Gray Lecture-Taiwan Real Estate 07: Fewer birthrates will not affect housing prices

The pedant is not bluffing you, the title is absolutely true, you read it right, and you didn't write it wrong. In Taiwan, the low birthrate will affect the number of main houses and the number of flats. Shrinking to the main force is replaced by two houses, but in Taiwan, the declining birthrate will not cause the housing price to collapse.

The principle is very simple and pedantic, and I have said it many times. The real estate speculation element in Taiwan has joined the government as the driving force. It is not purely a supply and demand factor. When the government grants public stock banks to assist in speculation, the purpose is to let people even return to their hometowns. There is no chance, so that people can finally choose to compromise with high housing prices, which means whether you want it or not, the taxes paid by the people and the taxes generated by the children and grandchildren in the future will be extracted and hyped. This is the essence of the truth. Looking at market supply and demand will never be reasonable and never buy.

For those who don't believe it, the pedant put forward an argument for you to actually observe, visit and verify if you have time to see if what I said below is correct? If it is correct to say that the declining birthrate will bring about a decrease in demand and lead to a drop in housing prices, then suppose there is a remote village today, there are no good employment opportunities nearby, young people do not stay in their hometown to work, and they do not give birth to children to hold for the elderly. Grandson, only the elderly are left to take care of each other. To be blunt, the population of this place is one less dead.

If this remote town does not have developed tourism resources, there will be foreign tourists visiting during the holidays. I would like to ask everyone, please don’t say that this remote town has fewer children. In the past, if the declining birthrate will lead to a downward revision in housing prices, should the housing prices in this remote rural area fall or rise in the past 20 years?

As far as experts and scholars are concerned, of course it is a fall! But you all know that although Taiwan is a small island, it is obvious that the development of the east, west, north and south is uneven. There are many such remote villages, such as some XX towns close to the fault zone, and the seaside with petrochemicals and firepower. XX District and XX Township, where power plants are prone to cancer, let alone job opportunities, living in such places is like a gamble. Are these places going up or down now?

I think the answer is obvious , "Of course it's going up!" Ah, after so many years, it's not a matter of fewer people, but no more people. Why do the prices of houses in these areas continue to rise? The second paragraph of the principle says, "When politicians use national power to help hype, it's not a matter of supply and demand." So, in the future, don't think about lower birthrates when looking at houses, just consider whether you can afford the mortgage and whether your life functions are in line with yourself. That's fine, because there will be an invisible hand jumping out to help you support the plate. It's useless if this hand pours out your NT dollars. The low birthrate has nothing to do with us at all. It's so plain that we still can't understand it, and we're not pedantic. way.