「投資」是透過認知所做出的行為決策，通過對事物深入了解，才能掌握正確的抉擇方向。

How to view the bulls and bears❓ Today's downturn in the cryptocurrency market丨Cryptalk Crypto Talk ep.3

Apr 14, 2022

First of all, what we need to understand is that "technical indicators" themselves are the product of "information lagging", because their information sources are only three sources, "price", "volume" and "time", no matter what type The indicators are designed to adjust parameters from these three points.

Secondly, the "essence" of "price changes" is a "expression of the psychology of the masses". The more people who are willing to buy, the more people will rise, and the more people who want to sell, the more people will fall. The so-called price support and pressure points are just The price position that most people are relatively sensitive to. For example, integer levels such as 30,000, 40,000, 50,000, etc. "look" more like "marks" to people, so it is often easy for people to break through or fall below. It is believed that a symbolic trend emerges.

Although the well-known investment advisors use the above information to interpret the market, it often makes us feel a sense of hindsight, but it does not mean that they are useless!

Because this market is "not completely efficient", there are different levels of "information gaps" between people, and everyone gets information at different speeds, resulting in an exponential spread of information. Start with a small group of people to grasp → Slowly become the news of the alleys → and finally spread to the streets, so once the trend appears, the performance of the price chart will be different. To put it bluntly, it is the extreme of the "herd effect" (especially in the case of no price limit Cryptocurrency market), while “indicators” and “technical analysis” are “tools” that materialize the above scenarios and make it easier for us to make judgments.

Since as a tool, if you don’t understand its principle and use, you will often harm yourself, just like some people don’t know that hot oil pans can’t be flushed directly, and they regret it after the explosion and disfigurement. What we need to do is understand. Its "value" and "product cycle" know when it can be used and how long it can be used in the current economic state.

The social situation is constantly changing and rapidly changing, and the delusion of one trick to conquer the world can be said to be a fantasy, whether it is a trader or a value investor.

Back to the topic of bull and bear It may not be as we wish. In this long torrent of time, what most retail investors and institutions have done is to constantly revise their expected judgments, increase future bullish positions, reduce future bearish targets, and finally let the most advanced market. A group of people harvests funds that are too late to deploy, and institutions usually win because they can always find someone to give up their chips at a relatively low point, and someone to take over the hot potato at a relatively high point. The main reason is that they picked a A project with a relatively high win rate (strong fundamentals), then buy it when no one cares, and sell it when there is a lot of buzz.

If you ask me is it important to judge bulls and bears? My answer is "important".

Because at least you have to know whether you are in a crowded city or an uninhabited island! However, it is unnecessary to be obsessed with whether it is a bull market or a bear market every few weeks or even days. Obviously, even if we have the answer, it will not make our assets grow dozens or hundreds of times, so we should focus on way to get there, rather than obsessing about it.

A small summary, observed from the perspective of a value investor (this article does not discuss the concept of Trading), indicators and the basic concept of resistance points are indeed good tools for us to interpret market conditions, but it does not stop there, affecting the entire macro economy. There are too many factors, and there are also many possibilities in the industry. The reason why I will continue to stay in the cryptocurrency market is very simple, just because I “subjectively believe” that this market is the same as the US stock market. Whether it is a mainstream currency or a trending currency, the layout within the appropriate risk range is left to time to prove all of this.