本年度第二個黑天鵝起飛

第一個是俄烏戰爭

第二個是英國首相約翰遜辭職

Little more than two and a half years ago, Mr. Johnson led the Conservative Party to its biggest election victory in decades. Until the next general election — on a date set by the prime minister, and potentially as late as January 2025 — only his own party's lawmakers can force him out.

A series of sexual misconduct scandals among Conservative lawmakers have further damaged Mr. Johnson. This week's cabinet resignations followed the departure of Chris Pincher, a deputy chief whip — responsible for disciplining Conservative lawmakers — who was promoted by Mr. Johnson despite accusations of inappropriate behavior. Ministers and other officials denied on Mr. Johnson's behalf that he had been aware of those accusations, only for that account to rapidly unravel.

One of the reasons Mr. Johnson's fate has been unpredictable is that there is no consensus on who would replace him, and therefore no single cabal plotting to remove him.

新首相不會比約翰遜做的更好，也許他在一些細節上查缺補漏，但對複雜的局勢依舊無能為力：俄烏戰爭通脹歐盟北約疫情公投風波每一個都可能無能為力。

美國人會懷念裡根與克林頓時代，英國人會在撒切爾夫人和布萊爾時代徘徊，但舊日一去不回。

今年中美還各有一場大的，藥丸不丸去哪說呢?