"Look, they're scared! Here's our chance" - Anarchist on the Wagner mutiny, why, and what it means

The spoon has been returned to you. But it's covered in food crumbs and other people's spittle, and it can never be washed off. Would you like to use it again?

This is where Putin is now. You can negotiate with Prigozin and even eliminate him, but you can't forget the story no matter what.

The Putin regime will now no longer appear to have no choice, even to its loyal citizens, who last week believed in the war in Ukraine and the stability of Russia.

For many in Russia, the mechanics of moving from an external war "against the Western collective for Russia's survival" back to an internal one is increasingly apparent ( as we were reminded in early March ), regardless of their feelings about Ukraine and Putin What do you think of the war.

The smell of the Civil War is in the air again, almost as it was 30 years ago. An unjust foreign war, just to keep Putin and his friends in power, is fomenting an internal war that will bring the regime down.

Putin's once unified power is splitting into shards of varying sizes, like the Ice Queen's mirror, and whoever gets the big shards of the mirror will fight for control of the shards and the expansion of the territories they control. This is where the trouble lies.

The power struggles of failed states -- failed states that are unable to perform some of their functions properly -- are much like this. For example, in countries like Sudan or Nicaragua, they have lost their monopoly on violence. Russia is rapidly becoming Africanized. This is not just a metaphor. "Even if the rebellion is quickly quelled, the fact that it happened already puts the Russian market on the same level as Somalia or Sudan," wrote one financier in a passage published on June 24. Yes, the clashes between the Sudanese Quick Reaction Force and the army are the closest thing to a Prigozin mutiny.

Welcome to post-Putin Russia!

It's not the happiest nor the safest of times. But that's how dictatorships often end—a period of precarious equilibrium, when power seems to lie in the way, easier to pick up than hold on to.

The following text was published on the day of the Mutiny :

Beyond dog eat dog: On what this military coup means for revolutionaries —  

Revolutionaries must first see the situation clearly, especially the value available in the situation:

An attempted coup has put pressure on the country and distracted the rulers. Decision cycles and chains of command are clogged with pressing issues.

The core loyalties that previously governed people's behavior were split as a result of conflict within the state. Chaos and uncertainty grow in an avalanche.

Then there is the opportunity and risk model:

First, at times like these, reality becomes more malleable.

Second, of course, the stakes also get higher! The state will mobilize all its forces and react hysterically to any threat. The putschists may not realize the inherent problems of using the military against civilians.

However. If the liberal movement had any strength, it could now commit to advancing its own agenda. At least identify yourself. Maybe winning back the business isn't about winning, it's about gaining impact on the future.

Here's a warning to all rebels around the world: When the news hits us all the more reason to reflect on ourselves — why didn't we have a plan in advance for an occasion like this to make the most of it? How do we build muscle for the next period of chaos? Because this may well be just the beginning of turbulent times .

This is not the end, but the beginning. A military uprising (mutiny), even if unsuccessful, is often a precursor in history, the beginning of a whole turbulent process. The main events (revolution, coup, civil war) will unfold gradually from now on. There will be a time difference. Not 100% sure. But the probability is quite high. The most popular news image on the day of the mutiny—the "tank stuck in the gate of the circus"—may have a specific and profound meaning...  

The following was posted during the initial period of Mutiny -

"Burn, Russia of the Kremlin! It's time for the world of the Empire to burn with you!  …"

However, all of this is just hope noise for now, and the reality of a Wagnerian “March to Moscow” is more likely to turn into nothing more than a theater of regime-inspired resistance, and later into a more totalitarian militarized Putinism 2.0,” in Forced to become tougher under pressure from external and internal enemies." This would allow for the organic enforcement of martial law, the declaration of mobilization, the raising of the Iron Curtain, and the growth of square-sounding mustaches on “snow-white shirts.”

But don't give up - especially if you know that Russia's main "talent" is to puff out his chest, advertise his invincibility ("the second largest army in the world", "take Kiev in three days"...), and in his own "greatness" ’ collapsed triumphantly under the weight of .

The difference is what is required to do so: the top can't do it the old way (power crisis), and the bottom doesn't want to do it the old way (hungry for change) — so much so that they can take to the streets and take power into their own hands ( ready for organized revolutionary violence). Are there such conditions in the Russian Federation? And, if not the "revolutionary class", who could be the actors of the coup d'état? Throughout the post-Soviet world, the artificial political "lack of alternatives" has long been a convenient excuse for maintaining the status quo.

If you keep the most short-sighted observations, then arguably any commotion in Russia will benefit the Ukrainian counteroffensive and open up a little window of opportunity for everyone. Please note that this is an opportunity to attack, not an opportunity to pop champagne.

On Saturday, June 24, 2023, the world woke up to news of a mutiny in Russia.

World-renowned warlord Yevgeny Prigozin and his fascist paramilitary Wagner PMC are believed to have defected and are advancing on Moscow. There were even rumors that Putin had fled Moscow.

Anarchists across the country are scrambling to prepare a response — both civil and armed — to the collapse of the Russian state and the prospect of an all-out conflict between different factions of the ultranationalist machine. At the same time that Belarusians were speaking openly about overthrowing their own petty dictator, Ukrainian troops seized the opportunity to repel the invaders in Zaporozhye and Donbass.

But it's all over before anyone can get an idea of ​​the new situation. Many people were surprised by the results and speculated about various possibilities. For this reason , we have updated a description to explain this matter.

In the explanation, we first emphasized that it was a mutiny, not a coup, and that Prigozin probably had no intention and was basically unable to seize power. For those in doubt, we briefly explain the matter below, summarizing the mutiny and why it ended the way it did.

1. The mutiny was not aimed at seizing power or marching on the Kremlin.

Many analysts tend to adopt Max Weber's "state" concept to understand Wagner's confrontation with the Kremlin, which is not wrong in itself. As Weber stated as early as 1918, a state is "an organization that claims (and usually succeeds in) monopolizing legal physical violence within a given territory." The Russian state after February 24, 2022 will have its territory undefined from the start. As trying to maintain control of the territory has become increasingly problematic, the Russian state has increasingly outsourced its monopoly on violence to private military companies. This development does not appear to portend any danger to the Russian state if private military companies are under full state control and the state is able to cope with their functions. However, when the country failed to solve the problem of so-called "special military operations", it strengthened the autonomy of private military companies, which in turn began to spin out of control. On the other hand, violence by private military companies is beginning to gain legitimacy as it is perceived as a more effective alternative to state action. The attempt by private military companies to take over the country is therefore an inevitable consequence of this development.

Logic does. But the motive for the mutiny is not here. Prigozin's mutiny was not due to rebellion when he was strong enough to stand against the state, on the contrary, Prigozin's mutiny was out of desperation, he was kicked out of Ukraine, unable to continue to fully maintain Wagner (within a few months he It will be difficult to feed tens of thousands of horses). In such an environment, where he felt that almost the entire state apparatus was against him, Putin ignored him and openly supported his most dangerous enemy.

2. The plan here is to make a lot of noise, get Putin's attention, and bargain for him to keep working, on comfortable terms -- role status, security, and money.

3. Prigozin is unlikely to succeed directly. Because it is extremely difficult to simply transfer all the levers and buttons of governing the country from Putin to Prigokin, this is not a question of a warlord's "governance capacity". Putin's status is based on many factors that have formed over the past few decades, and it is due to these factors that many components of Putin's status and resources cannot be transferred to another person, let alone someone like Prigozin, let alone Resigned because of the mutiny.

But Prigozin successfully opened a turbulent era. As explained at the beginning of this article, Putinism has been shaken since then, and everything is possible.

4. Suppose, suppose a miracle occurs and Prigozin overthrows Putin. What will be the result? Then there will be a fork in the road. Everyone remembers the public sledgehammer executions, the brutal discipline and death cult in the Wagner PMC, the bloody raids in the Donbass - all the prerequisites are present and Prigozin will undoubtedly build a fascism even more violent than Putin . In addition, it is known that many Nazis worked in Prigozin's establishment .

5. If you know a lot about Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar, you will find that he has many similarities with Prigozin. People like Escobar and Prigozin tend to emerge in situations where official power has been weakened. During the mutiny, everyone saw the real power situation in the Russian Federation. Even if Prigozin is adequately punished for his disrespectful antics, it will be increasingly difficult for Putin to continue playing the role of "father of the nation."

6. This mutiny has weakened the iron plate of Putin's dictatorship both physically and psychologically. Even if the insurgency is defeated, it will not bring the situation back to the previous stability and firm belief in Putin. Prigozin's defeat will not even restore any tenuous level of confidence in tomorrow held by the regime's conscious and unconscious supporters. This is the "long-term effect" of the two effects we highlight. It is the most worthy place for revolutionaries to gear up.

7. We are skeptical of the description "truce". A "truce" might be more appropriate, as we have emphasized before : the Russian Federation will not stop until it reaches the borders it needs to survive — the borders of the Soviet Union. Not because Z wants to revive the Union as a political project, but because the borders of the Union are the most profitable and secure in Russian history. None of this will change as long as the nation-state remains the guiding principle.

Not only Russia, but the entire post-Soviet nightmare is caused by the state system. A truce is of course crucial and urgent, but it is only temporary until the fundamental problems are resolved.

7. All in all, again, the opportunity this brings is the only thing that matters. This is true for rebels against tyranny all over the world! Stop allowing spam that distracts you with wild guesswork to distract you from your awareness of spending your time helping others make money.

The following caption was posted on June 25:

For the new season of Black Mirror, I saw some Chinese friends commenting on the show, so have you noticed that in the fifth episode "Demon79", a book cover appeared in the play, and the heroine is reading the book " Creative visualization" was published in 1978. It's a classic psychological concept, and it also happens to be relevant to yesterday's Wagner story. It's about why so many people get the situation wrong.

The first thing to emphasize is that this is not a coup, but a mutiny . These two things are indeed a matter of steps in many cases, one causing the other, but this is not absolute, and it was not in yesterday's story.

It is precisely because it is a mutiny first that we pay attention to it. Because any coup d'état going on right now will do little to the wellbeing of the people, including elections, nor will it make things fundamentally better (once explained https://t.me/iyouport/12790 ).

In fact, the IYP, like every other anarchist, has been encouraging the possibility of mutiny since the beginning of the war and, above all, emphasizing its importance - if you've ever read our " War in Ukraine " series, you know this point; as the title of the statement of the Belarusian anarchists at the beginning of the war put it bluntly: " Soldiers! The enemy is in Minsk, not Kiev !"

The principle is obvious:

1. These soldiers weredriven from the heart of the poor working class and thrown into the fire.

2. They are required to learn to use and hold weapons.

3. They have been abused , they have endured humiliation, many are desperate just to survive.

A complete set of mutiny physical conditions.

The unity of the people is the real threat of dictators .

simply say:

The Wagner rebellion not only exposed the internal contradictions of Putinism, but also underscored once again the true path of the anti-Putin opposition: rather than waiting for another Bolotnaya to denigrate the civilian soldiers who are being stuffed into a meat grinder, it is better to start with them Do more work in our ranks -- create and accumulate conditions for marching to Moscow.

Instead of the chatter of intellectuals sitting behind computer screens, duped, robbed, thrown into a criminal meat grinder, Russian soldiers are in a position that has provided the conditions for a coup d'état, and these soldiers are not only able to discuss revolutionary actions, And being able to put it into practice, pull out the guts of lords and generals and wrap them around tank tracks.

This is the first key position of the whole thing. base position.

But as you can see, what are those media and their public opinion doing? They are speculating on the outcome. This is probably the most useless thing here.

In Russia, there were three similar mutinies a century ago: Kornilov, Muraviyov, and Mironov. There are three very different outcomes. Any of these three scenarios could have played out in yesterday's situation. But in any case, only this kind of behavior itself will not cause a coup d'état.

Therefore, it is meaningless to speculate on the results. We didn't speculate, let alone talk about the Qing emperor's side, because it wasn't.

This is the second key: since the result is meaningless, what is the meaningful part? - is process and impact .

First about the "process". We demonstrated "How Revolutionaries Read the News" yesterday, with two examples, here and here .

Not just for Russia! This is true for revolutionaries all over the world. Any change in the situation is an opportunity for revolution. All news posted on this channel are reminders of the value that can be exploited in the dynamics of the situation.

So what is the best and fullest use of it? Of course, it is to promote liberation. But how to liberate? You have to have in advance as clear a feasible picture of liberation as possible, a belief in what the world will look like after liberation - we analyzed this in why Operation Blank Paper is fundamentally different from the Iranian uprising .

So, what we posted at the beginning of yesterday's event was a reminder to revolutionaries: " Beyond Dogs Eat Dogs "

“When the news is overwhelming, it’s all the more reason for us to reflect on ourselves – why didn’t we have a plan in advance for an occasion like this to make the most of it? How do we build muscle for the next period of chaos? Because it could very well just be turmoil The beginning of the era."

The second is about "impact".

The impact is divided into two parts, a short-term and a long-term. In the short term, political turmoil will affect production (see the section " What Anti-Terrorism Operations Means " for some) and may cause insufficient supply to the front line, which can form a window of opportunity for counterattacks - counterattacks for all rebels, and Not just for Ukraine ; but long-term, it creates a huge amount of uncertainty, and this is probably just the beginning, the beginning of a turbulent explosion of uncertainty, the most powerful force that can shake a society , which will create more revolutionary windows of opportunity .

But please note that the opportunities brought about by uncertainty have two levels, and one of the extremes was one of the important reasons that brought Putin to power .

This month coincides with the anniversary of Budenovsk, an important story during the 1995 Chechen war, which took place from June 14 to 19 of that year. Sadly, like all history lessons, its lessons were not heeded (even in a crisis situation like this year no one mentions the anniversary, it's completely drowned out in the news). The great uncertainty that exploded in 1995, the sense of despair and powerlessness, ultimately brought about Putinism.

There must never be a next time.

Go back to the beginning of this post. The reason why "creative imagination" and observation bias appear is that people's "observation" substitutes positions and emotions, which are very common. But "creative imagination" can never be all, and can never replace reality—the reality here must be a more adequate and solid preparation for the stimulation and mobilization of possible revolutionary forces.

Put down the melons in your hands, participate in reality, and become a part of history.

To this end, the statement of the anarchist organization is translated below.

Earlier on June 24, Vladimir Putin addressed Russian society about the Wagner Private Military Company's ongoing insurgency, saying Yevgeny Prigozin's insurgency was "pushing the country into anarchy." and cannibalism".

This is a misuse of words. Cannibalism has long been the rule under Putin. Torturing and assassinating dissidents is cannibalism; invading Ukraine is cannibalism. Wagner and the Russian military have long been involved in cannibalism. And anarchy is the exact opposite of cannibalism: it is the state in which people are no longer competing to rule each other . Only totalitarianism always leads to bloody conflicts of power.

Looking at the situation in Russia, one cannot help but think of the civil war that broke out earlier this year between the Sudanese army and the Quick Reaction Force . In an effort to suppress a powerful social liberation movement, the government equips quick reaction force mercenaries only to end up battling them for control of the country .

Such widespread violence is the inevitable end result of militarization . As governments and corporations increasingly rely on brute force to suppress social unrest, devoting more and more resources to police and private security, they are themselves setting the stage for increasingly catastrophic civil wars.

Civil wars that erupt today in Sudan and Russia may well erupt elsewhere tomorrow if we do not succeed in changing the course of our societies globally.

Here we have hastily translated three statements by Russian anarchist groups. All of these groups are underground, that's for sure. The first was in Siberia; the second was an anarchist-communist combat organization already "famous" for its excellent guerrilla tactics; the third was the editorial office of Avtonom, arguably the most important extant in Russia Anarchist Publishing Platform.

Irkutsk Anarchist Movement

In the current circumstances surrounding the Wagner mutiny, there is no side to choose but our own.

That's true for the most part — neither the Putin regime nor those vying for power with it will act in the interests of all of Russia's people .

At this moment, we can prepare for every possible outcome. The possibility of the People's Self-Defense Forces cannot be ruled out . In the event of civil war in the country, the main task of the People's Self-Defense Forces may be to organize the security of the people, as well as the logistical network to provide food and basic daily necessities.

No one should be completely immune to mercenary formations and the Russian army, and one of the main weapons at our disposal is solidarity and mutual assistance.

At the same time, we should think about what to do if the current structure of state power collapses in the city of Irkutsk or in the entire Irkutsk region?

We advocate the organization of open people's committees, assemblies and forums on all the most important issues of public life, including economics, provision, nature conservation, human rights, self-defense, education and urban services. In all of these structures, we would like to see independent commissions for women and Aboriginal people.

In the meantime, we are monitoring the development of the situation. Putin has already said on TV that he fears the destruction of the state system and the emergence of "anarchy"! As anarchists, we can say that the dictator is right to be afraid of anarchy: after all, it means that his power and the idea of ​​a " Russian world " will cease to exist, and instead society will begin to follow the rules of self-government, decentralization and operate on the principles of confederation.

We believe that anarchy is still quite a ways off in this country. But in the present circumstances, we are not powerless; we can prepare for any eventuality and watch carefully to see if there will be a moment that will benefit all the freedom-hungry, Putin regime-weary people here. We want everyone who thinks about this to think about what they would do in this situation and form a team with other people they can trust and rely on.

This is the bare minimum and most basic thing that can be done right now.

The following text was published on May 5 :

The politician's game is one of surfing the tide of public energy. In the case of Russia, there are four crests for politicians to keep afloat in the current big wave:

1. Opportunism - working with the "Putin Majority" to secure a Russian presidential election and generally help "hold the ground". The stakes are relatively low, but the competition is huge, and the creamiest seats are already taken. The monopoly of this market is of course United Russia.

2. The Opposition - Works with disaffected citizens to market services to authorities that will "keep these dissidents within the tolerance of the system." Similar to a zookeeper's job . The risk is to play the "I represent the people" game (see the case of Navalny or Grudinin). The market is divided between the Communist Party and the Liberal Democratic Party.

3. Extreme Patriotism - This is a new cusp, it's just gaining momentum, and of course it seems very attractive to anti-elite politicians who really want to improve their status. However, the energy of this wave is so high that the chances of drowning are much higher than those of climbing. Its appeal comes from the feeling of a "window of opportunity" suddenly opening. Its players are also famous - from war criminals Igor Strelkov and Vladimir Kvachkov, to rich jerks Konstantin Malofeev and Kolmu Jinna, and then to the oligarch Prigozhin.

4. Social – A less visible but equally noteworthy wave that reflects appeals to political representation of various social issues. A space that includes rights of all kinds: consumer, labor, ecology, religion, national culture, and so on. It is almost impossible for this wave to form big politics, but it is acceptable as a way to break into the competitive arena, and politicians just borrow it to brush their own popularity . The center-right liberal "New Man" party is on this cusp, along with other rights groups, trade unions and even the diaspora.

That's it. Only these 4 waves. Each one has been played to pieces. Fortunately, the establishment has no hope. This is the truth that many people are beginning to understand. If you ask if there is something to watch in the general election, there is still a point, but don't expect electoral politics to bring about any substantive changes.

anarchist-communist fighting organization

We have indeed entered a new phase of this historical turning point. It has long been clear that those at the top of the power structure will soon start cannibalizing each other; it is only a matter of time.

Now, the main task of anarchist and liberation movements in Russia and abroad is to consolidate existing forces, acquire what is needed, analyze the timing, establish communication channels that have fallen apart, and prepare for action.

We're not kidding ourselves: this moment may take some time. It took nine months from the February Revolution (during which the generals took part in the overthrow of the Tsar) to the October Revolution. From the Kornilov rebellion to the October Revolution, two months.

But one thing is clear. First, the moment of direct armed confrontation is closer than ever. Second, neither the Putin regime nor Prigozin are our friends. In this fight between the two ogres, the anarchists should stand aside - let them bleed each other as much as they can. That way, they won't be able to disrupt people's lives in the future.

But this waiting time should work to our advantage. And all the while, being ready every moment, increasing your readiness to act, but also analyzing the situation every moment, being ready to go into action and putting everything behind you, even if you're not prepared enough. Because what's worse than rushing to start early is oversleeping by the time you can steer the story in the right direction.

Additionally, we would like to add some comments on the topic of calls now to raid military registration and enlistment offices and other government buildings.

We strongly disagree with such calls. Now, the enemy is preparing to repel the attack - not from guerrillas, but from armed mutinies. Attacking these facilities now means wasting your own resources and effectively attacking enemy strongholds with your bare hands.

Partisans must strike where the empire is weak, not where the empire's armor lies. Strike where the enemy is not holding . So now, it is possible to attack objects far from the city. The enemy is gathering troops together for defense? This means that they have exposed distant borders and passages. Attack gas and oil pipelines, attack railroad tracks leading to military installations (but far from those installations), attack power lines and water mains that power police and military bases. But don't attack the military base itself, because the enemy is there waiting for you.

Or, if the stakes are too great - spend this time preparing for an armed uprising.

Now, a lively and combative guerrilla who can participate in future confrontations is a hundred times more important than a guerrilla who throws improvised ammunition at the police and is shot dead by overstressed police.

Also, don't forget the "counter-terrorist action" system. Even if you decide not to attack the police, but to attack the power lines 5 kilometers away, the risk of being caught on the road increases many times under the CTO system. Evaluate rationally and don't take unnecessary risks.

Avtonom / autonomous action

Now, at the time of this statement, we still cannot fully predict the developments surrounding the "Wagner Rebellion" in a relatively long-term perspective. But we can certainly expect two seemingly opposite trends: first, increased repression of ordinary citizens, and not just state security forces; problems of their own making.

Prigozin, of course, is no better than Putin: now some fascists are fighting other fascists . Any despotic power will eventually lead to bloody conflicts.

In this context, the need for self-organization, forging and strengthening grassroots social ties, and mutual aid will spread. People will create new initiatives, new movements. The task of anarchists is to do everything possible to help create and participate in grassroots structures, create new associations and enhance interaction between existing ones.

We have already written that there is no "our side" in the conflict between the "Wagnerites" and the "official" state apparatus. In the ongoing quarrel, all are pursuing only their own interests and defending only themselves. For all others, it's best not to risk yourself in someone else's struggle, and if possible, stay away from the point of collision.

But if we want to create an alternative to these two monsters, then we must learn to come together to solve our problems, support the fight to end war and repression, protect ourselves from violence, and stand up for our interests and rights. Only then can we participate in building a new society to replace the bankrupt regime and the gangs of thugs it has fostered.

We are with the comrades in Irkutsk who wrote:

Putin has already said on TV that he fears the destruction of the state system and the emergence of "anarchy"! As anarchists, we can say that the dictator is right to be afraid of anarchy: after all, it means that his power and the idea of ​​a "Russian world" will cease to exist, and instead society will begin to follow the rules of self-government, decentralization and operate on the principles of confederation.

Where state control and repression of society will diminish, anarchists should take advantage of the open opportunities to spread anarchist ideas in words and deeds. Now, news of riots in prison colonies and pre-trial detention centers is out . We need to push for the release of political prisoners and other victims of authoritarian power.

No matter how the rebellion now unfolding ends, new life must grow from below—from the demands of broad sections of society. For this to be possible, we all need autonomous and self-organizing structures. Unite.

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