On the Continent's Institutional Problems

Recently, there have been various debates about the regime in the mainland. Some are opposed to the regime in the mainland, saying that there is no democracy, no freedom, no rule of law, and no human rights in the mainland. This is not good. Others defended the mainland, saying that although there is no democracy, the government will not do too much things, and although there is no rule of law, there is usually no chaos. Although this is not good and that is not good, the Chinese are doing well. Not bad, Yunyun.

But is the Chinese government really like this? Can a government that has fallen to such a degree really tolerate it in today's Chinese society?

Even the most authoritarian regimes cannot survive without any supporters. So, rather than looking at democracy or dictatorship in form, it's better to look at who is the voice of this government, how much weight these different groups occupy, and what their political aspirations are.

So who are the supporters of the Chinese government? The first is the various elites in Chinese society. China's elites can be roughly divided into three groups. One group is the big or small red aristocrats who made their fortunes on the corpses of the old system, the other group is the less red aristocrats who made their fortunes under the protection of the government, and the other group It is completely new money. The second group usually exists as agents and vassals of the first group, but also has some independence.

It should be said that the attitude of the elites towards the government is complicated. Although we have little interest in the inside story between them, this political struggle does influence the direction of the Chinese government to a large extent. The major trends of the central government are largely determined by this.

The second is the group of people who are not so elite, who have the slightest possibility to become elites, and who usually live a fair life. Some discussions in mainland China sometimes use expressions such as "fine Zhao" and "fine capital". It's the part of the group that supports the government the most. Like the usual middle class, this group of people is afraid of change and wants their little fortune to last. Unlike the usual middle class, this group is also afraid of changes from above. Although the individual weight is not as heavy as the previous group, but because of the struggle within the elite, the overall strength of this group is enough to compete with the elite and in some cases sway decision-making. Of course, there is also the support of the middle class behind the elite, so these two types of forces are interrelated.

And another group of people that some here see as enemies, many of them belong to this group.

As a result, because the Chinese government has to pay attention to the second group of people, there must be some kind of democracy in China: this kind of democracy is not the democracy of the People's Congress and the Political Consultative Conference system, the two sessions are more for the elite Prepared, though there will be plenty of innocuous issues related to the middle class. The realization of democracy in China is more based on public opinion and mass events.

But this kind of democracy isn't always good, and it's usually not even right now. This primitive way of realizing democracy can either be easily led or turned to populism. And when the elites agree, this democracy is powerless against the elites.

For example, in the NBA incident, the various responses of various parties in the early stage of the incident were based on public opinion rather than the government, and this response was quickly withdrawn due to the collective opposition of the elite. This is the embodiment of "easy to turn to populism" and "inability to confront elites".

On the other hand, elites enjoy full power at the center, but the central government does not have sufficient control over the localities. Local power is usually held by local elites rather than by the elite collectively. Such a China is more in line with the feudal picture. In this case, the middle class will tend to support the central government due to the needs of confronting local elites, and elites will have differences over their own interests in a certain region, which is another dimension of China's socio-political struggle.

If mass incidents in a certain place do not harm the interests of other elites, then the demands of mass incidents are likely to be supported by the central government as a means of suppressing localities. But if a mass event is opposed by the local center, it is likely to fail: last year's event was like this.

In addition, the Chinese government also has problems with bureaucracy, but this bureaucracy is more of a by-product of political struggle.

In recent years, the strength of the elite, especially the red aristocracy, has been increasing, and the bargaining power of new money and the middle class has been declining. This may lead to the gradual disclosure of various conflicts, and may also weaken these two forces. If This does happen, especially the decline of the middle class, and it will be a disaster for most Chinese people.