How to believe - how we choose under the epidemic

When SARS broke out in 2003, I should have been in the first grade of elementary school, because the place where I was was not affected, and I didn't have any special impression of SARS - but I vaguely remember the smell of white vinegar in the air and being poured into me by my mother. Radix isatidis from below - but people's memory is always easy to be confused, maybe it was the next few flus, anyway, every "patriotic health campaign" is similar.

This new type of pneumonia, I noticed the news of the closure of the game market in Wuhan very early, but it seems that in the last week, the incident has developed rapidly, and even the closure of Wuhan seems to be uncontrollable. When I am overseas, although I can really feel the panic on social media, I find that many people cannot judge the real situation - the authority of the government published in the eyes of people around me does not seem to be "authoritative", compared to "People's Daily". ”, the information obtained from the eldest nephew of the second uncle who is an elementary school classmate who works in the hospital seems to be more convincing, and even more willing to believe the screenshots of chats that do not know where they came from – by catching “rumor makers” and deleting posts and mainstream The "government credibility" established by the "authoritative release" of the media seems to collapse instantly when countless people in Lebanon encounter events that are closely related to their own lives.

It's like the emperor's new clothes: we all know the government's consistent style, but no one will stand up when it's not about us. Sentenced - the most terrifying thing is that arresting and judging whether it is a "rumor" is still from the same family. Although many people are reluctant to admit it, and even say that they only want to believe in "the country is peaceful and the people are safe, the years are peaceful", but most people understand the logic: no county magistrate/mayor/provincial governor is in his or her jurisdiction when something happens , whether it is a mass incident or a traffic accident, whether it is food poisoning or a mining plague, no one thinks about how to notify and obtain the corresponding resources in a timely manner. We are all well aware that in this situation, of course, pressure can be suppressed, so that in the eyes of our superiors, our own ruling experience will be "the people's happiness and the social stability". I have only read the SARS story until now. I read that Dr. Jiang Yanyong revealed the truth to the media after the Minister of Health publicly declared that "SARS is not serious, and everyone is welcome to come to Beijing to play." Cooperate to fight the epidemic - but instead of becoming a hero in the fight against SARS, Dr. Jiang was put under conversation or even under house arrest.

I don't know what kind of information the decision makers above the temple rely on to make decisions. Although I hope they have sources of information different from public channels, it is most likely to rely on the huge bureaucracy to report layer by layer - that is to say , the number and distribution of the cases they know is most likely similar to the "authoritative release", which comes from bottom-to-top reporting. This is also the most terrifying situation. If the epidemic cannot be truly grasped, it will only increase the probability of infection of the unnecessary and increase the panic of those who panic. A mining accident and a mass incident have nothing to do with us, but in the irrelevance time and again, we finally face the matter that is at stake with our own lives, but find it difficult to find the truth of the matter: although there are many media, you know that they are With a unified mouthpiece, no matter how loud a person speaks, it is unconvincing without corroborating evidence, not to mention that what this person said before does not seem to be so reliable. There is no independent news media, no voice that can criticize current affairs, and no investigation by an independent third-party agency. All voices from the media, government, and scientific research institutes come from the same source. Well, compared to several hand-made news on social media , how should we believe?

I'm not an expert on infectious diseases, but based on common sense, a reasonable guess can be made. First, how many infected cases are there? According to statistics on Lilac Garden, there are 553 confirmed cases nationwide and 135 suspected cases (including 117 in Hong Kong). I think this number is grossly underestimated. First, the new type of pneumonia has an average incubation period of 7 days after infection, and the symptoms are similar to ordinary flu in the early stage, so there will be a large number of infected people who have not yet sought medical treatment; Infection cases of travelers from 2000 to 2000, it can be seen that the virus has at least the possibility of spreading in public places and can spread widely in public transportation; then, at least from the report of Sanlian Weekly, it can be seen that at least the earliest patients are not There is no effective isolation, and it becomes a "walking source of infection", which also shows the serious shortage of hospital-related resources; also, that is, when the Spring Festival travel with huge crowds begins, no effective measures have been taken; finally, infectious diseases The outbreak of China should grow exponentially before measures are taken, and even if there is "one infection", the number of people who may be infected now should be several times the number of current cases. Taking effective measures is a matter of the last two or three days, so many patients in the incubation period and patients with initial symptoms should be conservatively estimated to be several times the current confirmed cases.

On the other hand, Hong Kong accounts for 117 of the 135 suspected cases. Although the suspected cases in Hubei have not been announced, from the perspective of population flow, at least the suspected cases in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities should be at least equal to Hong Kong. I checked the website of the Hong Kong Department of Health. In fact, the latest data is that there are 135 suspected cases, of which 97 cases have been confirmed to be caused by other viruses, and only 2 cases were initially tested positive. So what do these data tell us? One possibility is that the testing methods in mainland China are much more developed than those in Hong Kong. Someone with early symptoms can come to the test and can be judged immediately, and then they can be ruled out immediately; another possibility is that the Chinese people do not pay attention to such a problem, whether it is economic or not. Considering it, they are still afraid of being quarantined or even being infected in the hospital. They did not pay enough attention to the initial symptoms. In the cases seen on the news, there are not a few people who have symptoms for seven or eight days and then go to the hospital until they become serious. In this case, not only the probability of infection is increased, but the current suspected cases are seriously underestimated. Although there is information on the Internet that relevant kits based on viral nucleic acid detection have appeared, it does not seem to have been put into use on a large scale, or the supply is far from meeting demand.

So, how dangerous is this new type of pneumonia? I am not a medical student and cannot objectively analyze it from a pathogenic mechanism and treatment perspective. The current data is that 28 have been cured and 17 have died. According to the official statistics of SARS, there were 4,698 infections and 284 deaths. If we compare it to SARS and add China's huge population base, then the probability of getting sick is very low, and the probability of dying from the disease is not high. However, it should be noted that many SARS patients have left serious sequelae - even if they do not die, their future lives will be seriously affected. In addition, I have always been cautious about statistics from China. For example, we used to comfort ourselves that "the flu killed 6,000 people in the United States". This is actually a normal data in any developed country. In fact, most of the deaths were caused by influenza. Complications, but in China only a few hundred people die each year from the flu because statistically if the person died from pneumonia caused by the flu, then the cause of the person's death would be attributed to the pneumonia rather than the flu. Without knowing how to define "death" and "healing," it's hard to understand what's really going on.

So what is certain in this Schrödinger's pneumonia? First of all, the pneumonia has spread to most of the country, and the current data must be seriously underestimated. The data is seriously delayed, and you will not know whether your place is safe now; secondly, in public, it is possible to pass people to people and it is certain that a considerable number of virus carriers have not been quarantined; finally, in case of pneumonia, whether the hospital will admit it or not will not only face the risk of death, but also cause harm to their future health. great damage.

Therefore, in the face of such infectious diseases, to protect yourself is to be responsible for your own life and health, and also for the life and health of others. Even if you don't know the exact current situation, it is necessary to prepare for the worst, make the assumption that there is a source of infection around you, wear protective measures such as masks, pay attention to disinfection, etc. are necessary. In front of epidemic prevention work, a person is just a data point. Relying on the spiritual victory of "believing in the country's medical level" is of no use, and relying on "the probability is so small" to break the jar will only harm others, let alone drinking Erguotou to sterilize, unless you have the stunt of drinking with your nose.

Hope everyone has a healthy and healthy New Year.