"Reprinted" Interview with Liu Zhongjing 043 @ 20190626 On the relationship between China and Central Asia

Moderator: This week I want to talk to you about the relationship between China and Central Asia. There are three news items this week, all of which may be slightly related to the timetable for the next eight major arrivals in Middle-earth, so please analyze it a little bit. First, the chief Taliban representative Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar met in Beijing with the rest of his entourage. You sarcastically said that they came to learn from Comrade Fang Zhimin. We all know that the Taliban is likely a by-product of the CIA's anti-Soviet hegemony campaign based in Pakistan in the 1980s, which seems to be called Operation Cyclone. Does this have a dark connection with China's plan to contain the Soviet Union after China betrayed the Soviet Union in 1979, joined the US camp, and established diplomatic relations between China and the United States? What is the real relationship between the Communist Party and the Taliban?

Liu Zhongjing: We should pay attention to the fact that the Taliban itself is one thing, and the tribal organizations that the Taliban rely on are another. The various tribes of Afghanistan can be said to be the embodiment of spontaneous order, they have always lived in the prehistoric state of life, organized by the principles of blood ties and vengeance. Higher religions and groups come and go above them, but are not tenable in these places without assimilating their customary laws.

Strictly speaking there is no Afghanistan, Afghanistan is an emirate created by the British to cut off Russia's road to India. Afghanistan in history is actually a combination of Outer India and Outer Iran, part of which belongs to Outer India and part of which belongs to Outer Iran. The quintessence of Afghanistan for most of its history, for example in the Iranian epics, Rostam and the like, is counted as a part of Sistan and Iran, often participating in the politics of Iran itself struggle. As for India, India has always regarded Kandahar as the northern gate of India and an important frontier of India. The city of Kabul is a small feudal feudal state, which originally had no advantages over Kandahar, but the family of Abdur Rahman Khan, died in 1901, as a small The feudal prince, who tucked it between Iran and Russia, was in line with Britain's foreign policy towards India, so he was made king. His vassal state received a large amount of funding from British India, so that it could conquer a large number of hill tribes and small feudal princes, so he drew this border of Afghanistan that did not exist on the map.

Of course, such an Afghan state is a non-existent state, and it is destined to never become a nation-state. According to the principle of feudalism, such a system can be maintained only if a uneven feudal relationship develops between the king and the feudal lords and tribal chiefs who are protected by the king and receive the king's allowance; if it must be transformed into a nation-state, it is destined to collapse. With the king there, feudal relations are more flexible and things are easier to manage; without the king, it is impossible for anyone to attempt to maintain the framework of a nation-state. Therefore, the Kabul government is destined to be a Li Yuanhong government. The value of its existence is to borrow a foreign loan in the name of a government to maintain the urban construction of Kabul. For the sake of fear of Dongjiaominxiang, various warlords from other places often did not dare to enter the city of Beijing. But outside the city of Beijing, it must be a worthless thing.

The Taliban is actually a combination of two factors. One is the Pashtuns and the tribal lords of the southwest. They have been at odds with the Uzbeks and Tajiks in the north since ancient times. You're up, I'm going down. After the fall of Afghanistan, the Uzbeks and Tajiks were so powerful in Kabul that they were already dissatisfied. But they are spontaneous orders, lords and chiefs, and their nature is not suitable for organizing high-level political organizations, and they could not find a suitable party to stand for them. This is when the Taliban emerged, so they were able to absorb considerable support from tribal and feudal organizations. But these tribes and feudal groups had nothing to do with Islamism or any international power, and their way of life was always the Sicilian and Corsican family vendetta that Balzac and other novelists portrayed. For them, the vendetta between the so-and-so family and the so-and-so family two hundred years ago will be passed down by their descendants - the future Italian mafia or someone else.

As for what happened in Rome and Paris, that's none of my business. If they had seen Bonaparte proclaimed emperor in Paris, they would have to study which faction the Bonaparte family had sided with in Corsica. Then send a representative to Paris to find him, and the suggestion is that since you have become emperor, do you want to clean up your enemies severely. And again, Emperor Napoleon thought, I'm French, and these things are my shit. So the Corsican family said angrily, you are a traitor, and we will not recognize you as a Corsican in the future. And if anyone dared to report the news to Napoleon, his reaction would be, damn, am I still trying to be the head of a Corsican family? Now I want to go to Rome to be crowned and to inherit the inheritance of the Holy Roman Emperor.

Such is the relationship between Afghan chiefs and high-level politics. There have been many times in history when Afghan chiefs have grown up and marched into Iran and India, just as Napoleon became the emperor of Paris and made his son king of Rome. But then the conflict between the empire and the emirate will inevitably manifest, and the chief in his homeland will treat him as an outsider like the one in Corsica, and he will certainly think of Tabriz and Derry The crown is more worthy of protection than the poor chieftain of Afghanistan. So the Afghan chiefs must be against the empires of Trabiz and Delhi, just as the Haidu and Mongol chiefs must be against the descendants of Kublai Khan. You can't say that their ancestors were all Mongolians. This is a contradiction between the two systems, which is irreconcilable, so they will eventually split. The Taliban's march to Kabul actually caused a similar phenomenon. Had it stayed a little longer in Kabul, these chiefs in the south would have quickly turned against the Taliban or whoever established the regime in Kabul. But when the Taliban are out of power, they support them as the Highland chiefs support the Stuarts.

We should note that after the Stuart family came to London from Edinburgh, they often suppressed these Highland chiefdoms, but after the Prince of Orange came to London and drove them away, the Highland chieftains were in favor of the restoration of the Stuart Dynasty. The flag, to raise troops against the alliance of the British and the Scottish Lowlanders, is the same. The Irish supported James II for the same reason. James II suppressed them in London, but when the Prince of Orange came to power in London, the Irish chiefs decided that, in any case, it was better to have an exiled king at the head than just us chiefs. And James II can speak in France and can get a lot of French aid for us. So they brought James to Ireland to be king. But if James really fights back to London, I am afraid that the Irish will turn against him, and this contradiction is irreconcilable.

The logic behind these chiefs supporting the Taliban is the same. The Taliban have a certain international character, they are Islamists, not local feudal lords. They were able to mobilize the funds and high-level talents of the Islamic world to serve these chiefs. And these chiefs, they are local snakes. They can provide a certain amount of manpower and force, and at the same time can provide a lot of local support. Without these local support, Qianglong could not hold back the local snakes. Thus, a temporary alliance of the kind that has often occurred in the history of the hill tribes' conquest of the Fira Empire was formed between the two sides. This temporary alliance was effective when the empire was not yet established. Then the Pakistani and American factors come in, which makes no difference for hill tribes. They want the Taliban to bring foreign advanced weapons and gold. It makes no difference to them whether these advanced weapons and gold came from the Arabs or the Americans. We can't assume that they are theoretically Muslims to care about that. In fact, all they care about is who is from our family and who is not from our family. They think that the Arabs, Russians and others in Afghanistan are all outsiders, but if it's good for us, these outsiders are acceptable for the time being. So on top of this level, aid from Pakistan and the United States was added. China may also have given some cheap weapons, but these were still insignificant in China in the 1980s.

Of course, after the Taliban entered Kabul, the Arabs in Afghanistan, like bin Laden's series, created Al Qaeda. Then the Americans smashed the Taliban to pieces. Of course, Americans do not know the political ecology of Afghanistan itself. In terms of the principles of those chiefs in Afghanistan, what is the difference between the foreign aid that Ahmad Shah Massoud and other Tajik chiefs took and those he took? The Arabs in Afghanistan cannot take root in the local tribes, regardless of what they preach about Islam. It makes no difference that the Americans are also unrooted in southern Afghanistan. The Taliban lost almost all the big cities when they were initially crushed, but it actually worked to its advantage. After losing those big cities, it lost its qualification to become the ruler of the empire and had to take refuge in those tribes and feudal organizations again. Because it relies on spontaneous order, it is impossible to eradicate the roots. A closed tribe always needs money and weapons from the field. And as long as the Taliban have this channel, they will be able to win at least some tribes.

For example, the only way you want to expel the Arabs from Afghanistan is if you allocate a North West Governor's Allowance yourself, as British India and the Russian Empire once did, or as Queen Anne did to the Scottish Like tribal chiefs, ask London financiers to give them a stipend. The amount of this allowance is not large. From the Scottish Highlands point of view, £2,000 is a windfall; financiers in London think £2,000 is far too much to rent a house in London's financial district. So the two sides can hit it off in this regard. Meanwhile, in order to find a way out for their prowess, Her Majesty's government established the Scots Legion. In this way, the Scots will not go to France to serve as soldiers, like the Irish, and turn to England. And the Scottish regiment went to America and India to fight is very arrogant. This way, both parties can be happy. British India's policy towards the Gurkhas and Afghans was actually exactly the same.

This is the only possible workaround. Do you want to move to the mountains to live? Obviously you don't want to. And the spontaneous order that the hill tribe itself grew out of is something you can't flatten out. You can only buy it, finance it, buy its feudal allegiance. And because their structure is feudal, their allegiance is very reliable, which means their loyalty is reliable. And all they got was what the city people thought was a small sum of money. This is the only solution to the Afghan problem, which is to conform to its own feudal structure and not forcibly create a nation-state. Forcibly creating a nation-state, then for the Pashtun tribes, this is equivalent to letting the Tajiks and Uzbeks ride on their heads, which is absolutely unacceptable. No matter how much assistance the international community gives to such a government, no one will support such a government except the unrooted intellectuals, and those who support it will lose their strength locally.

Therefore, in this way, the Taliban have regained their foothold at the grassroots level. Afghanistan at this time was, of course, a state of broken warlords. The powers headed by the United States are at odds with themselves. It is difficult for the British and Russians to maintain a unified position in Beijing for long. The common stance in the year of Gengzi only lasted for a few months, and at any other time it was mutually demolished. Likewise, the common position of the major powers in Kabul only lasted for a short time after the September 11 Incident. In this way, the Li Yuanhong government as their agent (we can ignore the names of previous Afghan presidents for the time being, we call them Li Yuanhong unification, because they can't be anyone else, no matter what name their party gives them , that makes no difference), it is the most legitimate regime in the liberal sense, elected by Congress or by voters. But such elections are meaningless, and local warlords and tribes simply don't care about such elections. Its only source of income is international aid, and decrees never leave Kabul.

Of course, the alliance of the international community will soon disintegrate, so such a government will be even more difficult to get along. It cannot even find a stable emperor, and the provinces will definitely fall under the substantial control of warlords and tribes. If the foreign powers have interests in the local area, they will sign an agreement with Zhang Zuolin like Russia and Japan, and will not go to Li Yuanhong, who has no executive power to sign any agreement at all. This is the lower powers. The advanced powers simply do not come. The interests of Manchuria are very important to Russia and Japan, and Russia and Japan are low-level powers, so they went directly to sign a treaty with Zhang Zuolin. On a higher level, like the United Kingdom and the United States, they think that even Tianjin and Shanghai are not a problem, and the money in Shanghai or even Hong Kong is not a problem at all compared with Singapore and Calcutta. The cost is so high and the profit is so low, leave it to the Japanese and Russians, and the British are simply not willing to go. If the British are willing to maintain a representative office in Beijing, it is purely to maintain the face of the empire, and they do not expect this embassy to do anything, it is purely for the sake of maintaining face. Advanced powers are not willing to buy even the power of warlords. The spontaneous order underneath must then be that a loaf of bread thrown away by the upper class is a windfall for the backcountry, and any funding they can find is important to them.

Under such circumstances, the so-called terrorist forces are bound to infiltrate Afghanistan. As long as they can bring more advanced weapons and gold dollars from more developed regions than Afghanistan, there will always be some tribes willing to accept them. But they are actually very unlikely to suppress these tribes. They depended on these tribes as their guides, and the cadres and party groups they brought were not strong enough, far from the level of the Comintern in the Soviet area, so it was too late to reorganize and format the local society. So such alliances are inherently unstable, easy to build and easy to break. It's easy to break it, hard to keep it strong.

At this time, of course, Uyghur exiles began to establish bases in these places, and they naturally always found their supporters. And the only way you can get rid of these supporters is to do something like the Jin Dynasty against Genghis Khan and Wang Khan. Jiagu Qingchen mainly fought the Tatars during their northern expedition. The reason is very simple, because the Tatars are closest to the border of the Jin Kingdom, and they are stationed near the Great Wall. Those tribes in Outer Mongolia, which were farther from the border of the Jin kingdom, fought with the Tatars but not with the Jin kingdom, because they could not reach the border of the Jin kingdom. Therefore, it is a natural thing to go far and close. Genghis Khan was originally a small prince, relying on the powerful king Khan to fight against the powerful Tatars. From the perspective of Jin Guo, they do not know who Genghis Khan and Wang Khan are, and the Tatars are their enemies. So they aided Wang Khan and Genghis Khan. They regarded Genghis Khan as a minor prince attached to Wang Khan, and gave the king's title and a large amount of gold and silk to Wang Khan. Then after the alliance of the two sides and the Jin Kingdom defeated the Tatars, Genghis Khan felt that the treatment Wang Khan gave him was unfair relative to his contribution, so he turned against Wang Khan and defeated Wang Khan. Then Jin Guocai discovered that Genghis Khan was much more terrifying than the Tatars, but it was too late.

China's policy towards the Taliban is actually the policy of the Jin Dynasty towards Genghis Khan and Wang Khan.

The Muslim policy implemented by China is actually a mixture of Leninist policy and Fira policy. The restraint policy is a typical Fira Empire policy. The weak and populous Fira Empire has no way to deal with the powerful tribes along the border. It can only buy some tribes to attack other tribes, and the tribes bought by it are likely to attack you like Genghis Khan when they become stronger. The way to buy it is by giving money to weapons that will likely fatten it up and make it out of control. How to not get out of control is an extremely difficult thing. In the short term, you need a wise politician like Duke Cao, but in the long run you are doomed to fail, because your basic game is not good, the army of the empire cannot fight, but the tribal soldiers can. Duke Cao can use the Wuwan people's famous horses in the world to recruit these people to supplement his strength; but in the generation of the Sima family, these Xiongnu and Xianbei people who were bought by them will attack them in turn, and you will not be able to control them. . This is inevitable.

The CCP’s approach to various barbarian groups is both. What should be done according to Leninism? Clean it up. Kill those religious leaders and tribal chiefs as comrade Stalin did with the Chechens. When the Russian Empire fought the Caucasus War for hundreds of years, why couldn't it be finished? Of course it was because the Russian Empire itself had a remnant of feudalism. If a Chechen chief like Hadji Murad surrendered to him, as depicted in Tolstoy's novel, he would have made the chief an official. Most of the troops he sent were also Cossack troops with a certain degree of feudal autonomy, and the military leaders of the Cossack troops were chosen by himself. Although the Cossack leaders wanted to be loyal to the tsar, they were like the feudal towns of Yuyang, and they were all in the army. He is not a warrior who is brave in battle and has won the heart of the army, and the Cossack Legion will not choose him as the commander. They chose Zhang San as the leader or Li Si as the leader, as long as the leader did not join forces with the Swedes and Poles to fight Russia, the Tsar could tolerate it. The Tsar relied on such Cossack military chiefs to fight mountain chiefs and Muslim groups. There are also conflicts between mountain chiefs and Islamic organizations. For example, Haji Murat is a mountain chief and belongs to the feudal series, while Imam Shamil is an Islamist series. Haji Murat brought Russian soldiers to fight the Islamists. With this feudal governance method, of course, it cannot be thorough. The local residents knew that there were chiefs and sheikhs, but they did not know that there were tsars. Their loyalty to the tsar depends on whether their chieftains and sheikhs rebel.

The Leninists will surround the village with their tanks, kill the chiefs and chiefs, and capture the rest of the common people who have received the education of chiefs and chiefs and exile them to Kazakhstan. In this way, we can buy 20 years of peace. But this approach doesn't work for everyone. For example, for Orthodox Christians who have been submissive for a long time, after killing their archbishops, their Cadets and their village leaders, it seems to work quite well. Many Russian Orthodox Christians believed that Stalin was a new tsar and transferred their allegiance to the tsar to Stalin. But for groups with a strong feudal character, such as the Chechens, this trick doesn't work. When they went to Central Asia, they still refused to accept it. When Khrushchev rehabilitated Zhaoxue and put an end to Stalinism, after they returned to the Caucasus, they continued to fight again.

The Communist Party's policy towards the Western Regions is like this. First, in the Mao era, we relied on the military support of the Soviets. Originally, Mao Zedong could not enter Xinjiang at all. It was Stalin who asked him to change the population structure of Xinjiang, increase the original immigrant population from less than one tenth to more than 30 percent, and use Soviet planes to transport troops to him so that he could become a To the KMT can not do. Of course, he also naturally killed a large number of chiefs and leaders, who I call condensed cores and local tyrants. Then, in the era of Deng Xiaoping, to be precise, during the Cultural Revolution, it could no longer be held.

Therefore, the US policy toward China's peaceful evolution has actually made a mistake in supporting factors. The liberal intellectuals and the so-called pseudo-middle class they foster are destined to betray them and pursue a policy of Nazismizing the Communist Party. The forces that can really fight for them are actually the forces like the Gurkhas discovered by the British in India, including the tribes along the border, including the wild churches, underworld and other forces that grow savagely underground. Only these forces are spontaneous order. If it is not a spontaneous order, no matter how much money you give, it will not matter.

Today's Huanghan and Xi Jinping-era Chinese scolds Hu Yaobang for being a mess, believing that he screwed things up. But we have to pay attention that in 1978, if Hu Yaobang hadn't done so much then, there would have been no Xinjiang in 1982. In 1982, the CCP was utterly poor, using weapons that were very unusable in the Soviet Union in the 1950s and after decades of degradation. The tribes along the border are backed by the Soviet Union, and China is uniting with the United States to fight the Soviet Union. If you don't bribe them, if they bring a batch of weapons from the Soviet Union from the 1960s and 1970s, you will fall apart immediately. And don't expect the Americans to guard Xinjiang on your behalf. The Americans' policy towards Turkey is to keep the Bosphorus open and give up all the areas east of Ankara to the Soviet Union. If the Soviet Union invaded Turkey, eastern Turkey was what the Americans intended to give up to the Soviet Union from the very beginning. The U.S. policy toward China must also be the same. It is almost the same as defending the coastal ports, and the interior must be given up to the Soviet Union. In this case, whether you want to buy off the original tribal chief and the original leader of the local elite, you cannot hold it.

Of course, if bought, this policy would no longer be a Leninist policy, but a policy of the Fira Empire. Of course, this policy, as pointed out by the vast number of Huang Han, the vast number of Sinicists, and the vast number of Marxist fundamentalists, is to raise the carbuncle's legacy. You have fattened the descendants of the local reactionary class, and they will definitely drive you out when their power is full. But you bought time, you bought twenty years of time. Without it, you would have collapsed in 1982; with it, you would have done business with Americans for 20 years, wouldn't you have money again? Then you have another chance to fight again. So this buying policy is not a unilateral need, but the product of a game.

What is the Western Development and Military Modernization? That is recolonization, the restoration of colonial settlements that had been withered and depopulated before the 1970s and 1980s. The Great Western Development means that the various people sent by Leninism in the past can no longer hold it. Now we need to take advantage of the Great Western Development, imitating the Western Development of the United States, and send some Wenzhou businessmen to Almaty to bring a new group. Immigrate to fill the gap again. Military modernization, replacing the military equipment of the Stalin era in the past 1950s with the new Beiyang Army built with American money, so that we can hold it again? Of course, such a policy, for the clans and priests who have regained their wings, is (in the words of the United States to Taiwan) a unilateral change of the status quo, and conflict is about to break out immediately.

In fact, there are only two ways to solve the problem: the first way is my way, I don't want it; the second way is the Leninist way. And according to the bureaucratic empire's method, I've already paid a lot of fucking money, right? It seems that the more money I pay, the worse things get. It's really not good. Now the reform and opening up cadres are in this situation. Reform and opening up is essentially a temporary measure. If you go one step further, you will simply evolve peacefully, not the Communist Party; if you take one step back, you will have to re-Leninize. Either forward or backward, rolling rocks down the mountain, and stopping in the middle is unstoppable. And the reform and opening up cadres want to make a fortune in silence, they ask to stop in the middle. But Trump didn't wait for it to stop in the middle, Xi Jinping didn't wait for it to stop in the middle, everyone didn't wait for it to stop in the middle, so they were bound to finish. Don't look at how they looked like they were arrogant in the past, that was taking advantage of the situation, that was a pig in the wind, and they were bound to finish. The situation in Xinjiang must be the same.

Of course, retreating has consequences, which is the same as failing to recognize Taiwan's independence. If Taiwan can become independent, can Guangdong become independent? If Xinjiang can retreat, can Yunnan retreat? There's no end to this, no. Once Napoleon had withdrawn from Moscow, the organization of the army could not be maintained. Hitler forbid them to retreat and ordered them to die in the trenches. It turned out that Hitler was much wiser than Napoleon, even though he was much worse than Napoleon. As soon as Napoleon's army retreated, it was broken. His army was a European motley army, and the armies of the Prussians, the German states, and the Italian states followed him. As soon as they saw that Napoleon was dying, they became independent, and Napoleon's empire fell within a year. And Hitler bit the bullet and said that whoever retreated would be shot, and he had to endure it for three years, longer than Napoleon.

Therefore, this question is a Macbeth proposition, and the way back is as bloody as the way back. Either Macbeth should not usurp the throne at all. Since you have usurped the throne, you cannot step down. You have to bite the bullet and die. Otherwise, you will not die if you step down? A hardtop is also dead, so you might as well have a hardtop. That's why Shakespeare's famous line is called, the way back is just as bloody. You've already crossed that boundary, you just have to do it to the end. It is relatively better to do it in the end, and the support time can be longer, so you can only do it to the end. Who is it that is unlucky? Of course, it is the unfortunate cadres of reform and opening up, and all the money is paid by them, right? You're going to be fighting a social war, and of course expenses are going to go up dramatically. At the same time, you no longer have the original cadre group, and the Fela civil servants under you are very unusable. As soon as I heard that I was going to fight, I ran faster than one. The result of this is an extreme contradiction: the Fella bureaucracy is responsible for the implementation of Leninist policies, and they are bound to go out of their way.

For example, if you look at my post "Farewell, Syria", there are two links on it, and I found that both links were blocked. The first link is easy to handle, and it is an article I wrote myself. What's relevant there is that I foresee in 2015 that 5% of the elite population will flee. For example, if I am a doctor, I do the same thing in Chengdu, and I do the same thing in Urumqi, why the fuck should I stay in Urumqi and let the police check my cell phone all day long? Doctors in Hong Kong can go to Canada right away, but my qualifications are not recognized by the British, so I cannot go to Canada. But the same degree is recognized by both Urumqi and Chengdu. Why don't I go to Chengdu? So I have to run. If 5% of the elites run away, the local society will be finished.

The second link is about how to attract talents with preferential policies. Its basic content is that the population loses 25%, and the higher the education level, the more the loss. In fact, this 25% population loss was far more exaggerated than I had foreseen. What does this mean? It means that the news I have seen has been screened, and most of the news has been rejected by the great news censorship agency of the Communist Party. The real situation is many times worse than what I saw. Therefore, the lost population is 25%, and the whole society has disintegrated. In a society with a population loss of 25%, it is impossible to even inherit the lineage. Of the existing pensioners and welfare recipients, they are the only ones who don't go, sit and wait to die with money. Of course, this money is still allocated by the central government. In fact, if Muslims kill them directly, the central finance will solve the burden.

The problem now is that the three pay is constantly being levied, and the real war is constantly escalating, so you must consider how to cut off the enemy's source of troops and pay. An important source of soldiers was the subway, where Muslims fled across the Vietnamese border to Malaysia and then to Turkey and Syria. How can you keep them from going? Of course you need to have concentration camps. Concentration camps are not democratic and fresh, nor are Uyghur overseas propagandists claiming that they are purely vexatious genocide and racial abuse. Its significance is very similar to the strategic villages created by the British in Malaya in the 1950s and Americans in South Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s. What is the purpose of the strategic village? Cut off the conduits for underground Communist Party cadres to infiltrate the rural Mekong Delta.

The strength of both sides is constantly growing. In the short term, it depends on which side gets the most hard assets - money and guns. In the long run, it depends on who is the spontaneous order. In Inner Asia it is clear that Muslims are a spontaneous order. And where did the money and guns that the Leninists depended on come from? It relies on the exploitation of migrant workers in Sichuan and Hunan, who are already dying. It slaughtered and imprisoned the local Muslims and filled it with the population of the Corps and the population of Shaanxi and Gansu, which is proletarianization. For example, Uyghur intellectuals in New York and Washington will say that the Communist Party is changing the demographics of Xinjiang. I dare say they are promoting their own interests. The situation facing the Communist Party is that they desperately find that they cannot change the demographics of Xinjiang. Stalin and Mao Zedong can change, for example, Stalin changed the population structure of Kazakh, and Mao Zedong changed the population structure of Xinjiang. What do they rely on? Stalin had a highly productive Orthodox population left over from Tsarist Russia, Mao Zedong had a Confucian society and a highly productive agricultural population left by Zeng Guofan. But Andropov can't be Stalin. His fertility rate is already extremely low, and Xi Jinping's population fertility rate is also extremely low.

What is happening in Xinjiang? 25% of the upper-class population, those with a little ability, who could survive elsewhere, lost 25%. What did it immigrate to? Corps population.

In this case, it delays its demise by proletarianizing the local population. What is proletarianization? It was the children of the landlord and bourgeoisie who ran away, while the poor and lower-middle peasants stayed. At the same time, the population of the Corps and the population from Shaanxi and Gansu are definitely poor and lower-middle peasants, and this poor and lower-middle peasants are also poor and lower-middle peasants who have lost their Confucian beliefs.

These poor and lower-middle peasants that Xi Jinping moved here are communist poor and lower-middle peasants. Things like changing behavior patterns take time. The first generation of poor and lower-middle peasants, although their landlords, squires, and private school teachers were all killed or beaten by the Communist Party, still subconsciously felt that they would be unreliable if they had fewer sons. Then the Communist Party proved to them through 30 years of education that you have actually seen it with your own eyes, whoever follows the Communist Party will prosper, and whoever opposes the Communist Party will be unlucky, other factors are completely unimportant, Confucian values or other values are completely unimportant .

Now it is facing this situation. It recruited for Xinjiang, and although the mainland was full of dead college students who couldn't find jobs, none of them went.

We come back to the question of Inner Asia. There must be many groups of Muslims in Central Asia that meet this standard, because it is extremely difficult for you to kill them. An ordinary grassroots cadre who has no soldiers behind his back, if you want to kill them or rectify them, they will really kill your whole family. And after killing your whole family, the protection and pension the Communist Party gave you was extremely inadequate. For you, you are likely to face such a situation: after you were killed by a Muslim, your wife petitioned, and then you were dictatorship by the stability maintenance force. On the contrary, if you turn a blind eye to the local Muslims, you can get a lot of benefits, and you can also make a good political achievement. After you get promoted, you take the whole family out of this place, and the idiots will continue to stay in this place. . It is in your best interest to appease, and then run away quickly. Therefore, the Muslim power must grow bigger. If it grows to a certain extent, when Western journalists also intervene, and it can only be suppressed by means of war, the current situation will appear.

It has not lost yet, because Wu Yue and Nan Yue still have enough money for the time being, but this is a countdown issue. And its opponent is certainly not very strong. Contrary to the beliefs of many Felicites, Muslim societies in the nineteenth century were considered at least far more Felician than Christian societies. Only the barbarians among the Muslims who have just converted to Islam, such as the Turks, can still do it. The current situation is entirely caused by the Western welfare state, caused by the loss of vitality of the Western society itself, and not because the Muslim society is particularly strong. But those hill tribes in Afghanistan, no problem, must be the product of a spontaneous order. The army of several thousand that has been built up in the middle of the mountains of Afghanistan is impossible for you to destroy. If their power sometimes becomes stronger and the warlord alliance marches into Kabul, you can knock them out; but when they retreat into the mountains, you cannot knock them out, no matter how much you give the Taliban.

What does the CCP's acquisition of the Taliban indicate? You have to look at this from behind. Behind the scenes, your own army can't do it. It expects that after buying the Taliban, the Taliban will do it for it. But the Taliban will not do it for it, the Taliban's interest lies in expanding their feudal alliance and marching into Kabul. After they took your money, they must have done a symbolic task of completing your task, so that you will not appear in the newspaper. And to cut grass and root, they have no motivation at all. Besides, are you still willing to give money after the weeds are cut down? This is inevitable. The same is true for giving money to Syria. And all of these things are aimed at dealing with the very few infiltrators who operate in the mountainous frontier west of Bachu, with only a few hundred people in small numbers, and only a few thousand in large numbers. Hundreds to thousands of infiltrators have made you mobilize hundreds of thousands of troops, mobilized half of the Beiyang Army recruits, and completely paralyzed the entire society with millions of people. the worse.

Last year I heard news that two military bases would be built on the Tajik border, but this year I heard news that more than 30 military bases will be established. A line similar to the Ningjin Line of Defense in the late Ming Dynasty was drawn on the map, extending westward from the Wakhan Corridor to the eastern section of the Afghanistan-Tajik border. The western section is still exposed, which is obviously not acceptable, it must continue to extend westward. And blocking the Tajik border is obviously not enough, because Uzbekistan and the Fergana Basin have been the heart of Central Asia since ancient times. The so-called nine surnames of Zhaowu in the Tang Dynasty were located in Hezhongdi, and the bloody horses of Dawan Khan in the era of Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty were also in Hezhongdi. The imperial capitals of Samarkand and Bukhara were all located in Hezhongdi. The stronghold of Muslim extremist groups in Central Asia is in Fergana. Uzbekistan has no border with China, Kyrgyzstan has, but the populations of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyz are intertwined. Uzbek groups could easily cross the Kyrgyz border, bypass the Tajik border, and enter Aksu further north from the south bank of the Turks. To the north of the Turks River is Ili. Crossing the Turks River is a very deadly border, because the Turks River corresponds to the Tianshan Ice Osaka. After crossing the Turks River, all the fortresses south of the Tianshan Mountains were scrapped. And the long border from Manas River to Turpan is completely impossible to fortify. That is to say, once this border is crossed, the existing line of defense cannot be held for long.

You can either retreat directly to Jiayuguan, or send troops quickly to seek a decisive battle for the main force. Such an absurd war with hundreds of thousands of people fighting hundreds of people as it is now cannot be sustained for a long time. You must seek the main decisive battle and annihilate the main force of the enemy army. Then you have to go to Syria or Afghanistan to find the main force of the enemy army and destroy it. This war is sure to be internationalized. The hope is that after cutting off the escape route for the locals, and then all over the world, for example, in Turkey to buy Erdogan, suppress their exile groups, and then wipe out their main forces in Syria and Afghanistan, after this war to end. But this task is as unsolvable as the Taiwan issue. You have to pay attention, things are getting worse. In the Jiang Zemin era, this was a local problem, and it was very limited in spending money. Although the local tribal chief or leader is a little more powerful than the poor and lower-middle peasants, whether you suppress him or bribe him, you will not spend much money. You want to send money to Muslim groups in Malay, to send money to Muslim groups in Turkey, to launch a propaganda war in the United States against the Uyghur Association in the United States, will this cost be higher or lower? The buying standards of American agents are much higher than those of Turkey and Malaysia. You are going to carry out a world war, and this expenditure is going to increase exponentially. At the same time, fighting a war in Syria and Afghanistan is certainly far more expensive than a local security war.

Those victories mean more battles and bigger costs and wars that never end, and you're backed by the financial resources that Trump is cutting. And then those troops you send to Xinjiang and those 50 cents that you send to the White Zone -- whether it's Washington or Istanbul, will soon face the situation that Chiang Kai-shek's government had in 1943.

Of course, this set of Leninist policies by Xi Jinping, carried out by the Fela bureaucracy, which is similar to the Ming Dynasty scholar-bureaucrat but even inferior Social ecology and social resources, to fight a war in which the battlefield is endlessly expanding and never finished. What remains in this war is the most cost-effective group in the evolutionary game, not the most politically correct group according to Western liberal democratic ideas. Some of this group will come from feudal groups and tribal groups that already exist in the mountains of Afghanistan, rivers, or the Caucasus, but not all of them, because the broken state of local society will make foreign international terrorists such as Comintern cadres, for example. Islamist forces or Islamic forces occupy a considerable place.

The collapse will be quick. One second before the collapse, Wu Sangui had no problem at all in Shanhaiguan. In the first twenty-four hours before Wu Sangui entered the customs of the Ming Dynasty, the territory was exactly the same as that of the Hongwu Emperor and the Yongle Emperor. In the next second, Emperor Chongzhen was hanged, and the entire country was filled with rogues like Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong.

At this time, there will be a dramatic role change, and it will become eight saviors like the Manchus. He won't kill everyone. As long as you are willing to accept his rule, he will let some obedient people live. For Zhang Xianzhong's population, who were sure to die, they would, like those gentry in Shandong at that time, send their representatives to beg the Manchus to hurry south.

So in fact, the population of those places close to the eight major cities is still relatively good. After they come, there may be some people who will be hanged up like Najibullah to have their testicles cut off as evil atheists, or they will be smashed like Gaddafi or something, but they won't kill everyone. , they will always leave a group of people behind. Those who are really in the most core hinterland of Zhumadian and cannot be reached by anyone will really die, and the way to die must be extremely tragic. After the Leninistization of the population in the occupied areas, they were more cruel than those who were more or less Confucian and believed in Buddhism. Even between close relatives, for example, it is very common in these working proletarian families to kill one's own aunt or someone else at any time, and throw his body to feed the pigs. I dare say that the cases solved by the Public Security Bureau are only a very small part of the real cases, and they are usually used to it.

Kyrgyzstan's population, under the age of 15 accounts for one third of the country's population. While the population structure of Afghanistan is younger than that of Kyrgyz, the population structure of border tribes in Pakistan is similar to Afghanistan. Their explosive population growth would easily make up for the population losses from the war, and would come in droves. And the Leninist population left by the Soviet Union is already dying, and the former will surely engulf the latter. The latter may have been killed quickly in the middle of the war, which was kind to them. And the surplus population generated by the tribal population and the religious group population is as destructive as the Manchurians entering the customs when facing the Fira population with extremely poor resistance, let alone the pure vegetable people. It depends on them. Where would you like to call. If you hold Tang Zhen's mentality of those Confucians in the Qing Dynasty - by the way, Tang Zhen is from Sichuan, he must have witnessed the overall extinction of the Sichuan lowland population in the late Ming Dynasty, so he said that the Manchus came to save the people in Fire and water. They can hit wherever they want, and they can conquer as much as they want.

The only limit is how long their counterpart, the doomed Leninist machine and the Fela bureaucratic machine, can be supported by the existing human, material and financial resources. This is closely related to the disintegration of social organization. I can only count that it must have supported until the last moment like Emperor Chongzhen, and will maintain its facade like Sahaf until the last moment. But how many real resources it has, I don't know. I guess most people in the Communist Party don’t know either, because the materials the Communists report to the Central Committee are different from the materials they leave behind, and they themselves have their own small treasury. How many real resources there are, I dare say Xi Jinping does not know. Like Emperor Chongzhen, Xi Jinping does not know how many resources he can mobilize. I'm just reasonably predicting that based on my experience this past time, not only will he have far less resources than he's blowing out, but far less than I'd predicted. You see, I used to predict a population loss of 5%, and it turned out to be a loss of 25%. This inaccuracy is very large, and I am already the most rude among all the intellectuals from the occupied area. My reasonable estimate for it now is seven years. Part of making this estimate is to replace reality with hope, because it is impossible for me to complete the work of my own design in a short period of time. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if it didn't survive that time and some other major event happened.

For example, the establishment of 30 to 50 military bases in Tajikistan has far exceeded my expectations. I think this is the worst thing to do in the military. What is the worst thing to do in the military? It is to put elite troops into the battlefield in batches and in small quantities. Even military enthusiasts know what is the stunt of winning a war? Like Napoleon, use all the elite troops at the same time and place as possible. To spread out and invest in elite troops is to be at a disadvantage at all points, so that your elite troops are slowly depleted and unsustainable at every point. If you have elite troops, you should find the weakest link of the enemy and gather all the elite troops to fight it. If you can't do this, you should assemble all the elite troops, let the old, weak, sick and disabled of the garbage troops act as human shields to delay the enemy's attack, and quickly assemble the elite troops that can be maintained, with the most you can maintain. Fast speed, like Zuo Liangyu when he went south from Wuchang, he can run as fast as he can, and run as far as he can.

This, by the way, Mao Zedong was able to do it, but two people failed to do it, one was Emperor Chongzhen and the other was Chiang Kai-shek, both for political reasons. For political reasons, Emperor Chongzhen could not let people say that he was the same as the emperor of the Song Dynasty. He was most afraid that others would say that he was Song Gaozong. In fact, if he became Emperor Gaozong of Song and gave up the land in Manchuria, his life would be much better. As a result, he had to continuously transfer the remaining elite troops to various points, and each point was not completely beaten. For example, when Li Zicheng was the most troubled, he dispatched Guan Ning to go to Shaanxi and Henan to fight wars. Just after fighting a little, something happened on the border of Manchuria, and he transferred the army back again. As a result, Li Zicheng did not finish the battle, and revived, and the battle in Manchuria was not won, and he was at a disadvantage on any battlefield.

If he simply made peace with the Manchus and beat Li Zicheng wholeheartedly, maybe he would wipe out all Li Zicheng. Or simply make Li Zicheng the King of Jin or King of Qin, as Li Zicheng asked later in Shanxi, and give him a few provinces, and use all resources to Guanning. Although it is unlikely to win, the defensive situation is at least slightly better. . Of course, the best way is for him to be like Song Gaozong. Song Gaozong pulled the last capable army of the Song Dynasty, the so-called Western Army, the army that fought against the Western Xia border, Han Shizhong's army, withdrew from the Bianjing front line and retreated to Yangzhou like lightning, and suppressed it in Yangzhou. The local local rebellion maintained the court of Lin'an, and then ceded all the north. Emperor Chongzhen's best strategy is to let the old, the weak, the sick and the sick to guard Manchuria, to guard Shaanxi, to guard the Guanning Iron Cavalry, the last capable army, to retreat to Nanjing like lightning along the Grand Canal, relying on Wu Yue's taxation guard Yangtze River line. That's his best strategy, but for political reasons, he can't.

Stalin and Mao Zedong concentrated resources more thoroughly than Chiang Kai-shek, but they at least knew how to concentrate their use. Both Mao Zedong and Stalin gathered all their resources and used them at several key points. Elsewhere, he has no hesitation and ruthlessness in letting you go and die. And Xi Jinping's political approach is not much different from that of Emperor Chongzhen and Chiang Kai-shek. He collects resources, uses power equally on all fronts, and relies on the bubble blown by his predecessors to insist that he cannot lose on all fronts. As a result, he cannot win where he could have concentrated his forces on one or two fronts. . If I were him, I would have made Taiwan independent without hesitation, completely abandoned the hugely expensive navy, completely abandoned Xinjiang and Tibet, and concentrated all resources, preferably even the north of the Yangtze River. . If it really doesn't work, after giving up Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan and Hong Kong, with the remaining plate, at least the social collapse can be delayed. But he doesn't, he keeps adding troops to every place where there is only expense but no profit. The situation in Xinjiang is just like in Manchuria now. It is a place where there is only expenditure but no income, and you have to keep investing in troops, investing in even bigger troops. More power has been invested in Taiwan than the Soviet Union has invested in the entire Far East, and it is destined to bring no revenue and a deadly war.

All this relies on the two economic bases of Wuyue and Nanyue, as well as the surplus labor population in places such as Sichuan and Hunan. Even without any diplomatic disputes, the system would collapse as this surplus labor was exhausted and capital flowed out. And the countermeasures he took were actually hard against hard. Just like Emperor Chongzhen fought a war of resistance across the board when Song Gaozong would definitely cede territory and seek peace, and Chiang Kai-shek fought a war of resistance across the board when the Beiyang warlords would definitely cede territory and seek peace, he engaged in social mobilization. The society he mobilized was not the Confucian society of Emperor Chongzhen and Chiang Kai-shek with a certain fertility rate and growth ability, but a post-communist ruined society. So, he has already jumped off the cliff, which is a route that is bound to end.

Link: https://medium.com/@ihchentw/%E5%8A%89%E4%BB%B2%E6%95%AC%E8%A8%AA%E8%AB%87-043-20190626-%E8 %AB%96%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E8%88%87%E4%B8%AD%E4%BA%9E%E7%9A%84%E9%97%9C%E4%BF %82-bb75c9446bb7