Reflecting on the situation in Russia and Ukraine｜Five perspectives and two strengths
Eight years after the war cloud pervaded, with Russia's announcement of the launch of a "special military operation" on February 24, 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict officially broke out. Since the development of the war, Kyiv has been surrounded by Russian troops, and Uruguay is in a stalemate. Russia has proposed ceasefire conditions on March 7, including Ukraine's immediate cessation of military operations, recognition of the sovereignty of Crimea belonging to Russia, and recognition of the two republics of Uruguay and Eastern Ukraine. Independence, amending the constitution to ensure Ukraine's neutrality, etc. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shown signs of relenting, but he is still reluctant to make a clear statement. Looking at the current three-way interaction between China, the United States and Russia, China and Russia are friendly, China and the United States are playing games, and the United States and Russia are freezing. A sense of movement.
In response to this international change, the "Republic of China Society for International Relations" held a current affairs symposium on "Russia-Ukraine Situation - Reflection and Prospect" on March 10, chaired by Lu Yezhong, president of the society and professor of the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University, and invited to Zhongxing University International Yang Sanyi, a professor at the Institute of Political Science, Yang Peishan, an associate professor at the Department of Border Police, Central Police University, Li Dazhong, an associate professor at the Institute of International Affairs and Strategy, Tamkang University, and Zhang Dengji, a professor at the Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University, discussed the changes in the international landscape affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and Relevant implications for both sides of the strait. This is the first in a series of three reports.
Yang Sanyi pointed out that the interpretation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be observed from five perspectives: the distant cause of the conflict, Vladimir Putin's demands, the transformation of Europe, the evolution of the war situation, and the specter of the Cold War.
The first is the long-term cause of the conflict. Yang Sanyi believes that 2014 is the key to the reason why the situation in Russia and Ukraine has reached where it is today. In that year, incidents such as the Color Revolution, the return of Crimea to Russia, and the armed independence of East Ukraine occurred successively. Although Ukraine signed the Minsk Protocol twice in 2014 and 2015, it intends to coordinate with Russia to solve the problem of Ukraine. The issue of East Asia, the regulation of bilateral ceasefires, the exchange of prisoners of war, and the autonomy of the two parts of Uruguay, have not been truly implemented. The reason is that the essence of the "Minsk Agreement" is more focused on promoting a ceasefire, rather than a political arrangement. Although the agreement promised to grant a high degree of autonomy to Ukrainian and eastern parts of the country, it was not accepted by the Ukrainian public and could not be implemented; The understanding of "high degree of autonomy" is also different, which led to the mutual control and tearing of the agreement between the two parties. In the past 8 years, there have been continuous conflicts of various sizes here. Before the outbreak of the war, the Wudong Fire had killed more than 10,000 people.
The second is Putin's request. Yang Sanyi pointed out that the Reuters report on March 7 revealed that Russia offered four conditions for a ceasefire. In fact, they can be divided into two categories. The first category includes demilitarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine. , Russia intends to reorganize the internal political situation in Ukraine, eliminate extreme anti-Russian populism and far-right militia organizations, and eliminate potential threats that may cause harm to Russia in the future, including the Ukrainian biological laboratory disclosed by the Russian military this time. This is also the case; The second category is to request Ukraine to amend the constitution to neutralize and recognize that Crimea belongs to the independent republics of Russia and Eastern Ukraine. In fact, it is closely related to Russia's idea of creating a safe buffer zone.
The third is the impact on Europe. Yang Sanyi believes that this conflict has promoted the further integration of Central and Eastern European countries, including supporting Ukraine in political stance and accepting Ukrainian refugees in practical actions; The rejection of Ukrainians is evident in the cold and warm attitudes. Germany and France have clearly changed their positions. Germany actively aided Ukraine in this conflict, while France frequently intervened. Moldova, Georgia and other countries believed that the historical opportunity had come and actively expressed their desire to join the EU.
The fourth is the evolution of the war situation. According to Yang Sanyi's analysis, the four parts north of Kyiv, northeastern Ukraine, the two republics of eastern Ukraine, and the coastline are currently key hot areas. According to media information, the current war situation is stalemate, and the longer it drags on, the worse it will be for Russia. After all, the strength of economic sanctions will gradually take effect, which may lead Russia to return to the miserable state of the "shock therapy" period, which will evoke older Russia. people's memories. In addition, this conflict also tested the effectiveness of Ukraine’s military reform. Since the Crimea crisis in 2014, Ukraine’s defense budget has risen from $1.9 billion to $4.9 billion, and it has conducted many military exercises and intelligence sharing with NATO. This war can be described as the acceptance of the 8-year army plan.
The fifth is the specter of the Cold War. Yang Sanyi pointed out that although the Cold War era has ended, the specter of the Cold War is still circling. Starting from the first Chechen war in 1993, the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, the Crimea crisis in 2014 and the independence of Eastern Ukraine, and the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, all are the fermentation of the Soviet Union's disintegration. The "disintegration of the empire" will inevitably lead to the "unceasing prudence and chaos" of the former territories. This problem will be resolved, and even if the Russian-Ukrainian war ends, the conflict will continue to spread.
And Gao Peishan reminded the audience to pay attention to two major forces: US-EU cooperation and the US-UK, France-Germany leadership meeting.
The first force is the cooperation between the United States and Europe. Gao Peishan said that the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to the EU this time and the joint press conference held with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen symbolized the unity of the US and the EU on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Economic sanctions have also spilled over from G7 countries to other regions and organizations. In the United Nations General Assembly held on March 2, as many as 141 countries supported the condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, symbolizing a high degree of international consensus on the incident.
Gao Peishan also pointed out that the European countries' support for Ukraine and the acceptance of refugees have never been seen before. When there was a wave of Arab refugees, southern European countries were the first outposts, and there was a fierce sentiment of rejection of refugees, which led to the rise of far-right politicians and political parties; Belarus transported Middle East refugees to the Polish border in 2021, incurring strong Polish military and police forces. This time, Poland is very active in accepting Ukrainian refugees, and its attitude has changed significantly. As of today, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused as many as 2 million refugees to flee Ukraine. The EU has also launched the "Temporary Protection Directive" for the first time, creating protection centers in Poland, Slovakia and other places, and coordinating the creation of humanitarian corridors. The field contributes a lot.
However, Gao Peishan believes that in the field of economic sanctions, the EU cannot be drastic. In the EU's special foreign ministers' meeting, all countries mentioned the need to expand economic sanctions against Russia. Although the relevant measures have led to the depreciation of the ruble, some financial institutions have predicted that Russia may return to the era of shock therapy and will not be able to repay its foreign debts on time. Countries are generally worried about energy supply issues, and the EU is particularly dependent on Russian oil and gas, so when Joe Biden said he would ban Russian oil and gas imports, the EU did not keep up.
The second force emphasized by Gao Peishan is the meeting of the leaders of the four major powers of the United States, Britain, France and Germany, which hides the political calculations of various countries on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Gao Peishan pointed out that for the United Kingdom, its strategic focus is on hitting the Russian economy, and the ranks from financial institutions such as banks to Russian oligarchs have continued to rise. Many Russian oligarchs have been living in the UK for years because of the UK's low tax rates. For France, it mainly wants to score diplomatically, so it can be seen that Emmanuel Macron is very active in mediating this time; in Germany, in addition to military aid to Ukraine, the German government has also announced that it will build two LNG Receiving station, and is expected to amend the renewable energy law to get rid of dependence on Russia. The United States hopes to maintain its own influence from two aspects of geography and value, so it also frequently speaks and provides assistance in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Although the goals of the four parties are different, they can be linked with each other under related interests.
The original text was published on 2022/3/10 " Multidimensional News "
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