[ACY Rare Securities] Reverse repurchase heavy-volume USD short-term shocks may trigger a signal that metal prices have peaked

The recent price trend of commodities is closely related to the dollar, including gold, copper, aluminum, crude oil, and cryptocurrencies, all of which were accompanied by a rebound in the dollar last Friday, recovering some of the previous gains. The dollar's rise is "unexpected and reasonable". The U.S. dollar index closed last week for four consecutive yin, the largest weekly decline in two months, and there is technical oversold support. At the same time, the news that the Fed's reverse repurchase usage exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in history has provided a rebound for the dollar, digesting some of the bear pressure caused by last week's interest rate decision. ACY Securities believes that the current round of the dollar's rise is more of a technical correction, the news of reverse repurchase is a short-term impact, and the interest rate decision will still provide trend momentum. Due to the ups and downs of the policy environment, recent transactions need to distinguish between intraday, short-term and short-term trading opportunities.

The short-term rebound of the dollar triggered a number of base metals peaking signals. From the daily chart of metal aluminum, affected by the weakening of the dollar last week, aluminum prices rose rapidly and easily broke through the previous high resistance. However, with the rebound of the dollar on Friday, the K line closed. A doji with a long upper shadow is released, signaling a peak. Although the opening slightly gapped higher today, it still showed bear pressure. In terms of indicators, the RSI relative strength indicator formed a small divergence, while the Williams indicator entered the overbought zone with an acute-angle reversal and released a short signal. On the whole, the trading strategy is mainly based on short-selling on rallies, which is a left-side trading opportunity, and the profit-loss ratio can be expanded accordingly. It is necessary to pay attention to the manufacturing PMI data released by many countries in Europe and the United States tonight. Since the last round of data exceeded expectations, once the data performance tonight is not good, it will be a bad signal for fundamentals. When the Williams indicator crosses the overbought line, it is a good time to enter the market. The upper resistance of the current price mainly depends on the highest point of last week at 2640, while the lower support is the common structure of the trend line near 2470 and the relay pattern of rising, flat and rising.

Judging from the daily chart of Australia and the United States, compared with the US dollar index, it can be clearly found that the short side of Australia and the United States still dominates. Although the price was a little hesitant after the inflation announcement last week, the K-line was again strongly resisted at 0.74, maintaining the overall bearish situation. Interestingly, since the beginning of the year, Australia and the United States have shown a staged decline, and there have been many technical forms of "breaking down and stepping back". The horizontal lines appeared at 0.8, 0.78, 0.76 and 0.74 respectively, and the price rounded position provided key resistance. If the observation period is reduced, it can be found that 0.77, 0.75 and 0.73 also have horizontal lines, so the recent technical trader needs to pay attention to the branch resistance effect of the two lines of 0.73 and 0.74. On the whole, the short-term trading strategy is mainly based on the shock of the box structure, and there are opportunities to do long in the day, but the short-term is still dominated by short-term rallies. Pay special attention to the RBA interest rate decision released tomorrow afternoon, which will provide strong short-term momentum for Australia and the United States. If the decision remains loose, then there is a trading opportunity for Australia and the United States to break through the 0.73 position. The timing of long and short entry can be matched with the golden fork or dead fork signal of the stochastic indicator (fluctuating market, the central area is also effective).

ACY Securities

Focus on data today

16:00 Euro zone manufacturing PMI in July

21:45 US July Markit Manufacturing PMI

22:00 Monthly rate of US construction spending in June

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