The rebirth of the Kuomintang begins with the position and expression of the discussion

After the KMT lost this election, as the largest opposition party in the opposition, it is only natural to oppose the ruling party's administration and bills. But we must note that opposition does not necessarily lead to positive results. Opposition that is not well expressed or that has a bad position will bring harm to the opposition party instead of having a positive impact.

Four years before the review, the Kuomintang's Legislative Yuan group was viewed by the public as incompetent and weak. Although this view may seem biased, it is generally true. In the past four years, the bills that the DPP has thought about can be passed regardless of whether the opposition of the Kuomintang is strong or not. Even better, bills that the DPP does not want to pass can use the Kuomintang caucus as a rescue pitcher, and put the responsibility for failing bills on the Kuomintang. Instead of adding points to the Kuomintang, such a party group has become a weakness of the Kuomintang, and has been attacked by "it's useless to vote for the Kuomintang". Some party members may say that we have a small number of people and that the constitutional interpretation is not enough to stop the crime of non-war. The best way to fight back against such remarks is to let him take a look at the performance of the caucus when the DPP was in opposition. Although the DPP caucus is in the minority, it has always been able to resist the bills proposed by the Kuomintang. The reason is that his argumentative expression and position have gained the support of the general public outside the Legislative Yuan, which makes the Kuomintang to be afraid of hurting its future elections. And even if the Kuomintang wants the strong men to break their wrists and force it to pass, the DPP can inspire the people to attack the Legislative Yuan to interrupt the legislative process.

On the other hand, the Kuomintang caucus. Although the DPP has come up with many bills and issues in the past four years (one case, one break, same-sex marriage, pension reform, wind power, forward-looking construction, etc.), the opposing Kuomintang has not received any support from folk voices. The reason for such a result lies in the expression and position of the discussion.

This article will demonstrate how different expressions and positions can have different effects on the upcoming issue "whether ecfa renews".

Attitude assumptions of the parties to the issue

Mainland China : The Mainland side is not willing to take the initiative to renew the contract. This is because 1 ecfa does not have much impact on the mainland economy itself. This agreement was originally a political agreement to give benefits to Taiwan. In the case of the DPP in power, continuing to give profit equals capital to the enemy.

2 Cross-strait relations are extremely rigid, and in many cases they cannot be read. Official communication was almost cut off. Considering its own political situation, the mainland will never be the first to extend an olive branch.

Variable : A big man is under re-election pressure

Predict its strategy : never mention the renewal of the contract, wait for the DPP to release its goodwill and take countermeasures according to the situation.

DPP : Although the DPP strongly opposed ecfa before it came to power, it did not take action against ecfa after it came to power. Although the DPP has always emphasized reducing its trade dependence on the mainland, Taiwan's export dependence on the mainland has risen from 13.93% in 2016 to 18.5% in 2018 (2018), and the mainland market still accounts for 41.2% of total exports.

1 The non-renewal of the ecfa contract is a small wave for the mainland, but a big tsunami for Taiwan. If this happens, the DPP's ruling crisis will inevitably occur. Therefore, the DPP will inevitably soften its attitude and strive for the renewal of the ecfa contract.

2 If the ecfa contract is renewed, the DPP will prove to Taiwan that it has the ability to handle cross-strait relations and to obtain benefits from the other side. This will further strengthen the DPP and completely eliminate the KMT's cross-strait card

Variable : Now that anti-China sentiment has been pulled to the apex, the DPP will face difficulties in turning

Predict its strategy : take the initiative to soften its attitude and export goodwill to the other side to seek contract renewal opportunities

In the face of such a political situation, we make the following three assumptions and analyze their effects.

1 Traditional discourse

"The DPP opposed ecfa before and now seeks ecfa is really self-inflicted. When the Kuomintang was at the time of peaceful coexistence between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, there would never be a situation where there would be suffering in renewing the contract. The DPP has denied the 1992 consensus over the past few years, and it fears that it will lead to hatred. The card is used to benefit its own election, completely disregarding that the cross-strait relationship has fallen into freezing point, and abandoning the Taiwanese businessmen on the other side and Taiwan's economy. Now the DPP is afraid that ecfa's failure to renew the contract will affect its own economy and affect its own governance, so it is fake , pretending to want to show goodwill to the other side. The DPP's ruling rhetoric has gone stale, and the people have been suffering under its rule for four years! Are we going to have another four years of suffering? Taiwan is under the DPP's rule. It will only get poorer and more isolated under its power. If the DPP really has the sincerity to negotiate, then please show a sincere and friendly attitude and review its previous China-terrorism tactics and the derived anti-infiltration law. If the final contract is not reached, the DPP will bear the greatest responsibility."

Key points : accuse the DPP, the 1992 consensus, and call on the people to replace the ruling party.

Analysis : This is the traditional discourse of the Kuomintang. Such an argument cannot be considered wrong, but it is not contagious to the public, and even has a negative negative effect. This is because, in the eyes of the public, ecfa itself is an economic agreement of mutual benefit between the two sides of the strait, but this agreement is literally added with political meaning and political binding by the other side, as a political weapon against Taiwan independence. This is unfair and disgusting. The Kuomintang dare not accuse the other side, dare not point out the responsibility of the other side, it will only lash out at the DPP, which defends its sovereignty, and speak for the other side, which will make people despised. Moreover, at the time of the national crisis, the Kuomintang did not forget to seize the interests of the party and only thought of itself and the election, which is really despised.

Result : The opposition and arguments of the KMT will be ignored and become a fringe and outlet for this issue. In the hearts of the people, the Kuomintang bowed down to the other side

2 voluntarily give up

"The DPP won 8.17 million votes in this election and has been fully authorized by the people. Facing such trust and expectations, the DPP has the responsibility to face the mainland and seek benefits for the people of Taiwan. President Tsai Ing-wen should put aside his fear of China and rebellion. We should communicate with each other with the mentality of peaceful exchanges between the two sides of the strait. The compatriots on both sides of the strait share the same language and blood, and should not hate each other. Only peaceful coexistence and mutual communication is the only right way.”

Key points : Emphasize that the two sides of the strait are one family, and call for peaceful coexistence

Analysis : This is one of several possible discourses after the Kuomintang's introspection. Comparing this kind of discourse with traditional discourses 1 is to abandon the 1992 Consensus and acknowledge that the historical mission of the 1992 Consensus has come to an end 2 is to avoid conflicts with the DPP on cross-strait issues, and take the initiative to hand over the cross-strait issues to the DPP for handling 3 is There is no clear statement on whether to renew the contract.

Some economic blues would be disappointed by such a response. The reason why they support the Kuomintang is that they feel that the Kuomintang can make peaceful exchanges between the two sides of the strait possible to quell conflicts. And the Kuomintang voluntarily gave up means that they lost the reason to support the Kuomintang. Some members of the Angst for Independence will be quite critical of the statement of one family on both sides of the strait. Others completely ignored the Kuomintang and believed that the Kuomintang had completely lost the ability to deal with cross-strait issues.

Result : The KMT was marginalized on this issue and lost its cross-strait card for two decades. Some traditional supporters are disappointed with the KMT.

3 Anti-Chinese discussion

"On the surface, ecfa is an economic agreement that is beneficial to both sides of the strait. However, the Kuomintang and the people in Taiwan understand that ecfa itself has political meaning and political purposes. Over the years, in cross-strait exchanges, because of the ultimate unification concept of the Kuomintang and the consensus on 1992 The Kuomintang always favors the Kuomintang and disdains the DPP, which advocates Taiwan independence. The Kuomintang does not agree with the DPP's idea of Taiwan independence, but it also does not agree with the mainland's "one country, two systems" and "reunification". Therefore, the Kuomintang hopes that the mainland can Treat Taiwan's political parties fairly, don't wear tinted glasses because of some misunderstandings, and do economic exchanges with Taiwan in a friendly and equal manner. ecfa is very important to Taiwan. Taiwan is an export-oriented economy, and The mainland market accounts for 41.2% of the export volume and is Taiwan's largest economic and trade partner. If the ecfa contract is not renewed, Taiwan's economy will face a great impact, causing large-scale unemployment, and cross-strait exchanges will also be significantly affected We hope that this contract renewal negotiation can be less political, return to the economic agreement itself, and give Taiwanese young people a chance and a job, so that the economic and trade exchanges between the two sides of the strait will not be affected by ideological disputes. We also promote the democracy The party appeals to us not to forget our original intentions while actively and bravely shouldering the responsibility of cross-strait exchanges. Maintaining the national sovereignty of the Republic of China is the consensus of both the ruling and opposition parties. The DPP must no longer choose to exchange sovereignty for ecfa when under pressure. The renewal of the contract. Let us unite and work together to complete the renewal of the ecfa contract.”

Key point : Put the responsibility on the mainland, cut off from the mainland, call for fair treatment and the DPP not to make concessions in sovereignty

Analysis : If such a statement appears, it will undoubtedly be a nuclear bomb in the political arena. The Kuomintang first reviewed itself and acknowledged its benefits over the years. Then generously suggested to the other side not to dominate the Kuomintang and show a high pattern. This will refresh the minds of the people all over Taiwan, and some people will greatly change their views on the Kuomintang, believing that the Kuomintang has really changed. The accusations against the mainland and the call not to tie up politics and economy conform to the mainstream public opinion of the Taiwanese people and win the favor of the people. The severance with the mainland will also greatly remove the KMT's doubts about "selling Taiwan to reunify", and will also give the KMT a higher defense and resistance in the face of the DPP's next round of smearing. Finally, calling on the DPP to uphold its sovereignty is to oppose the DPP army. If the DPP chooses to back down and exchange an agreement, it will definitely face stronger accusations and the question of "Are you actually softer than the KMT?", which will greatly shake its image of "protecting Taiwan and opposing China".

Result : The KMT gained a seat on this issue and assumed responsibility for monitoring whether the DPP values sovereignty. The Kuomintang also took this to show a very high pattern, presenting a brand new and reformed party image to the people.

Questions for the third discourse

1 The Kuomintang took an anti-China line. When the Kuomintang comes to power, will the other side still give in as before?

Will do. Because the other side has no choice. Reunification by force has been a dream for at least the past two decades, and it is absolutely impossible. And if Taiwan's blue-green balance is out of balance and the people rush to green, it will not only completely cut off hope for peaceful reunification, but also make it difficult for military reunification in the future. Therefore, even if the other side is dissatisfied with the Kuomintang, it has to continue to make concessions in order to maintain a certain ratio of blue and green.

2 In this way, does such a high pattern really help to sign ecfa?

The chairman confessed to everyone that such a high pattern is indeed a false high pattern. Such an argument not only does not help to renew ecfa but will make it more difficult to renew ecfa. Taiwanese people always maintain an idealized emotional thinking about politics and put realistic thinking in a second-class position. Although such an argument is unhelpful for contract renewal, it will definitely win the approval of the Taiwanese people. And if the renewal fails, it will be more helpful for the Kuomintang to return to power.

end

The third argument is the best argument that the Kuomintang can put forward when facing the ecfa issue. If the Kuomintang can follow this position when it opposes the DPP in the future, then the chances of the Kuomintang returning to power in 2024 are great. But what the Chairman is worried about is that such a statement is something that can only be thought of by traditional political elites who have been influenced by the traditional party-state palace politics. These new generations who are about to take charge of the Kuomintang, these new generations with completely different growth environments, they really put forward Is this kind of argument capable?

Zhu Lilun is a pro-American faction of the Kuomintang, very capable and trusted by the United States. However, this person's shortcomings are that he is very ambitious (when Zhu Lilun was the vice president of the Executive Yuan, he even sat in the position of the president in the absence of the chairman of the executive Yuan at that time), and he also lacks the ability to fight politically. (Originally, the poll was the highest and most favored, but was manipulated by the chairman to be the third, and missed the general election). These shortcomings also made it difficult for him to comprehend the essence and possibility of the third discourse. Hou Youyi, the biggest prince of the Kuomintang, was sincere, honest and honest. But it was precisely because he was honest and honest that he couldn't think of such an argument. Lu Xiuyan, mother mayor. A gentle and generous person, she must be out of touch with a sharp, adventurous discourse. Jiang Wanan? Jiang Qichen? So far I can't see the bright spot of the two, but I don't have much hope for these two.

Some people accuse the chairman of being nostalgic for the chairmanship and unwilling to step down immediately. This is really a misunderstanding of the chairman. The old man has gone and the new man has not yet risen, how can he not feel his responsibility for such a Kuomintang chairman, how can he just walk away and enjoy the happiness of his family? Out of love for the Kuomintang and the Republic of China, the chairman would rather bear the blame from inside and outside the party, and would rather ruin his reputation and dedicate his last life to the Kuomintang. I also hope that you will understand.