The "Silage Wheat" short video went viral in the Mainland: Will there be a food crisis in China?

From mid to late May, Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places will gradually enter the wheat harvest season, and the wheat harvest in Shandong, Hebei and other places will start in early June.

However, since the beginning of May, a number of short videos of "cutting green wheat for fodder" have appeared on the Chinese Internet. The content generally revolves around the following events: farmers harvest large swathes of green, immature wheat seedlings and make them into "feeding animals". "Silage wheat" is purchased by cattle and sheep breeding enterprises, and one acre of silage wheat can be sold for RMB 1,500 or more, so many farmers have followed suit.

Such a video was widely circulated and sparked a controversy about "destroying wheat and grain". Some netizens were outraged by this, believing that this was a takeover planned by "external forces" to undermine China's food security. The online public opinion has been fermenting for many days, and finally the central government launched an investigation: On the afternoon of May 10, the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China announced that the short video of "cutting green wheat to make feed" circulating on the Internet had been carried out in relevant provinces. Verification and verification have been carried out, and all localities have been asked to comprehensively investigate all kinds of damaged wheat, such as the start of construction, silage wheat, etc., and "find and deal with them together."

After several days of investigation, the original appearance of the incident gradually became clear. Regarding the "silage wheat" incident, some farms did choose to purchase silage wheat from wheat farmers because of the "broken feed". However, the short video depicting "a large number of green wheat being harvested early across the country" is indeed hyped and exaggerated. It was indiscriminately disseminated by the marketing account of "traffic first", causing anxiety about "food security" on the Internet, and even some media made a fuss about it, creating a public opinion atmosphere that "China is about to have a food shortage".

Fortunately, after the start of the investigation, the anxiety on the Internet gradually subsided. Henan and Anhui provinces have also ordered to cooperate with relevant departments to comprehensively review the silage wheat videos released by Toutiao, WeChat, Douyin, Kuaishou and other media platforms, identify the authenticity and stop them one by one. Malicious hype. In a few days, the storm of public opinion should dissipate quickly.

Why "silage wheat" is difficult to scale

In all fairness, although this incident involves issues of food security and agriculture, rural areas and farmers, it more reflects the unfamiliarity of Chinese Internet users with agricultural issues, and even the trend of marketing accounts, a large number of netizens, driven by emotions, automatically contributed considerable traffic and discussions. . In fact, even if the central government does not initiate an investigation, just by observing the dynamics of China's agricultural market, it can be found that although the high-priced purchase of "silage wheat" will happen, it is destined to be difficult to achieve a huge scale.

First of all, for farmers, purchasing silage wheat at a price of 1,500 yuan per mu is extremely uneconomical.

The so-called "silage" is to chop the raw material of forage with a moisture content of 60% to 70%, and place it in a closed and anoxic silage cellar for fermentation, which can not only effectively preserve the freshness and nutrients of the forage, but also supplement the protection of the forage. The feed gap under the policy is an important feed source for the dairy farming industry, accounting for about 50% to 60% of the overall diet. At present, the common silage crops in China include corn, alfalfa, pennisetum and rye. On the whole, high-nutrient corn is still the bulk; although wheat can also be silaged, it has not become the main choice for aquaculture farmers. The nutritional value of silage is low, and it is rarely used as silage.

Looking at the data over the years, the price of the aquaculture industry for purchasing one mu of silage corn is about 1,200 to 1,300 yuan; the price of 1,500 yuan per mu to purchase silage wheat with less nutritional value is an extremely rare act in a state of emergency. . Even if there are a few dairy farmers, it is true that the floods in Henan in 2021 will affect the production of silage corn, coupled with their own insufficient feed reserves, improper management and other factors, they need to purchase the remaining silage, the protein content of alfalfa is also higher than that of silage wheat, and the comprehensive price is also A more cost-effective alternative would be to choose silage wheat, which may be more out of the consideration of "convenience of location", that is, there are wheat fields near the farm, and the manufacturer has purchased silage from various wheat farmers in the immediate aftermath of the shortage of feed. wheat.

Second, there are reports on the Internet that farmers choose to harvest early because of low grain prices and “low grain prices hurt farmers”, which makes them reluctant to harvest wheat fields before they mature. Such a statement also deviates from the truth. The purchase price of 1,500 yuan per mu is indeed higher than the average price of 1,300 yuan per mu of wheat, but the price of silage wheat is linked to the price of wheat. .

In addition, affected by factors such as the late wheat planting in 2021 and the reduction of international wheat production due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of wheat in China has also risen this year, and it will produce more benefits over time. The key reason why wheat farmers choose to harvest early is that the breeders offer an attractive price of more than 1,500 yuan per mu. For farmers, harvesting early at this high price can not only save subsequent cost investment, but also pay close attention to Time to plant the remaining crops for the next new income.

All in all, it is true that breeders purchase silage wheat at high prices, but this is only a very individual behavior, not a common phenomenon. farmers.

Is China's food security worry-free?

As for whether the purchase of silage wheat will affect China's food security, the answer is not as good as what is stated on the Internet.

First, the acquisition of silage wheat was a very different event on the Internet. The large-scale harvest of wheat across the country did not happen. Now the central government has issued a document to prohibit such behavior, blocking the possibility of subsequent follow-up fermentation; Second, as early as the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, China began to import a large amount of grains such as wheat and corn, increasing its important grain reserves. By the end of 2021, China's wheat reserves were sufficient to cover the needs of 18 months. Given the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and global inflation, China will be one of the few countries that is relatively able to adapt to grain shortages and slow food price increases.

However, even if there is no immediate food security crisis, the central government still attaches great importance to this incident, and the influence of the Internet is the key.

From a practical point of view, the silage wheat issue was not originally related to food security, but it may be because of several short videos on the Internet that did not specify the location and time, creating an atmosphere of "silage wheat market is very good", leading to wheat farmers all over the country. Follow suit, and harvest wheat early for a momentary impulse.

If wheat farmers have inquired about market demand in advance, they will find that acquirers are not common or even very rare. If they give up their thoughts, they will mostly stay in the field of public opinion; but if they omit the inquiry link, they will directly harvest Tian Zhongqing. Mai, and waiting for a buyer who does not know where they are to come to negotiate a purchase, may lose the family's livelihood and make months of hard work for nothing. And in the international context of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the failure of the ration wheat harvest may cast a shadow on long-term food security and increase the risk of anxiety. As a country with a large population, China has not slackened its capital even if it is well prepared.

In the final analysis, the three rural issues not only involve factors such as land, market, population structure, and international situation, but with the rise of the Internet, public opinion speculation has also become a consideration. In fact, as early as before the silage wheat incident, China had a fixed proportion of wheat for feed every year. The reason behind this was related to the upgrading of the people's food structure and the increase in consumption of meat, eggs and milk, which led to an increase in the proportion of feed grains.

Today, there are 300 million mu of wheat planting area in China. Due to the low market demand for silage wheat, its dedicated planting area is only several hundred thousand mu, but it still has a certain scale. Therefore, it is also possible that the online video shows the harvest of the silage wheat field in the past, but it was improperly marketed as "this year's silage wheat market is very good", which not only induces a collective panic that "China is about to detonate a food crisis", and may even shake the wheat harvest. , leading to a real food crisis. The power of public opinion may seem illusory, but it can defeat things invisibly.

Original published URL:

2022.5.19

The "Silage Wheat" short video went viral in the Mainland: Will there be a food crisis in China? | Hong Kong 01 https://www.hk01.com/sns/article/771324