, when Toru Hashimoto founded the Osaka Restoration Society in 2010, Ichiro Matsui was the founding veteran.

As a local administrative party, the Osaka Restoration Association's biggest political goal is to integrate Osaka Prefecture and Osaka City into "Osaka Metropolis". In order to realize the "Osaka Metropolis Vision", or in other words, to integrate Osaka Prefecture and Osaka City as much as possible before this goal is achieved, the slogan of the Osaka Restoration Society is to make the candidates of the Osaka Restoration Society, By electing the Governor of Osaka Prefecture and the Mayor of Osaka at the same time, and turning the public affairs of Osaka Prefecture and City into party affairs, it is possible to integrate the issue of "Double Administration" of Osaka Prefecture and City (Double Administration is the term of the Osaka Restoration Association).

Ichiro Matsui is the one who has been on the stage for 12 years no matter who he is with Toru Hashimoto to Yoshimura Yoshimura, and how the positions of Governor of Osaka Prefecture and Mayor of Osaka are changed . There is also a saying that Ichiro Matsui is an absolute existence in the party affairs within the Osaka Restoration Society, and everything has to go through him, and he is the one who works under Joe.

Therefore, when Ichiro Matsui failed again in the "Osaka Metropolitan Vision 2.0" vote in 2020, he resigned as the leader of the "Osaka Restoration Council" and announced that he would retire from politics after the end of his term as mayor of Osaka (if there is no accident, it can be done April next year), and at the press conference on the polling day for the Senate re-election in July this year, when he announced that he would resign as the leader of the Japan Restoration Society (*), it was a foreshadowing that the Osaka Restoration Society would finally enter the "Post-Matsui." Ichiro era".

＊Before the vote today, the leader of the national political party "Japan Restoration Council" was Ichiro Matsui, and Yoshimura Yoshimura was the co-representative of the Japan Restoration Council; Yoshimura was also the leader of the regional political party "Osaka Restoration Council". Before Yoshimura took over as the leader of the "Osaka Restoration Society", Ichiro Matsui was the leader of the "Osaka Restoration Society", and Yoshimura was the acting leader of the "Osaka Restoration Society". Basically, the current "Japan Restoration Council" and "Osaka Restoration Council" are divided into two political parties only because of legal issues.

Who will be the successor in the post-Matsui Ichiro era?

For Ichiro Matsui, in theory, there will be no national elections until April next year when the mayor's term ends, so last month's Senate election is equivalent to his last election campaign to lead the Japan Restoration Society. Resigning the party leader after the Senate re-election is the most suitable time. But for the Japan Restoration Society or the Osaka Restoration Society, Ichiro Matsui is equivalent to the signboard of these (two) parties since their founding. Without Ichiro Matsui, the core figures of the entire party will be missing. Now the Japan Restoration Society Or the Osaka Restoration Conference, except for Yoshimura Yoshinori, no one can be compared to Matsui Ichiro in terms of popularity.

The Osaka Restoration Society is basically a political party supported by charismatic leaders. When it comes to the Osaka Restoration Conference, everyone will only think of Toru Hashimoto, Ichiro Matsui and Yoshinori Yoshimura. As for the candidates nominated by the Osaka Restoration Society? Voters may not be able to name the candidate, everyone will only remember that "this person was nominated by the Osaka Restoration Association" and "the candidate supported by Ichiro Matsui and Yoshinori Yoshimura". This also allows the Osaka Restoration Association to have more young (but less well-known) lawmakers participating in politics than other political parties.

However, although Yoshimura Yoshimura is the perfect candidate for the successor of the "post-Matsui Ichiro era", he is also a political figure who is even more well-known than Matsui Ichiro on the stage of the Osaka Restoration Conference, but Yoshimura Yoshimura does not want to continue. meaning of politics. It is currently believed that Yoshinori Yoshimura is very likely to announce his retirement after the end of the Osaka Expo in 2025. An observation point is that when Ichiro Matsui failed again in the referendum on the "Osaka Metropolitan Vision 2.0" at the end of 2020 and resigned as the leader of the "Osaka Restoration Meeting", Yoshimura Yoshimura went out to run for the "Osaka Restoration Meeting". selected. But this time when Matsui Ichiro resigned as the leader of the "Japan Restoration Association", Yoshimura Yoshimura made it very clear that he would not run for election. He really didn't even come out to choose. The argument that Yoshimura Yoshinkai will retire after the end of the Osaka Expo in 2025 is more credible.

The once interesting party leadership election

After Yoshinori Yoshimura stated that he would not run for the party leadership, the election for the party leader of the Japan Restoration Society was once very exciting.

In addition to Nobuyuki Baba, who is both a founding party member of the Osaka Restoration Society and a co-representative of the party, along with Ichiro Matsui, the incumbent Senator Toru also wanted to run for the election at first, but Ichiro Matsui persuaded him to quit, and Ichiro Matsui also expressed his support for the situation. Nobuyuki Horse Farm. The last remaining candidates were only Nobuyuki Baba, Yasushi Adachi, the chairman of the party's political affairs investigation, and Umemura, the vice-chairman of the political investigation.

With the support of Ichiro Matsui (and Yoshinori Yoshimura), Nobuyuki Baba should be able to qualify smoothly. However, one feature of the party leader election of the Japan Restoration Society is that the current members and other special party members and general party members have one person, one vote, and the votes are equal in the election of the party leader. There are 586 special party members and 19,292 general party members who are eligible to vote. Whether the general party members can vote for Nobuyuki Baba following Ichiro Matsui's "party will" is unknown.

After Nobuyuki Baba was elected

It has now been determined that it was Nobuyuki from the horse farm. Both Nobuyuki Baba and Ichiro Matsui are the founders of the party. He is also the successor appointed by Ichiro Matsui. It can be expected that the general direction of the entire party will not change much in the short term, but in the long run Not necessarily so.

A major feature of this party leader election is that the three candidates are members of Congress, and the chief executive of Osaka is no longer selected. This means that in the future, Japan Restoration will have the opportunity to get rid of the local color of giving priority to Osaka, and move towards the direction of the national political party. The performance of the Japan Restoration Society in the Diet, or the competition and cooperation with other political parties, may also be able to break away from the past model.

But this is good and bad. The good thing is that if the Japan Restoration Society can successfully get rid of its Osaka-centered image, it will have the opportunity to continue to expand its national territory. After the Japan Restoration Conference is replaced by Nobuyuki Baba, there are less charismatic politicians on the stage. Is the ability to attract votes as strong? The bad part is that if the Japan Restoration Society decides to weaken the local color of Osaka, how the Japan Restoration Society will deal with the relationship with the Osaka Restoration Society and the local voters in Osaka will test Nobuyuki Baba's skills. It seems that Baba Nobuyuki is not like Ichiro Matsui, a figure who can move towards centralization.

Next, how Baba Nobuyuki will deal with the relationship between the Japan Restoration Society and other political parties, whether it will maintain the line of the Liberal Democratic Party's flank in the past, or will it move towards a certain cooperative relationship with the opposition forces, will be an angle that deserves attention.

This article is simultaneously published in the Japanese current affairs まとめ translation of Kaori Ishikawa .