China Benefits, Russia Weakens——Interview with Democracy Activist Yang Jianli

Translator's note: This is an exclusive interview written by Shinichi Akiyama, Washington correspondent of Japan's "Mainichi Shimbun", and it will be published in the electronic version on March 30, 2022, and in the paper version on April 2, 2022. ( https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220402/ddm/007/030/073000c )

The reaction of Chinese President Xi Jinping to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has attracted worldwide attention. Why doesn't China criticize Russia? What is the purpose? We interviewed Yang Jianli, a Chinese democracy activist living in the United States, with related questions. Interviewer: Washington-based reporter Shinichi Akiyama.

Alleviate the pressure from the United States and Europe

Some commentators believe that as the "failure" of Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine becomes more and more visible, it will become increasingly difficult for Xi Jinping to deal with relations between Russia and the United States and Europe. However, this is a misunderstanding. Xi Jinping will continue to support the existence of the Putin regime. A weakened Putin regime would lose the power to threaten China, but it would be enough to create some trouble for the US and Europe, which would predictably distract the US and Europe from their pressure on China. In the medium to long term, this will present a "best scenario" for China.

China is by no means neutral to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It clearly sided with Russia from the start. In recent years, China has been regarded by the United States, Japan and European countries as "the greatest threat to the democratic world and world security". One can feel that the United States, Europe and other countries are indeed growing together. But at this moment, Mr. Putin made a sudden move, replacing China at the forefront of the "cold war" with the United States and Europe. Xi Jinping, of course, welcomes such actions by Russia.

However, China does not support Russia's actions unconditionally. The principle of safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity must also be adhered to. China does not want Russia to directly control Ukraine. Likewise, China does not welcome the independence of eastern Ukraine. If it sets a precedent for foreign interference in "the country's internal affairs," it will have an impact on dealing with issues such as Taiwan in the future. However, as long as these prerequisites are met, it is not a problem for China. The "establishment of a pro-Russian puppet government" that Russia expects is a situation that China can accept.

However, Putin and Xi must have been shocked that Russia did not achieve its operational objectives as planned due to staunch Ukrainian resistance. Subsequently, Xi Jinping quickly changed his strategy. Even if Putin's invasion of Ukraine fails, Putin will continue to be in power in Russia, and the sanctions imposed by the United States, Europe and other countries on Russia will continue -- these situations will benefit China.

First, the Putin regime is isolated internationally, and the economy will be even more vulnerable. While China and Russia are currently cooperating against the U.S., they also have a history of ongoing hostility. Once Russia continues to weaken, it will not be able to challenge China in Central Asian countries where Chinese and Russian national interests conflict. On the other hand, a nuclear-armed Russia would retain its ability to cause trouble for the United States and Europe. The United States and Europe have to devote more energy to dealing with Russia, and may not be able to adequately deal with China's international expansionist line. This will create better strategic opportunities for China.

Out of this calculation, China accepted the assumption that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had “failed” and shifted its strategic goal toward prolonging the life of Putin’s regime rather than helping him win the war.

China will continue to avoid providing direct military assistance to Russia in the future. China has adopted a very cautious approach. At the same time, it does not publicly refer to Russia's "aggression", does not impose sanctions and avoids condemnation. China will mention the civilian casualties caused by the war and provide some humanitarian assistance, but for now it is keeping a cool watch. China may appear as a mediator in situations where parties want China to intervene to end a war, but it will take no action when conflicting parties are deeply divided.

The United States clarifies its attitude of "defending Taiwan"

Looking at the steps taken by the United States and Europe to deal with Russia, China will also make further preparations for seeking to invade Taiwan. If it suffers sanctions from the United States and Europe, China may strengthen its domestic economic involution and energy reserves. The sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and Europe are strong, but they are not enough to dissuade China's ambition to invade Taiwan. Moreover, China's economic scale is larger, and the sanctions will also seriously damage the United States and Europe, which have a huge trade volume with China.

In order to deter China, the United States should strengthen its countermeasures. For example, the United States could express its intention to defend Taiwan by enhancing diplomatic relations with Taiwan. While there is no need to provoke China with public statements, efforts to deepen cooperation with Taiwan can send a clear message. In addition, launched an investigation into the assets held by the CCP leadership overseas, and expressed the message: "Based on China's behavior, the United States will impose sanctions, such as freezing assets, or disclosing the content of asset information." This would also be valid action. If assets hidden overseas were released, China's leadership would face criticism at home. While Xi Jinping's power is overwhelming, the will of the leadership must also be taken into account. If pressured by these specific sanctions, they could ease China's march toward an armed invasion of Taiwan.

Japan also needs to think strategically. First, it should reduce its economic dependence on China. Despite the nine-article restriction of the constitution, Japan could consider establishing an "economic warfare" model to decouple supply chains from China in an orderly manner. Of course, Japan should also prepare for its own strategic defense in advance. If there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait in the future, it is very likely that the flames of war will soon spread to the Japanese territory and territorial waters where the US military base is located.

Translator: Lin Yun