Gray Lecture - Political Opinions - Putin: "I'm just a 70-year-old man who wants to retire safely."

Recently, Putin has invaded Ukraine in a big way, which has fallen below everyone’s glasses. For the sake of traffic, let’s talk about pedantic views. First of all, Western countries led by the United States generally believe that once Putin invades Ukraine, Russia will suffer a huge amount of money. The cost of economic and human losses was calculated, and it was believed that Putin would lose more than the gains. Therefore, the United States and NATO dared to continue to violate the agreement of the year, constantly touching Putin's bottom line and trying to expand NATO further eastward to the door of Russia, causing this war. the outbreak.

In terms of game theory, the calculation of each item is indeed the same, so no one thought that the game would start until the moment before the start of the war, but there was a huge gap between the final reality and the discrepancy. Why is this? That's because strategic experts and scholars presupposed the wrong conditions for Russian policymakers. A retired national leader under the strongman and totalitarian political system may well be the next leader along with himself and his entire family. liquidation.

This is the sadness of the unavoidable loneliness under the totalitarian system. Putin, who was born in 1952, cannot be like Trump and Biden, who can retire at home after stepping down. He has to face countless calculations and challenges from the opposition, so how can he retire safely? This is the most important consideration for the 70-year-old Putin at present. It is definitely not the news that he wants to restore the Soviet Union to become a modern tsar, because this dream is not just one step away. On this road, there is the United States before and the possibility of hiding power later. , China, which is actually stronger than itself, coupled with the reality of the international situation, as long as the other party has a nuclear bomb, it is almost impossible to further annex it. (Please refer to North Korea, Iran.)

To become a modern tsar and restore the Soviet Union is just the best slogan and choice to maintain his long-term dominance. Since they are all planning their way back, how could they order an attack on Ukraine? I use another example to explain this problem.

There is an old man who is about to retire this year at 65. He has been diligent and kind in his life and has never violated the law. He was embarrassed to go to the police station to ask for directions. As a result, on the eve of applying for retirement, the government suddenly said that the country’s finances were tight, and the application must be postponed until the age of 70. , After two years, it was announced that the pension payment amount would be reduced again. Do you think this elderly person who is nearly 70 years old, let alone the police station! Dare to go to the street and rush into the presidential palace?

The biggest similarity between this old man and Putin is that he still has his own savings to live without a pension. Even if Ukraine joins NATO, no one dares to fight Russia. The biggest difference is that the old man does not. Pensions may be a little more difficult in the future, but it is different for Putin. Today Ukraine joins NATO, and everyone will join NATO tomorrow. I know you dare not fight Russia, but my public opinion and my political opponents will not. Let me go, I have the risk of dying for my whole family, so I have to immediately send troops to show my strength to let the surrounding small countries and NATO completely dispel their thoughts.

Therefore, Western countries use Russia's position of profit and loss to look at possible conflicts, which is a mistake in itself. Under the totalitarian system, Putin's personal gains and losses are far greater than the interests of the country. If the interests of the country are used to consider the dictatorship The final result is that people who have played with fire will suffer.

PS is also a leader of a small country. We should be glad that the political pattern of President Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan is significantly higher than that of Ukrainian President Zelensky. We clearly know that Taiwan independence is a campaign slogan, and can never be used to act against China seriously. The second war between Russia and Ukraine is not what the world said, and the next one will be the war in the Taiwan Strait. Instead, it will lead international countries and people on both sides of the strait to view the issue of reunification and independence more rationally.