Ten predictions from the Financial Times for 2022

In its outlook for 2022, notable key predictions include: 2022 may see a more contagious variant of the new coronavirus than the Omnicorn variant, inflation will not return to the Fed's 2% target by the end of 2022, tight money Policy will hit stocks, and the next global climate meeting will still not do enough to limit warming.

Here are ten predictions excerpted from:

1. More contagious variants of Covid-19 will dominate the world: The virus could infect billions more by 2022. Whether the next Covid-19 variant causes more severe symptoms or mortality will depend on the progress of vaccinations around the world and how well social distancing is maintained.

2. Inflation will not return to the Fed’s 2% target by the end of 2022: 2021 inflation will not be a blip. The supply shortage seen in 2021 may indeed be temporary. But the housing component of the consumer price index (CPI) still seems likely to rise sharply. The Fed is expected to adopt moderate tightening measures in 2022, and the policy adjustment has a lag, which may cause core inflation, especially wage inflation, to rise instead of falling in 2022.

3. The "turnover wave" will end: In the United States, the "turnover wave" has begun to lose momentum, and mothers who stopped working during school closures are returning to the workforce. If Omicron recedes concerns, more workers will return and savings accumulated earlier will be depleted.

4. The 26th Conference of the Parties to the UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) in 2022 cannot limit global warming to 1.5ºC: Even with all the new climate commitments made at the COP26 summit in Glasgow, compared to the pre-industrial era, Global temperatures will still rise by at least 1.8 degrees Celsius, more likely 2.4 degrees Celsius.

5. Democrats lose control of Congress in November: Midterm elections are often a setback for the party that controls the White House. Aside from the low approval ratings of US President Joe Biden, Republicans have been unfairly gerrymandering their own states. While this would fuel liberal discontent, it would not prevent Democrats from losing control of Congress.

6. The Iran nuclear negotiation cannot be reached: Tehran considers that the risks outweigh the security benefits, Tehran's uranium enrichment is approaching weapons level, and the Biden administration hopes to save the Iran nuclear deal, and it is expected that it is very likely to persuade Iran to abide by the agreement and reach an agreement Small.

7. The S&P 500 could drop more than 10%: It's hard to believe that the Fed's tightening won't disrupt the stock market, especially considering current inflation is an untamable beast. The possibility that the Fed will need to slam on the brakes is real, and the Fed's response to inflation has become politicized, but whether the market will remain low is another matter entirely.

8. The U.S. can’t succeed in amending Section 230 to shrink the law’s immunity protections for Big Tech: Although Democrats and Republicans alike want four proposals to amend Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, the provision for tech companies in their Content posted on the platform offers disclaimers, but their focus is not uniform. Both sides are under pressure to be tough on tech giants ahead of the midterm elections, but the lack of a simple solution will make it difficult for both sides to agree.

9. No more countries will ban cryptocurrencies: In a market with free and easy access to the internet, it is impossible to impose a broad crypto ban. Increased regulation has been chosen in most countries. One exception, though, is India, where the government said in November that it was considering a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies.

10. The art-related NFT bubble won’t burst: Since Beeple sold for $69 million at Christie’s in March, art-related NFTs have proliferated at a rate that surprised everyone. Galleries and auction houses have created dedicated NFT divisions. This phenomenon has all the hallmarks of a classic bubble, so a sharp correction will almost certainly occur at some point. But the number of players entering the space, flexibility and speed of innovation means that the market will continue to proliferate through at least 2022.