Epidemic prevention and control in mainland China needs to get out of three misunderstandings

Because of the high infectivity of the new crown variant Omicron, the current situation of my country's epidemic prevention is indeed not optimistic. In the past month, the local epidemic has spread in many places. From February 10 to March 13, 2022, the number of confirmed cases in the local area increased from 7 to 1,807, affecting 26 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). In addition, a notable feature of this round of the epidemic is the increase in asymptomatic infections. From March 7 to March 12, the number of asymptomatic infections nationwide exceeded the number of daily confirmed cases for six consecutive days.

It can be said that this is a situation that ordinary people have not seen for a long time: the outbreak of Wuhan epidemic and the closure of the city for more than two years, when people began to forget, the closure of the city caused by the epidemic in Xi'an in January this year evoked unpleasant memories. However, the epidemic situation since February this year is different from the situation in Wuhan and Xi'an at that time, that is, it spread in many places, increasing the panic in different cities. In this case, some countermeasures have been introduced around the world. However, after sorting out, we can easily find that some countermeasures are too radical.

The first is to close the city at every turn.

A more prominent example is Zhuozhou City, a county-level city under Baoding City, Hebei Province: On March 8, three confirmed cases were reported, and the city was closed, and all personnel engaged in production, life and residence in the city were quarantined at home for 3 days ( From March 8-11), and then add another day (March 12). On March 13, it was announced that the city's residents would be quarantined at home for 3 days! During the lockdown period, the entire city (including the villages) had all the nucleic acids, and by March 14, a total of four nucleic acids had been carried out.

With such a big fight, how many confirmed cases will there be in the end? According to the data released by the Office of the Leading Group for Responding to the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic in Zhuozhou City, in addition to the three confirmed on March 8, two more were confirmed on March 12. Judging from the trajectory of their movements, they were close contacts of the three! And on March 8, it has been centrally quarantined. In other words, the city was closed for four days, and all the ordinary people had nucleic acid three times, and no case was screened at all!

Zhuozhou is not an isolated case. In the early morning of March 13, the Office of the Leading Group (Headquarters) of the Huantai County Party Committee in Zibo City, Shandong Province issued a notice forcing "the entire county to implement the practice of "quiet people, stay at home, stay in place, and stay in original positions". . From the infection data, on March 12, there were 3 new confirmed cases (all asymptomatic infections) in Huantai County. According to previous reports, Jingsan Village, Jingjia Town, Huantai County, Building 14, Lanxiangyuan, No. 2277 Central Street, Huantai County, and Building 3, Shenjia Community, Guoli Town, Huantai County, are classified as medium-risk areas. On the same day, Shenzhen's community communities were closed in a closed manner, and buses and subways were suspended, which was a "closed city". From 0:00 to 24:00 on March 12 in Shenzhen, 66 new cases were added in Shenzhen, of which 60 were diagnosed as confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia and 6 were diagnosed as asymptomatic infections of the new coronavirus. Within 7 days (March 6-March 12), nearly 150 new confirmed cases were confirmed in Shenzhen. You know, the seventh census data in Shenzhen in May 2021 shows that the city's resident population (including the Shenzhen-Shantou Special Cooperation Zone) is 17.5601 million.

The second is over-defense.

Taking returning to Beijing as an example, starting from November 17, 2021, personnel entering (returning) Beijing must hold a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 48 hours and the green code of "Beijing Health Treasure": more than 1 case within 14 days (Including 1 case) Persons with a history of travel and residence in the county (city, district, banner) where the local new crown virus infected person is located are strictly restricted from entering (returning) Beijing. In addition, for commuters in the Beijing area, after the implementation of this measure, they must hold a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 48 hours after entering (returning) Beijing for the first time, and each time they enter (return) Beijing with a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 14 days.

In fact, before this wave of the epidemic, it can be said that the above-mentioned regulations were not strictly implemented. As long as it is a green code and has a negative nucleic acid certificate, it can be unimpeded. But now that the situation has changed, the above provisions have not only been strictly enforced but also strengthened. For example, people who live in Beijing and go to work in Zhuozhou are commuters in the Beijing area, and they can pass the green code and nucleic acid certificate. As a result, due to the presence of several confirmed cases in Zhuozhou, Beijing Healthbao popped up the window to the people stranded in Zhuozhou, "If you are outside Beijing, please suspend your coming to Beijing. After the epidemic-related risks are ruled out, there are no epidemic-related counties (cities, districts) within 14 days. After entering (returning) other regulations in Beijing, you can re-apply for the status of 'green code' through Health Care."

According to the above logic, whether you are a commuter or not, as long as there is a case in your location, you must stay where you are and cannot return to Beijing. What is more paradoxical is that the outbreak of the epidemic in Beijing does not restrict you from moving across districts in the city; it does not restrict you from leaving Beijing, but it is only recommended that "not necessary, do not go to Beijing".

What is even more incomprehensible is that when an epidemic occurred in other places, Beijing went back many days in the past. For example, Zhuozhou reported the epidemic on March 8, and the health code of commuters who returned to Beijing once on March 3 will prompt home quarantine, and the community will even put a seal on the door, prohibiting the whole family from entering and leaving.

The third is "nucleic acid worship".

When one or a few cases appear in many places, the nucleic acid of all staff is immediately forced, and not once, but many times. Zhuozhou requires four nucleic acid tests in the city this time (all staff are free). Beijing has also begun to require all staff to do nucleic acid in primary and secondary schools.

Nucleic acid is of course an important means of screening. The question is, should everyone do nucleic acid? Does it have to be done multiple times of nucleic acid? From past experience, precise epidemic prevention is king! When a case occurs, trace its trajectory, isolate close contacts and sub-close contacts, and conduct isolation and nucleic acid three times. There is no need for all staff to have nucleic acid.

Although the price of nucleic acid testing has dropped significantly (for example, Beijing has dropped from more than 70 last year to more than 30, and mixed testing is now only 8 yuan), it is a good business but it is true. The annual report of the listed company shows that Dean Diagnostics expects a net profit of 1.105 billion-1.252 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 38%-56%; Xilong Science's operating income in the first half of 2021 is about 3.232 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is about 132 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 409.79%. Although the test was free when the outbreak was discovered, it actually used taxpayer money.

This year, Liang Wannian, dean of Tsinghua University's Institute of Health China, published a paper in the Chinese Medical Journal, arguing that from the beginning of the epidemic to the present, my country's epidemic prevention and control has gone through three stages, namely: emergency containment stage for sudden outbreaks, normalized prevention and control The control exploration stage and the "dynamic clearing" stage of precise prevention and control of the whole chain. The first phase of the "containment" strategy, that is, within a limited geographical area, non-drug interventions such as regional blockades, school suspensions and work stoppages are used to stop the spread of the virus as much as possible.

From August 2021, China has entered the "dynamic clearing" stage of precise prevention and control of the entire chain: my country has entered the "dynamic clearing" stage of precise prevention and control of the entire chain. Its essence is to "take effective comprehensive prevention and control measures, pursue rapidity and precision, rather than 'zero infection', and pursue maximum coordination of epidemic prevention and control and social and economic development."

From a scientific and effective point of view, "dynamic clearing" is faster and more accurate, and the less damage to social operation, the less impact it has on economic development. However, unfortunately, since the end of the Winter Olympics, the response to epidemic control in various places has violated the original intention and relevant principles of "dynamic clearing", and has directly returned to the emergency containment stage of sudden epidemics, that is, the wartime response stage.

As the old saying goes, "Eat a cut grows a wiser". In the more than two years of epidemic prevention and control, our country has accumulated a lot of experience and learned a lot. From the perspective of social governance, we should not go back. "Dynamic clearing" is to say goodbye to the emergency containment stage and the normalized prevention and control exploration stage. In the panorama of big data, almost everyone is transparent, and the trajectory of action is extremely accurate, it is not difficult to implement precise, scientific and rational management of the epidemic.

At the just-concluded National Two Sessions, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out when participating in the deliberation of the Inner Mongolia delegation that the Chinese Communist Party is rooted in the people and its blood is in the people, and it must uphold the supremacy of the people. Behind the concept of "people first" is people-oriented, which is to protect the people's yearning for a better life. From the perspective of epidemic prevention and control, to implement this concept, the first consideration of relevant government departments at all levels is to minimize the impact of prevention and control on people's production and life. From the big picture, this is to escort China's development, not to add chaos.