Is the fivefold roll a brain-dead policy? My top six questions

Source of data for this article : Resolution of the 3766th meeting of the Executive Yuan (the planning direction for the revitalization of five-fold coupons ), There is something to say , and evaluation of the implementation effectiveness of the revitalization of triple coupons

When Jennifer was sorting out the information of the fivefold volume this time (understood the fivefold volume at one time! Stop watching and listening, it won't hurt (updated on 9/16) ), a bunch of black question marks popped up in her heart. I am an economic idiot. Before jumping to conclusions, I will first find information from the official documents of the government to answer my own confusion. At the same time, I also hope that everyone will give different opinions. Don't give the policy of death in 15 words like the title I wrote.

Before getting into the question, let's take a look at the timetable for this fivefold volume:

After all, it's your tax money and mine, don't disregard your own rights.

And look at the official document, the purpose of this policy:

1. Why no cash?

This is the first question in my heart after sorting out the five-fold volume: won't discovering gold save the cost of making the five-fold volume ( about 2 billion )? There is no need to work so hard, just transfer the money directly to my account! Regardless of whether it is necessary to print more money, the cost and possible impact of printing money, because I don't understand it at all, but looking back at the purpose of the five-fold roll, it is to promote domestic demand and stimulate consumption. If the government discovers gold, it will greatly Some people should be like me, save it first. In other words, if you don’t ask for a few days to use it up, it’s difficult to ensure that everyone has it out .

2. How does the government ensure that the fivefold rolls are not spent on three meals?

Even if the government restricts my five-fold rolls to be used up by April next year, I still have half a year to use the five thousand yuan for three meals, two hundred a day, and use them up in less than 30 days. Promote consumption? This is the purpose of the " inducing overweight " in the briefing. Everyone now has 5,000 yuan in their hands, and they can also use them in dry noodle shops. Suppose there are two dry noodle shops downstairs with similar tastes. One can deliver more side dishes with five times the roll, and the other has no extra code. Everyone will definitely choose the one that has side dishes. The dry noodle shop that delivers side dishes finds that its turnover has increased significantly, and then launches a 200 yuan single or double package (five times the smallest denomination), at this time, the unit price may change from 80 yuan to 100 or 200 yuan, when the number of customers and the price per customer increase, even if the profit is slightly reduced, you can still make a wave. Therefore, the five-fold rolls are not afraid of being used in three meals, because they are afraid that everyone will not add vegetables, and the store will not increase the number, which will stimulate consumption.

3. Why push digital binding? A lot of small shops can't make payment in action?

Last year, the target for digital binding of triple volume was 36% , but the actual binding was 7.7%, and the achievement rate was only about 20%.

Aside from being a little embarrassed, why is the government pushing for digital binding? The most direct is to reduce the cost of printing paper rolls, and the cost of personnel in administrative activities. In addition, it was also mentioned in the briefing to avoid crowds.

This time, the government has worked hard on the incentives for digital binding. The first 4 million people can directly get 500 yuan of good food coupons , and banks are also encouraged to give discounts to digital binding. Even, unlike triple coupons, this time the electricity It can also be used by merchants. Using digital binding in e-commerce consumption must be better than paper rolls. but!

Shouldn't this be a KPI-oriented policy?

4 million divided by about 20% of Taiwan's population, which is the target of this digital binding . This makes me feel that the Ministry of Economic Affairs is very much like a smart student handing in homework, "If I can meet the standard, the opposition party will have nothing to say?" Faced with the food roll, I am also curious about how to use it, because the purpose of digital binding is to In order to prevent the epidemic, the food rolls should not be physical rolls. However, there are not so many vendors who use credit cards or mobile payments. How should the good food rolls be distributed and used? It's still a mystery.

Why do small shops not like digital payment?

The government has actually promoted digital payment for many years, but why the penetration rate has not been able to rise, this is the answer I asked:

• Getting rake by foodpanda, ubereats is already a lot of work, why should I pay rake for action?
• Many small vendors are one-person shops, and customers can even ask customers to put their own change in the change tray for small cash receipts, and use mobile payment.
• It would have been possible to evade sales tax, using actions to pay income would have been seen.
• There are too many QR codes, and they are posted all over the store. The reconciliation has to be separated and remitted to different accounts, which is troublesome enough. (Taiwan pay intends to integrate this point)

After reading it, do you think it is reasonable for the small shop to pay without action?

4. How to use county plus code?

This question is a bit like a good food roll. I am Kaohsiung’s daughter-in-law. Take the Kaohsiung volume as an example. For detailed information, you can refer to the Facebook page of the Economic Development Bureau of Kaohsiung City Government . To put it simply, 5,000 of the five-fold volume is used in Kaohsiung, of which 2,500 is used for meals and travel. To 1000 yuan Kaohsiung paper plus volume. It is very important that I type three times, on paper, on paper, on paper. Hmm, interesting enough. (Of course, from the perspective of epidemic prevention, the Kaohsiung roll has a threshold for receiving it, and the probability of clustering should be extremely low.)

5. Why two of the eight plus-size rolls need to have Taiwan pay before they can be used?

According to some second-hand information ( LinePay, Taiwan Pay, which one of the top three channel battles in Jiekou will be the only Pay for consumers?, 2021 mobile payment credit card recommendation, consumption payment up to 10% Reward | Jiekou Pay LINE Pay Pi Wallet Taiwan Pay ), it can probably be deduced that the breadth of Taiwan Pay is not bad. I raise my hand first. As a user of Jiekou and LinePay, I originally thought that there was no one and no place to use Taiwan Pay, although the above-mentioned second-hand data did not have very direct data. ” instead of the actual amount used or the number of stores, but I also checked the official website of Taiwan Pay , and there are many stores that can be used in Yonghe, where I often play. At present, it seems that the obvious disadvantage of Taiwan pay is that there are not so many preferential options. (But it doesn't mean the discount is bad)

Excluding the problem of using Taiwan pay, why are the eight plus-size coupons unique to Taiwan pay? The description of the original volume reads: Those who are digitally bound with a financial card in cooperation with Taiwan Pay will use it first on 11/5; In fact, I think it's full of laughs. Could it be that many people questioned that the official system's Taiwan pay usage rate is too low, and they have to hit the KPI again?

6. Why can e-commerce also be used?

According to the written report on the effectiveness evaluation of the implementation of the triple coupons last year, the triple coupons are the main force to revitalize the industry,

• Catering: "From September to November last year, the turnover of the catering industry has reached a new high for the same month in the past three consecutive months. Among them, the restaurant industry in October was due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day holiday dinners and travel opportunities, and the anniversary of department stores brought Inbound customer effect, an annual increase of 6.3%. ”
• Retail: "Retail turnover from August to November last year has reached a new high for the same month in the past four months in a row. The turnover in August also recorded the largest increase since March 2010. The turnover in the fourth quarter was 1 trillion 600 yuan. 100 million yuan, an annual increase of 2.4% .”

As for wholesale, the report did not mention it. (However, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the wholesale industry grew by 8.5% annually , as shown in the figure below.)

The report also mentioned that the number of unpaid leave "has decreased from more than 30,000 in June last year (2020) to 5 to 6,000 in December last year", while "the number of employed persons in December last year was 11.52 million. 1,000, which is also higher than the 11.472 million in June last year.” The job market has also improved . Regardless of whether there are external factors, for example, the overseas epidemic situation is also slowing down, the economic situation will naturally ease slightly. This time, the five-fold volume can also be used in e-commerce, whether it will revitalize the wholesale, retail, and catering that should have flowed into it. , what about the e-commerce companies whose performance increased during the epidemic? So that the employment situation is not good? Of course, at the press conference in early September, the Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that e-commerce is applicable under certain conditions . Is this a big adventure for digitally binding KPIs, or a response plan to avoid the resurgence of the epidemic, or is it accurate What about ways to increase retail, catering, and wholesale turnover? Seems to have to wait until next year to conclude.

at last,

The goal of the five-fold volume in the briefing is shown in the figure below. It can be said to be an extension of the three-fold volume. However, this year, because Taiwan has clearly felt the impact of the epidemic, I believe that the implementation of the five-fold volume will be more difficult than the triple volume. It will be reserved for next year. Let's see if the benefits are as expected. Before the end, I just want to simply complain that no matter the triple volume or the fifth volume, the user experience is really poor, 100% departmentalism, please go and rework the policy UX.