The metaverse: what it is, where to find it, and who builds it

Compiled from Matthew Ball's article " The Metaverse: What It Is, Where to Find it, and Who Will Build It " (2020/1/13)

Technology often creates surprises that no one can predict. However, technological developments are often anticipated decades in advance. In 1945, Vannevar Bush described a device he called a "Memex" that would store all books, records and communications and mechanically link them together by association. This concept then gave rise to the concept of "hypertext" ( a term that came about two decades later), which in turn guided the development of the World Wide Web (another two decades later). The "Streaming Wars" have only just begun, yet the first streaming video appeared twenty-five years ago. Furthermore, many attributes of this so-called "war" have been assumed for decades, such as virtually unlimited content availability, on-demand playback, interactivity, dynamic and personalized advertising, and the value of merging content with distribution.

In this sense, the broad outlines of future solutions are often understandable, and in a sense, consensus has been reached before the technical capabilities that produced them. However, we often cannot predict how they will materialize, which features are more or less important, what governance models or competitive dynamics will drive them, or what new experiences will result. When Netflix launched its streaming service, most in Hollywood knew that the future of TV was online (IP TV was deployed in the late 1999s). The challenge is timing and how to package such a service (it took Hollywood another 10 years to accept that all their channels, genres and content needed to be integrated into one app/brand). The popularity of video game broadcasts and YouTubers is still daunting to many in the media industry, as the best way to monetize content may be to give it away for free and charge for optional $0.99 items that have no value at all. Based on the idea that media and technology/distribution needed to converge, landline internet giant America Online (AOL) bought media conglomerate Time Warner in 2000, but the deal closed in 2009 after failing to generate much benefit. Nine years later, it was acquired by mobile internet giant AT&T under the same premise.

While many technologists imagine some kind of "personal computer," its characteristics and timing are so unpredictable that Microsoft, not the mainframe, dominated the era of personal computers that began in the 1990s Overlord IBM. While Microsoft clearly foresaw the mobile space, it misread the role of operating systems and hardware, hence the global rise of Android and iOS (and Microsoft's move from the OS layer to the app/service layer). In a similar sense, Steve Jobs' priorities in computing were always "right", they were just premature and focused on the wrong device. More broadly, the two prime examples of the early Internet were instant messaging and email, but the importance of social applications/networks was not anticipated until the late 2000s. For that matter, all the prerequisites for building Facebook existed before 2000, but Facebook didn't appear until 2005—and even then, it was a surprise.

Since the late 1970s and early 1980s, many in the tech world have envisioned the future state of the Internet, if not its quasi-successor, the "Metaverse." It will revolutionize not only the infrastructure layers of the digital world, but also the physical world, and all the services and platforms on top of them, and how they work and what they sell. While the full vision of the "Metaverse" remains elusive, seemingly fantasy, and decades away, the pieces are starting to feel very real. Like this change, its arc is long and unpredictable because its end state is profitable.

To that end, the "Metaverse" has become the latest macro target for many of the world's tech giants. As I stated in February 2019, this is a clear goal of Epic Games, the developer of Unreal Engine and Fortnite. It's also the driving force behind Facebook's acquisition of Oculus VR and its newly released Horizon virtual world/meeting space, as well as many other projects such as AR glasses and brain-computer interfaces and communications. Tens of billions of dollars will be spent on cloud gaming over the next decade, also based on the belief that such technologies will underpin our online-offline virtual future.

Ultimately, you'll find many of the same things in the offices of big tech CEOs. The oldest, however, is probably a copy of Neal Stephenson's Snow Crash, which first described and created the "Metaverse" and "Avatar" term. there are many reasons.

Chapter 1: What is the Metaverse?

The most common concept of the "metaverse" stems from science fiction. Here, the "Metaverse" is often depicted as a digitally "jacked-in" Internet - a representation of the real world, but based on a virtual (often theme park-like) world , as depicted in Ready Player One and The Matrix. While these experiences are likely to be an aspect of the "Metaverse," the concept is also limited, as films such as "Tron" portray the Internet as a literal digital "information superhighway." superhighway).

Just like in 1982 it's hard to imagine what the internet will be like in 2020 - and it's even harder to convey it to people who have never even "logged" on the internet at the time - we really don't know how to describe "meta" Metaverse. However, we can identify its core properties.

We believe that the Metaverse will...

1. is persistent - that is, it never "resets" or "pauses" or "ends", it just continues indefinitely
2. is synchronous and real-time - even if pre-scheduled, self-contained events will occur, as in "real life", the "Metaverse" will be a real-time, continuous Existing in everyone's life experience
3. There is no cap on concurrent users, while also providing each user with a personal "presence" - everyone can become part of the "Metaverse" and participate in specific events with individual institutions at the same time/ Location/Event
4. Be a fully functioning economy - individuals and businesses will be able to create, own, invest, sell, and be rewarded through a variety of "jobs" that generate "value" that is recognized by others
5. Be an experience that spans digital and physical worlds, private and public networks/experiences, and open and closed platforms
6. Provides unprecedented interoperability of data, digital props/assets, content, etc. in these experiences - for example, your Counter-Strike gun skin can also be used to decorate a gun in Fortnite, or as a Facebook gifts for friends. Likewise, cars designed for Rocket League (or even Porsche's website) can be brought to Roblox for use. Today, the digital world is basically like a shopping mall, where each store uses its own currency, requires a proprietary ID card, has a proprietary unit of measure, has a proprietary unit of measure for things like shoes or calories, and Different dress codes, etc.
7. Populated by "content" and "experiences" created and run by a wide variety of contributors, some of which are independent individuals, while others may be informally organized groups or business-focused businesses

There are other ideas that may be at the heart of the "Metaverse" but are not widely shared. One of the questions is whether participants will have a unified digital identity (or "avatar" [avatar]) that will be used across all experiences. This would have practical value, but is probably unlikely since every leader of the "Metaverse era" would still want to have their own identity system. For example, there are a few dominant account systems today - but none of them fully cover the web, and they tend to stack on top of each other with limited data sharing/access (e.g. your iPhone is based on an iOS account, then you might use You log into an app with your Facebook ID, which itself is your Gmail account).

There is also disagreement about how much interoperability is needed to make the Metaverse truly "the Metaverse," not just the evolution of the internet today. Many are still debating whether a true "Metaverse" can have a single operator (as was the case in Ready Player One). Some argue that the definition (and success) of the "Metaverse" requires it to be a highly decentralized platform built primarily on community-based standards and protocols (such as the open web) and the "open source" Metaverse operating system (Metaverse) OS) or platforms (which doesn't mean there won't be a dominant closed platform in the "metaverse").

Another idea has to do with the basic communication architecture of the Metaverse. This is described in more detail later in the article, but today's internet revolves around individual servers "talking" as needed, and some argue that the "Metaverse" needs to revolve around persistent many-to-many connections "wired" and "operated". But even on this issue, there is no consensus on how exactly this mechanism will work and the level of decentralization required.

It is also helpful to consider what the "Metaverse" is often [wrongly] likened to. While these analogies may well be part of the Metaverse, they are not actually the Metaverse. For example, the Metaverse is not…

1. A "virtual world" - virtual worlds and games with AI characters have existed for decades, as have virtual worlds populated in real time by "real" humans. This is not a "meta" (Greek for "transcendence") universe, just a synthetic and fictional universe designed for a single purpose (game).
2. "virtual space" - digital content experiences like Second Life are often considered "proto-Metaverses" because they (A) lack a game-like objective or skill system; (B) persistent virtual venues; (C) nearly simultaneous content updates; (D) digital avatars to represent real humans. However, these are not enough for the Metaverse.
3. "Virtual reality" - VR is a way of experiencing a virtual world or space. Presence in the digital world does not constitute a "metaverse". It's like saying you have a thriving city because you can see it and walk around it.
4. The “digital and virtual economy” – these also exist. Individual games such as World of Warcraft have long had well-functioning economic mechanisms in which real people can exchange virtual goods for real money, or perform virtual tasks in exchange for real money. Also, platforms like Amazon's Mechanical Turk, and technologies like Bitcoin, are based on hiring individuals/businesses/computing power to perform virtual and digital tasks. We are already doing large-scale transactions for digital-only projects with digital-only activities through digital-only marketplaces.
5. "Game" - Fortnite has many elements of the "Metaverse". It (A) mixes IP; (B) has a consistent identity across multiple closed platforms; (C) is a gateway to countless experiences, some of which are purely social; (D) rewards creators who create content, etc. . However, as is the case with Ready Player One, it's still too narrow (at least for now) in what it does, how far it expands, and what "work" can happen. While the Metaverse may have some game-like goals, including games, and involve gamification, it is not a game per se, nor is it oriented toward a specific goal.
6. A "virtual theme park or Disneyland" - not only are the "attractions" infinite, they are not centrally "designed" or programmed like Disneyland, nor are they all about fun or entertaining.
7. A "new app store" - no one needs another way to open an app, nor in "VR" (take VR as an example) to unlock/enable everything the next generation internet envisaged values. The Metaverse is fundamentally different from today's internet/mobile model, architecture and priorities.
8. A "new UGC platform" - "Metaverse" is not just another YouTube or Facebook-like platform where countless people can "create", "share" ) and “monetize” content, while the most popular content represents only a small fraction of overall consumption. The 'Metaverse' would be a place to invest and build the right empires where these well-capitalized businesses can fully own customers, control APIs/data, unit economics, etc. Also, probably like the web, there are a dozen or so platforms that have a large share of user time, experience, content, etc.

( If you want to think of the "metaverse" in a simpler way, you can think of it as The Nightmare Before Christmas - you can enter any experience or activity and potentially address almost any of your needs, from a single The starting point or the world that is also made up of other people you know. That's why hypertext is such an important example. But it's important to realize that the "metaverse" is not a game, a hardware, or an online experience .It's like saying World of Warcraft, iPhone or Google are the Internet. They are the digital world, devices, services, websites, etc. The Internet is a broad set of protocols, technologies, conduits and languages, plus access to devices, content and communication experience. "Metaverse" will be the same. )

Chapter 2: Why is the "metaverse" important?

Even if the "Metaverse" isn't as fantastical as science fiction authors portray it, as a new computing platform or medium of content, it has the potential to create trillions of value. But in its full vision, the Metaverse will be the gateway to most digital experiences, a key component of all physical experiences, and the next great platform for labor.

The value of being a major player (if not a driver) in such a system is self-evident - there is no "owner" of the Internet today, but almost all leading Internet companies are among the world's most powerful Listed among the 10 listed companies by value. If the "Metaverse" does act as a functional "successor" to the network -- only this time with more influence, more time, and more commerce -- it could lead to more economic benefits. In any case, the Metaverse should generate opportunities for diversity like we see on the web - new companies, products and services will emerge to manage everything from payment processing to authentication, recruiting, advertising , content creation, security, and more. This in turn means that many existing companies may fall.

More broadly, the Metaverse will change the way we allocate and monetize modern resources. Advanced economies have transformed over the centuries as labor shortages and real estate ebb and flow. In the Metaverse, potential workforces who choose to live outside cities will be able to participate in the “high-value” economy through virtual workforces. As more consumer spending shifts to virtual goods, services and experiences, we will also see further shifts in where we live, the infrastructure we build, and who performs which tasks. Take Gold Farming as an example. Soon after the in-game trade economy emerged, many "players"—often employed by a large corporation, usually in low-income countries—would spend a working day collecting digital assets to sell either in-game or out-of-game. These sales are usually aimed at high-income players in the West. While this "job" is often trivial, repetitive, and limited to a few applications, the variety and value of this "job" will grow with the development of the Metaverse itself.

Chapter 3: Building the Metaverse

The Metaverse will require countless new technologies, protocols, companies, innovations and discoveries to function. It won't exist directly; there won't be a clear "Before Metaverse" and "After Metaverse." Instead, it will emerge slowly over time as different products, services, and capabilities are integrated and converged. However, it is helpful to consider three core elements that need to be put in place.

( One way I try to think of these three domains procedurally is through Genesis - first, the underlying universe ("concurrency infrastructure") must be created, and then its physical laws and rules are defined ( “standards and protocols”), then populate it with life (“content”) that is valuable and will evolve and iterate with selection pressure. In other words, God did not create and design a world of miniature models, but man was able to grow in an almost blank scene. )

Concurrency Infrastructure

At a fundamental level, this technology simply cannot have hundreds of people, let alone millions, participating in a shared, synchronized experience. Consider Fortnite's 2019 Marshmello concert. Astoundingly, 11 million people experienced the event in real time. However, they did not experience it together. In fact, there are over 100,000 instances of Marshmello concerts, all of which are slightly out of sync, and each instance is capped at 100 players. Today, Epic may be able to do more, but not hundreds, let alone millions.

Not only does the infrastructure the Metaverse require does not currently exist, but the Internet was never designed to come close to this experience. After all, the internet was designed to share files from one computer to another. Therefore, most of the underlying systems of the Internet revolve around one server communicating with another server or end-user device. This pattern continues to this day. For example, there are billions of people on Facebook today, but each user shares a separate connection with the Facebook servers, not with any other user. So, when you access other users' content, you're really just getting the latest information Facebook is giving you. The earliest form of pseudo-syncr was text chat, but you still just pushed a lot of static data to the server and pulled the latest information from the server as needed. The Internet was simply not designed for persistent (as opposed to continuous) communications, let alone persistent communications that are precisely synchronized in real time with countless others.

In order to function, the Metaverse needs something more akin to video conferencing and video games. These experiences work because persistent connections update each other in real time and have an accuracy that other programs typically don't need. However, they tend not to have high concurrency: most video chat programs can only accommodate a few people at most, and once you reach 50, you often need to "live stream" to your audience instead of sharing a two-way connection.

To that end, part of the reason the battle royale genre in video games has only recently caught on is that it's only recently been possible to play with so many other users. While some games with high concurrency have been around for over two decades, such as Second Life or Warcraft, they essentially "sharding" and divides users into different "worlds" and servers to trick the user experience. Take Eve Online as an example, technically there are over 100,000 players "in the same game", but they are spread across different galaxies (i.e. server nodes) . As a result, players can only really see or interact with a small number of other players at the same time. Additionally, traveling to another galaxy means disconnecting one server and loading another (a process the game "hides" by forcing the player to jump at the speed of light to travel through vast spaces). If Eve Online did get into a battle involving hundreds of users, the system would be horribly slow. This still works because the gameplay is largely based on massive, pre-planned ship-based battles. If it's a "fast-paced" game like Rocket League or Call of Duty, then this slowdown isn't the place to play.

Many companies are working to solve this problem, such as Improbable. But it's a huge computational challenge and a challenge to the underlying design/intent of the internet.

Standards, Protocols, and their Adoption

The internet we experience today works because there are standards and protocols for visual presentation, file loading, communication, graphics, data, and more. These range from the consumer-recognizable .GIF file type to the websocket protocol, which underlies nearly all forms of real-time communication between browsers and other servers on the Internet.

The Metaverse will require a broader, more complex, and more resilient set of S&Ps. What's more, the importance of interoperability and a real-time sync experience means that we will need to pare down some of the existing standards and "standardize" around smaller feature sets. For example, there are several image file formats today: .GIF, .JPEG, .PNG, .BMP, .TIFF, .WEBP, etc. And, while today's web is built on open standards, most of them are closed and proprietary. Amazon, Facebook, and Google use similar technology, but they're not designed to convert to each other -- just as Ford's wheels aren't designed to fit a common chassis. Additionally, these companies are very resistant to cross-integrating their systems or sharing their data. These moves may increase the overall value of the “digital economy,” but they will also erode its highly valuable network effects, making it easier for users to move their digital lives elsewhere.

It will be very difficult and will take decades. And, the higher the value and interoperability of the Metaverse, the harder it will be to build industry-wide consensus on topics such as data security, data persistence, forward-compatible code evolution, and transactions. Additionally, the Metaverse will require entirely new rules for censorship, communications controls, regulatory enforcement, tax reporting, preventing online radicalization, and many of the challenges we are still grappling with today.

While the establishment of standards usually involves actual meetings, negotiations, and debates, the standards of the Metaverse are not pre-established. The standard-setting process is much more complex and organic, with meetings and opinions changing on an ad hoc basis.

To use a meta analogy for the Metaverse, consider SimCity. Ideally, the "mayor" (i.e. the player) would first design their metropolis and then build from day one to achieve the final vision. But in games, like in real life, you can't just "build" a city of 10 million people. You start with a small town and optimize it first (e.g. where are the roads, where are the schools, utility capacity, etc.). As the city grows, you build around the city, occasionally but wisely tearing down and replacing "old" parts, sometimes only in the event of a problem (insufficient power supply) or disaster (fire). But unlike SimCity, there will be many mayors instead of one — and their desires and motivations will often conflict.

We don’t know exactly what the Metaverse needs, let alone what existing standards will be transferred, how, with what effect, when, or through which applications and groups. So it's important to consider how the "metaverse" came about, not just around which technical standards.

The 'On-Ramp' Experience

Just as a Metaverse standard cannot simply be "announced", consumers and businesses will not accept a potential "proto-Metaverse" simply because it is available.

Consider the real world. Just because a mall can hold 100,000 people or 100 stores doesn't mean it will attract one consumer or one brand. "Town squares" emerge organically around existing infrastructure and behavior to meet existing civic and commercial needs. Ultimately, any meeting place—whether it’s a bar, basement, park, museum, or carousel—because of someone or something already there, not because it’s a place in and of itself.

The same goes for digital experiences. The world's largest social network, Facebook, succeeded not because it announced it was going to be a "social network," but because it first emerged as a campus hotspot and then into a photo-sharing and messaging service. Like Facebook, the Metaverse needs to be "populated", not just "populable," and then those populations must fill this digital world with things to do and Content to consume.

That's why it's too narrow and direct to think of Fortnite as a video game or an interactive experience. Fortnite started out as a game, but it quickly morphed into a social square. Players log into the game not to "play", but to be with friends in the virtual world and in the real world. Teens from the 1970s to 2010s spent three hours on the phone when they got home. Now, they chat with their friends on Fortnite, but not the game. Instead, they talk about school, movies, sports, news, boys, girls, and more. After all, Fortnite has no story or IP, the plot is what happens to it and who is there.

Additionally, Fortnite is fast becoming a medium for other brands, IPs and stories to express themselves. The most famous of these was last year's Marshmello live concert. In December 2019, the movie Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker released the highly anticipated footage exclusively in Fortnite as part of an in-game engagement with audiences, which included an interview with director J.J. Abrams' live interview. What's more, this activity is explicitly mentioned at the beginning of the film. The band Weezer has created a custom island where fans can listen to their new album exclusively (while dancing with other "players"). Fortnite also made several themed "limited-time modes". In some cases, these "limited-time modes" transform portions of Fortnite's maps into a miniature virtual world that changes the game's aesthetics, items, and gameplay when entered.

To that end, Fortnite is one of the few places where Marvel and DC's IPs cross. You can wear the costumes of Marvel characters in Gotham City while interacting with people wearing legally licensed NFL uniforms. This kind of thing hasn't really happened before. But it's crucial to the Metaverse.

More broadly, Fortnite has emerged with an entire secondary economy where "players" can create (and monetize) their own content. This can be as small as digital clothing ("skins") or dances ("expressions"). However, it has rapidly expanded to create all new games and experiences using Fortnite's engine, assets and aesthetics. From a simple treasure hunt, to an immersive fusion of the Brothers Grimm and parkour culture, to a 10-hour sci-fi story spanning multiple dimensions and timelines. In fact, Fortnite's Creative Mode is like a "proto-Metaverse". Here, players load up their digital avatar — an avatar specific to them, used in all Fortnite-related experiences — and enter a game-like lobby that can be accessed from thousands of "doors" ( doors) and send them to thousands of different worlds to experience with up to 99 other players.

This has to do with the game's long-term vision, something creative director Donald Mustard has become increasingly aware of. Fortnite isn't a Metaverse, but nothing comes close in spirit to today's Metaverse, and it's clear that this 'game' could end up supporting a 'Metaverse' ” (Metaverse).

Epic Game Plan by Epic Games

The best example of Fortnite's potential is its ability to persuade many so-called competitors to cooperate with each other (or "interoperability" in the early days). Today, Fortnite runs on major entertainment platforms such as iOS, Android, PlayStation, Nintendo, PC, Xbox, and more, allowing for complete crossover across multiple identity/account systems, payment methods, social graphs, and closed ecosystems game. Major gaming platforms have resisted the practice for years, arguing that the experience would destroy their network effects and reduce the need to buy proprietary hardware. The result is that people who play Call of Duty on PlayStation will never be able to play with friends who play Call of Duty on Xbox, even though both Sony and Microsoft know players want to.

Likewise, IP owners rarely allow their characters and stories to be mixed with other IPs. This does happen from time to time (it does happen from time to time (with some Marvel v DC comic books and video games, for example). But in an experience they can't control, it's hard for us to see the mix, let alone Experience based on unpredictability, and such a wide range of IPs.

This organic evolution cannot be overemphasized. If you "declare" that you want to start a "metaverse", these parties will never accept interoperability or delegate their IP. But Fortnite has become so popular, so unique, that most trading parties have no choice but to get involved - in fact, they may be desperate to get into the "game" - just as P&G can't say "Ugh, Facebook is not for us". Fortnite is a too valuable platform.

At the same time, Epic's efforts to build a "Metaverse" have brought far more than a plausible entry. In addition to operating Fortnite, which is theoretically a side project, Epic Games also owns Unreal, the second-largest indie game engine. That means thousands of games are already running on a "stack" of its tools and software (to simplify work), making it easier to share resources, integrate experiences, and share user profiles. Over time, the sophistication of Epic's game engine has become significant, and it now powers a variety of traditional media experiences. Disney's The Mandalorian was shot and fully rendered in Unreal, and director Jon Favreau was able to jump right into the digital set to set up shots and character positions. Viewers are free to study most of these scenes if Disney wants to — most of the environments and resources already exist. Outside of film and TV, Unreal is also increasingly used for live events: Unreal powers Fox Sports' NASCAR scenes, for example.

Still, the Metaverse requires everyone to be able to create and contribute "content" and "experiences," not just well-staffed companies and techies trying to make games or movies. To this end, Epic acquired Twinmotion in April last year. Instead of VFX engineers or game designers, the company was/is focusing on providing intuitive, icon-based software that enables "architecture, construction, urban planning and landscaping professionals" professionals) can generate realistic, immersive digital environments based on Unreal “in seconds.” According to Epic Games founder/CEO Tim Sweeney, this means There are now three authoring modes in Unreal: the standard "coding" engine itself, the more simplified and "visualizing" Twinmotion, and Fortnite's Creative Mode for those with no programming and design experience . Each option may become more powerful, easier to use and integrate over time.

Another increasingly important part of Epic's offering is its "Online Services" suite, which allows developers to support cross-platform play across Sony + Microsoft + Nintendo + PC + iOS + Android, and leverage Epic's account system/ social graph. That's not that unique in itself -- Microsoft bought PlayFab for $4 million and millions to support Xbox Live, while Amazon bought GameSparks and GameLift at the same time to make it easier for people who need a lot of servers and tools to run online games. of game developers sell services. Valve doesn't provide server infrastructure, but its Steamworks solution provides developers with free matchmaking and account services for free -- but only on the Steam Store, Valve's core business. This sheds light on Epic's approach to "Online Services." Unlike today's market leaders, Epic doesn't charge. It's also free for any engine, any platform, and any game. It operates on the scale of Fortnite's player network, allowing any game to tap into the world's largest player base to kickstart its own user base. There's obviously value in the service, but for Epic it's "even more valuable if it's free" as it expands the company's already massive social graph, making it easier for more games to "talk to" each other. ) and enable players to jump from experience to experience more seamlessly. All of this also reduces Epic's reliance on Fortnite when building the Metaverse. While Epic's "Online Services" is still in closed beta, the company says it will be publicly available in the second quarter of 2020 and will support "hundreds and thousands of games in 2020." It's also worth noting that these all reduce Epic's reliance on Fortnite in its long-term efforts to build the Metaverse.

Epic also operates one of the largest (though still small) digital game stores, meaning players already have access to a wide variety of digital content and experiences through Epic. Few consumers are asking for more fragmented digital content, and most consumers are quite happy with the market leader, Steam. However, Epic Games founder/CEO Tim Sweeney bluntly stated that today's standard 30% commission on digital content sales (such as iOS or Amazon or Google Play) is not only usury, but hinders true digital The establishment of the world economy. Imagine, for example, if credit card fees were not 0.5-2.5%, but 60-20 times as high; entire real economic sectors would not function (e.g. coffee shops or grocery stores). For this, Epic charges just 12% (which includes the 5% Unreal license fee, and for many users it's just 7%). It's worth noting that Tim Sweeney was rumored to have pushed for lower fees, but he struck a deal with the board for 12% -- a figure he himself admits doesn't always cover operations cost. That doesn't mean the overall business isn't considered here - running the store will undoubtedly help build the "Metaverse" - but Tim Sweeney's efforts appear to be broader. He publicly pleaded with Google and Apple to match Epic's rates.

Chapter 4: Who else can build the Metaverse?

While the Metaverse has the potential to replace the Internet as a computing platform, its underlying development process may have little in common with its predecessor. The Internet comes from public research universities and U.S. government programs. This is partly because few private companies understand the commercial potential of the World Wide Web, but it is also true that these groups are basically the only entities with the computing power, resources and ambition to build the World Wide Web. It's all different when it comes to the Metaverse.

Not only are private companies fully aware of the potential of the Metaverse, but they may have the most positive beliefs about this future, not to mention the most cash, the best engineering talent, and the greatest desire to conquer. Not only do major tech companies want to lead the Metaverse, they also want to own and define it. Open source projects with a non-entrepreneurial spirit will still play an important role—they will attract some of the most interesting creative minds in the Metaverse—but there are only a few possible leaders in the early Metaverse. And you'll recognize every leader.

Microsoft is a good example. With hundreds of millions of federated user identities through Office 365 and LinkedIn, the company is the second largest cloud computing provider in the world, with a broad suite of work-related software and services covering all systems/platforms/infrastructures, sharing online content at scale Clear technical experience/operations with a range of potential experiences through Minecraft, Xbox + Xbox Live and HoloLens. To that end, the Metaverse offers Microsoft an opportunity to regain the OS/hardware leadership it lost in the transition from PC to mobile. But more importantly, CEO Satya Nadella understands that Microsoft needs to at least be present where "work" happens. Microsoft has successfully adapted from business to consumer, PC to mobile, offline to online, while maintaining its dominance in the "office" economy, it's hard to imagine Microsoft not becoming a virtualized workforce and information processing The main driver for the future.

Although Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has not explicitly announced that he is going to develop and own the Metaverse, his obsession with the Metaverse seems fairly obvious. And that's a smart move. More than any other company, Facebook has the most to lose from the Metaverse, as it will build a larger, stronger social graph and represent a new computing platform and a new engagement platform. At the same time, the Metaverse also allows Facebook to expand its reach. Despite some efforts to build smartphone operating systems and deploy consumer hardware, Facebook is still an app/services company. Through the Metaverse, Facebook could become the next Android or iOS/iPhone, not to mention the Amazon of virtual goods.

Facebook's "metaverse" advantage is huge. It has more users, daily usage, and user content created daily than any other platform on the planet, as well as the second-largest share of digital ad spend, billions of dollars in cash, thousands of world-class engineers, and has The beliefs of the founders of the majority vote. Its Metaverse-oriented assets are also growing rapidly, including patents on semiconductors and brain-computer computing interfaces. At the same time, Facebook has a very poor track record as a platform where 3rd party developers/companies can build sustainable businesses and when it comes to managing user data/trust.

Amazon is interesting in a few ways. Most obviously, it always wants to be the main place where we buy "stuff". It doesn't matter if you buy it in a game engine, virtual world, or web browser (it's already sold in Twitch). In addition, the company has hundreds of millions of credit cards, has the largest share of e-commerce globally (excluding China), is the largest cloud computing provider in the world, and operates many different consumer media experiences (video, music, eBooks, audiobooks, video games, etc.) and 3rd party commercial platforms are building what they hope will be the first major gaming/rendering engine designed for the cloud computing era, and are reportedly developing AR glasses for home/office Leading the way in digital assistants.

What's more, founder/CEO Jeff Bezos takes infrastructure very seriously. For example, the network runs on AWS (Amazon's best business). 80% of its revenue is actually "Fulfilled by Amazon," where the company sells, packs, and delivers products sold by other businesses, rather than being bought by Amazon and selling inventory directly (like most retailers) . While Elon Musk's private aerospace company SpaceX aims to colonize Mars, Bezos has made it clear that his goal with Blue Origin is to promote space infrastructure, similar to Based on early network protocols and his AWS, "we could build gigantic chip factories in space and just send little bits down". As such, Amazon may favor a truly "open" "Metaverse" more than any other company, where it doesn't need to control user experience or ID, as it benefits from massive growth in back-end infrastructure usage and digital transactions.

The internet is a treasure trove of data, and the Metaverse will have more data than the web today, and perhaps even greater rewards. Globally, there is no company better at monetizing this data than Google. In addition, the company is not only the market leader in indexing the digital and physical worlds (nearly 10,000 employees participate in its mapping program), but also the most successful digital software and services company. It also operates the most used operating system on the planet (Android), and the most open major consumer computing platform. Although unsuccessful, Google was the first company to truly pursue the wearable computing opportunity with Google Glass, and has aggressively pushed home digitization with Google Assistant, Nest product suites, and FitBit. As such, the Metaverse is likely the only project that combines all of Google's investments to date, from Stadia's edge computing to Project Fi, Google Street View, wearables, virtual assistants, and more.

Apple is unlikely to drive or operate the underlying "Metaverse." Indeed, it operates the second largest computing platform in modern times (and by far the most valuable), and the largest game store on the planet (which also means it pays developers more than any other company on the planet) . Additionally, the company is investing heavily in AR devices and "connective tissue" to help build the "Metaverse." However, building an open authoring platform -- where everyone has access to all user data and device APIs -- goes against Apple's ethos and business strategy. All of this is to say that Apple is more likely to be the dominant way the Western world interacts with the Metaverse than the carrier/driver. Just like the internet, this will probably have good results for everyone.

If the Metaverse requires a broad interplay of assets, experiences, and common APIs, Unity will play a foundational role. More than half of all mobile games use this engine, and it is even more widely used than Unreal for real-world rendering/simulation use cases (e.g. architecture, design, engineering). Director Jon Favreau produced Disney's The Mandalorian in Unreal, while he also produced and shot the photorealistic The Lion King in Unity. It also operates one of the largest digital advertising networks. However, it is unclear what role Unity will play in driving the Metaverse. It has no store, no user account system, and no true direct-to-consumer experience. Most of its ancillary services (like non-engine or advertising) have not yet been widely adopted. Also, most (though not all) Unity-powered games are relatively simple mobile games, not those that might serve as gateways to the "Metaverse." However, its inevitable impact on standards, playtime and content creation is so great that it's hard to imagine it won't be acquired and integrated by a major technology company with broader assets and advantages.

In the past, the acquisition of Unity has been difficult to justify. Despite the company's enormous value, any potential acquirer would have to keep Unity completely platform-agnostic to maintain its market share, developer support, and influence. That doesn't mean that turning Unity into a proprietary engine isn't a smart move. The value destroyed by such a decision and the premium required to buy Unity is likely to make such a move prohibitive. However, if the goal of acquiring Unity is to ensure a foundational role in the new internet, the acquirer instead has an incentive to keep the engine open/available across platforms, and price can easily become irrelevant.

If Epic has a viable path to the Metaverse, Valve has to do it too. Valve's Steam is bigger than the Epic Games Store in terms of users, revenue, and playtime. It has several of the most popular, long-running multiplayer games. The company also has a long history of innovation in content and monetization. Valve has also spent years developing and releasing VR hardware that generates billions of dollars in profits each year and is privately owned by a group of technologists focused on open-source technology that defies closed ecosystems. Meanwhile, Valve's engine, Source, has seen limited adoption and, unlike Epic, doesn't appear to have integrated its own abilities and assets to create a "Metaverse."

other

While it's tempting to think of a leading company or experience leading the Metaverse, the process itself will really be guided by an explosion of different "things" coming together. To that end, there are countless startups trying to build early, primitive "Metaverse"-style experiences. For example, Ubiquity6 hopes to leverage millions of individual content creators to "map" the real world and then build smartphone/AR/VR accessible digital experiences on those maps. The similarly named Singularity6 is building a virtual world that, unlike Fortnite, intends to evolve into a "Metaverse" from day one. Others, such as Genvid (a portfolio company), are building SDKs that allow anyone to build server-rendered experiences where millions of people can participate together using streaming with lightweight client-side interactivity. While this lacks several key attributes of today's Metaverse, such as a personal "presence," it begins to bring together large numbers of "players" into fully shared virtual environments, which are currently rendered via the cloud or locally games can't do it.

Magic Leap seems to believe that by having a hardware layer, it can be the core driving force of the "Metaverse" ("Avalanche" author Neil Stephenson is the company's chief futurist). In fact, most tech companies seem to believe that glasses will be a key gateway to our digital future and are collectively investing billions in the space. With this in mind, Snapchat, with its large and highly engaged social graph, and developing heavily around cameras, glasses, location-based experiences, and digital avatars, will likely play a key role in the Metaverse (especially if acquired). Fortnite isn't even unique in terms of its uniqueness -- there are other online "games" that share many of the same attributes, behaviors, and potential. For example, both Minecraft and Roblox have over 100 million monthly users and are also able to mix and match IPs. What's more, these "games" rely more on user-generated content and user-led experiences - in Minecraft there are no game goals such as "winning" or "survival", "games" are about creating. In 2019, Roblox said it would pay more than $100 million to its global game developers. The company also noted that it doesn't even pay those developers directly -- unlike the iOS App Store -- they charge directly from users. In the fall of 2019, Roblox launched the "Developer Marketplace" where developers can monetize not only their games, but also assets, plugins, vehicles, 3D models, terrains and other items they make for those games profit in. Meanwhile, many other games, such as Grand Theft Auto V, have added socially oriented modes where users can create, operate, or engage in activities purely for "hanging out."

co-construction

Ultimately, there is still too much uncertainty about who will lead the Metaverse, or how to get us there. In fact, the "Metaverse" is likely to be made up of different platforms, institutions and technologies working together, embracing interoperability. Today's Internet is the product of a relatively chaotic process in which the open (mostly academic) Internet has grown in parallel with closed (mostly consumer-facing) services that often wish to "rebuild" ) or "reset" open standards and protocols.

To that end, it's hard to imagine any major tech company being absent from the Metaverse. Not only will the Metaverse make the pie bigger, but big transformations tend to be disrupted when it is imperceptible, incumbents are slow to respond, or cash is tight. But none of that is true today (which doesn't mean market share won't change, or that companies like Epic won't jump to the forefront).

1v1v1v1v1v1...

The visions, technologies, and capabilities I described above still feel like science fiction—even if they materialize, it will be decades away. At the same time, many parts have started to come together. So the question is who, why and for what purpose created the Metaverse. So it's helpful to go back to the (long) process of creating the World Wide Web. Imagine if, instead of being designed by nonprofits and technologists, it was designed to sell ads or collect user data for profit.

That's why it's so important for Tim Sweeney to lead the early efforts to build the Metaverse -- and he worries about who will take its place. Tim Sweeney said in May 2017, “When we build these platforms for the Metaverse, if these platforms are locked and controlled by proprietary companies, they will Private data and our interactions with others have far greater power than any platform ever before." Two months later, he said more explicitly: "Google and Facebook have so much power, as President Eisenhower said about the military-industrial complex, that they pose a serious threat to our democracy." As "Epic's Founder and controlling shareholder", Tim Sweeney "will never allow Epic" to share user data with any other company.... We will not share, sell or share it like many other companies Advertise through intermediaries.”

There may not be 100 players in the process of building the Metaverse, but it's still a battle royale.