Will the U.S. military aircraft use the Taiwan Strait as a showground to trigger a new missile crisis?

The recent Taiwan Strait has become a show in the United States.

On July 13, Carlos Del Toro, the nominee for Secretary of the Navy, said at the Senate Armed Services Committee's appointment hearing: "It is extremely important to defend Taiwan in all possible ways" and that "we should provide Taiwan as much as possible." adequate self-defense measures". Regarding his plans after taking office, Toro also promised, "If confirmed as Secretary of the Navy, he will focus on advancing the U.S. maritime strategy to protect Taiwan and all U.S. national security interests in the Indo-Pacific region."

Such a statement aroused the attention of Taiwanese media such as the "Liberty Times", and exaggerated reports with sensational headlines such as "Beijing on the Bar", as if the United States had promised to contribute thousands of troops to the Taiwan Strait. On the other hand, the U.S. military transport aircraft that took off and landed in Taiwan on July 15 and 19 also received media attention, especially in the past two months, the third time the U.S. military transport aircraft landed in Taiwan. The trend of "normalization of US-Taiwan military exchanges".

Looking at the above measures, from the nominee's statement to the take-off and landing of military aircraft, the United States seems to intend to go further in the Taiwan Strait, but in fact it exposes the embarrassment that it is difficult to make drastic measures and can only cut sausages in a limited space. 's contrived.

When "Taiwan Strait" becomes a cliché

First of all, Toro’s speech does not have the meaning of commitment, but instead outlines the politically correct game in the United States: From the perspective of identity politics, the nomination of Toro, who is a Latino, to be the Secretary of the US Navy, there is already Biden (Joe) Biden) advertised the consideration of "paying attention to ethnic minorities"; and Toro's statement was a planning performance for the sake of smooth taking office and departmental budgets to meet the requirements of the audience.

Since Biden took office, "Taiwan Strait" has become a kind of popular keyword, not only in the US-Japan joint statement in April 2021, but also in joint statements such as G7 summits and NATO summits. None of them participated in the meeting, and the Taiwan Strait issue still erupted with topics such as the origin of the new crown virus, Xinjiang and Hong Kong, which became one of the knots in the siege of Chinese public opinion.

Under this circumstance, American politicians will not be completely indifferent to the wind direction, especially when it comes to internal statements. Taking Toro’s speech as an example, raising the Taiwan Strait issue at the hearing does not represent an official commitment of the United States, but it can prove its loyalty by taking a tough stance, and even set a stage for the department to win the budget.

For example, when Toro mentioned the words "after defending Taiwan by all means", he then added: If the United States wants to strengthen its deterrence against Beijing, it must invest "additional resources" in the Navy and Marine Corps to ensure combat effectiveness. Therefore, after taking office, he will propose to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that more resources should be allocated for the Navy in the defense budget of the 2023 fiscal year. .

The above speech seems to have the ambition of a Sino-US war, but it was weakened by another dialogue between the two parties. When Republican Senator Rick Scott asked, "Recent war games show that once the People's Liberation Army attacks Taiwan, it will be very difficult for the United States to defend Taiwan", Toro replied in fours and twos. Tweeted "without knowledge", but promised to "research immediately".

The back and forth of the words revealed the cruelty of reality: although politicians shouted on the podium to protect the security of the Taiwan Strait, but they knew nothing about the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, but such a strange phenomenon does not mean that Toro has a split personality, but the American political arena. The collective mentality of just wanting foreplay and unwilling to showdown. The real purpose is to use the clichés of the Taiwan Strait to reap all kinds of political interests, whether it is to contain China or win the budget.

Slicing sausages while playing with fire

In all fairness, the eloquence at the hearing sounded majestic, and at the same time teased the sensitive points of the Taiwanese media, making it lead readers to immerse themselves in the illusion of "American support for Taiwan". The storm in the teapot will not cause huge waves. However, taking off and landing U.S. military aircraft in Taiwan is obviously not the same risk level.

On July 15, the U.S. C-146 Wolfhound tactical transport plane landed in Taiwan, and Wu Qian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, made a statement on this, mentioning that "Taiwan is a sacred and inseparable part of China's territory, and any foreign military aircraft should The landing must be approved by the government of the People's Republic of China, and any foreign ships and aircrafts trespassing into the airspace will have serious consequences." The Zhejiang Foreign Naval Exercise held on July 16 was also regarded by the outside world as a countermeasure against the take-off and landing of US military aircraft in Taiwan, sending a tough signal.

However, from the perspective of the development on July 19, the United States obviously did not take this warning into mind, and still dispatched transport planes to Taiwan on the same day, triggering many speculations such as "whether the arrival of US military planes to Taiwan is about to become normal"; The People's Liberation Army's Zhejiang Foreign Naval Exercise, which ended on March 21, is even still going on. Such a bold move by the United States is undoubtedly a tightrope walk at a high altitude, but still blindfolded.

The reason for such a performance is that China's military strength is growing, which is gradually making "military reunification" a real option; seeing the situation develop like this, although the United States wants to avoid self-immolation, it is reluctant to simply withdraw. Without drastically changing the vague strategic axis of the platform, a limited breakthrough in the sausage-cutting style began. For example, the resumption of the Taiwan-US TIFA, the frequent use of military aircraft to Taiwan, etc., used the seemingly elevated substantive interaction between the US and Taiwan to cover up the reality that the chips in their hands are shrinking. In particular, the United States will usher in the mid-term elections in 2022. At this time, Biden's "edge ball" also has the intention of boosting the election.

However, performance and ability are two different things, and the former cannot even be equated with willingness. Today, when the strength of the United States is shrinking day by day, Washington's right to speak in the Taiwan Strait is also reduced. Such a random operation of cutting sausages is just after the allies are reluctant to support "sending troops across the Taiwan Strait", and they want to learn from Donald Trump. Try your luck. But even in 2020, when the new crown epidemic is spreading, Sino-Indian border conflicts are recurring, and the Sino-US trade war is breaking out, Trump cannot exchange the slightest concession from Beijing in the Taiwan Strait. How can today's Biden score points? On the contrary, jumping back and forth and shrinking back and forth, not only shows the chaos of the Sunset Hegemony, but also exposes the embarrassment of his lack of strength and still trying to save face.

However, with the long-term strategic planning and the rising voice of internal unification, Beijing is bound to not watch the US performance forever. Given the presence of the spokesperson and the military exercise, Beijing may come to the rescue at some point in the future, and it may be tougher than any of its current moves. In other words, if the military plane is not extremely close to the island of Taiwan, it will fly over the island, and even reproduce the 1996 Taiwan Strait missile crisis. If such a tough counterattack is introduced, Beijing’s purpose is not to provoke war and cause unnecessary sacrifice, but to prevent the continuous erosion of the one-China principle by the United States and Taiwan, and at the same time ensure its own initiative in the game. The United States forced the sea.

The U.S. may think that Kurt Campbell’s previous “U.S. does not support Taiwan independence” has caused the tension boat to cross the Taiwan Strait without a trace. It should be a piece of safe tofu that can be eaten, but after biting it down, it was found that it was still a hard bone in Beijing's hands.

The current military aircraft turmoil has aroused public outrage among the Chinese people. Although Beijing will not immediately reunite by force, the aforementioned tough measures should already be brewing. If it takes action at that time, it may form a "half-forced showdown" pressure on the United States and accelerate its withdrawal from the Taiwan Strait. pace. How to prevent the situation from evolving to this point is still the key to the mentality of the United States. From respecting China's red lines and claims in the Taiwan Strait, to avoiding the overturning of the Taiwan Strait and affecting the overall situation of Sino-US interaction, the United States must not only try to get used to China, but also start for its own exit. Read China carefully.

The original text was published on 2021/7/20 " Multidimensional News "