Coronavirus, Political Stability, Anshi Rebellion - Fear and Hope under the Dome of Ordinary People

Speaking of procrastination, it's terrible. The article that was originally planned to be written at the beginning of the new year has finally been decided to write. Partly because of the academic pressure brought by the reading of the course paper, I really have no time to put it into writing. Another part of the reason is that the ideas in my mind always fail to keep up with the pace of reality. The topic of "political stability maintenance", which I originally expected to briefly discuss, was constantly intersecting and colliding with the events I observed. The structure of the article is changed again and again, and even the most important ideas are erratic. In this way, emotional catharsis and rational narrative appear too difficult. Coupled with the debate on politics and reality with students from different countries, the materials and topics span the Eurasian continent, connecting ancient and modern times.

Finally, the 3 most attractive words left over from multiple brainstorms are the title. Originally unrelated, but they fit each other under the tide of the times. I hope the final text can express my meaning clearly.

Word 1: The protagonist this time is the 2019-nCov novel coronavirus. Its predecessor was the SARS virus that originated in Shunde City, Guangdong Province in 2003, and it ravaged the world in just a few months. As a younger generation, it is also comparable, not only swept across Asian countries such as the mainland and Taiwan in a shorter month, but also traveled across the ocean to take root in Europe and the United States. In addition to the amazing speed, it also has a super long incubation period. Not only can it infect others during the incubation period, but the basic infection coefficient is as high as 3.8, compared to 2.9 for SARS. And some variants do not make the host fever and cough, and directly produce symptoms such as difficulty breathing. This is especially surprising.

A simple explanation is that the usual fever is because the immune system is fighting against the pathogen, and the body that produces an immune response will also actively raise its body temperature to reduce the activity of the pathogen. But because it can deceive the immune system in the body, it is not only not recognized as a foreign pathogen, but also prevents the body from producing an immune response. It can also mislead the immune system to identify human lung cells as foreign bodies, and make the immune system actively attack human cells, eventually resulting in respiratory disorder syndrome.

However, no matter how powerful the virus is, physical isolation and biochemical means will always be the three magic weapons for defending against the enemy. Properly approached, such a virus would only end up being an interesting epidemiological question, perhaps attracting some politicians to discuss globalization issues related to the spread of the virus. But that's it and nothing more

Interestingly, the story did not stop here, and the chaos, suspicion, criticism and panic brought about by the spread of the virus quickly occupied the world. Masks are out of stock, medicine is running out, medical staff are overwhelmed, and people are complaining constantly. This is the misfortune of the world, but it is an important reason why this article was born. The desire to try to find the why drives the pen, after all, as in the author's favorite "eclipse" sign, "the moon is missing a corner, we have to know why". However, the author sincerely hopes that such material will never appear in the future.

Word 2: Maintaining political stability means maintaining political stability, the stability of social order and the stability of the internal situation of the country. From the source, the drastic changes that have taken place in China since the 1980s have directly spawned a large number of problems. Major decisions in the economic system have led to rapid economic development, and the success of the transition from a planned economy to a market economy has also spawned a whole new social middle class. Different from the post-foundation system of "state-society" in the past, the new social class makes the power of social self-organization continue to grow, and people are legally allowed to self-associate and manage themselves. Values have also transcended the collectivism of the past, the consciousness of rights and individuality are no longer taboos, and diversity is imperative.

The complex situation in all aspects has also created new problems, "how do you resolve conflicts when personal demands cannot be satisfied". protest? procession? Violent confrontation? What do you do when political instability can affect the stability of the social order, which in turn affects economic development. As I said in my previous article, after the reform and opening up, the source of legitimacy for the ruling party is economic development. Then, when the leaders of the ruling party are faced with problems that may threaten economic development, they will inevitably choose to eliminate all unstable factors, or at least, let the unstable factors have no possibility of harming the social order. This logic can be summed up as "stability trumps everything". In addition, our next focus will not be on issues such as crime, but on social demands.

Some people may question that blindly pursuing political stability and eliminating all factors that bring about political change actually rejects the reform of the political system, which will damage economic development in the long run. Yes, stability and development have always been two things that need to be trade-off, and the two need to maintain a delicate balance. This also means that as the economy develops, politics also needs to undergo, moderate changes. If it is too radical, when the equilibrium is destroyed, either party may ruin the development and reform achievements of the other party. For a more detailed explanation, I will do it in a later article (cuckoo, I will write when I have time).

Just a little question, what exactly does "moderate" mean? We can observe from past history that political reforms tend to focus on the economic and social realms rather than the political system. The reason is similar to the previous "stability overriding everything", which is the need to develop the economy. We know that developing a market economy requires a sound market economy system and an independent judicial system. The former uses the market to solve the problems of efficiency of transactions, production and consumption. The latter sets the rules for the above-mentioned activities and the ownership of the property rights of the participants. (However, there are still many contradictions and conflicts that are not resolved by themselves under these two systems, but intensify and affect the entire society. This is caused by the government's excessive intervention in the market and the judiciary. Gugugu has time just write.)

However, under the political logic of "stability overriding everything", a complete set of political stability maintenance system corresponds to the rapidly developing economy and the weak social self-organizing force because of its new birth. The dynamic social forces fostered by today's slowing economy and market economy clearly no longer fit this assumption. From the work reports of the ruling party over the past 17 years, we can find that they are trying to change from social management to social governance, and their attitude towards problems has also changed from prevention and control to mediation and guidance. Everything seemed so good, until an unexpected stone broke all peace. When the tide recedes, there is nowhere to hide the stains on the white sand. The world described in the reports and propaganda has opened countless gaps in the real world, and we have been able to find out.

The first case was confirmed on December 8

Tests for the virus begin at the end of December

On January 11-12, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center and School of Public Health, Wuhan Central Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the University of Sydney, Australia released the new coronavirus gene sequence.

With the complete prevention and treatment plan left by SARS, with all the advantages we can have, time is on the side of mankind.

However, we lost.

On January 20, Zhong Nanshan bypassed the National Health Commission and was able to announce to the public the fact of human-to-human transmission

Wuhan takes lockdown measures on January 23

On January 26, the number of infected cases soared to a total of more than 2,000. On the 25th, nearly 1,000 new cases were added in one day. The doubling of the data is also in line with the exponential growth law of infection.

However, during the period of official inaction, the huge flow of people brought by the Spring Festival travel and the developed high-speed rail and other transportation systems made Wuhan like a lung, sending Wuhan's 5 million people to all parts of the world with just one breath.

From the search records of the keyword "Wuhan pneumonia", we can see that there was a small peak at the end of December, but it was quickly suppressed. The official control is so skilled and mechanical, "Hey, what are you doing, go in and you le". The definition of rumour is no longer "unconfirmed news" but "information that has not been officially reported".

So what does the so-called "overall political outlook" and the so-called "stability overriding everything" look like this time? Is it "People all over the country are celebrating the Spring Festival, can't use the virus to cause panic?" .

Stable, abused. The kind for public use. It has become a tool to suppress social forces and a tool to safeguard the interests of the ruling party. Just like that sentence, "patriotism is the final destination of hooligans", stability has become the baton of a thousand responses, and the shadow players should obey, as if all shamelessness can disappear with a single click. After all, who knows, whether the eight people who spread the news that will prove to be correct in the future but were arrested will be themselves in the future. Stability is not absolute, it is absolute instability, and it is the object to be severely corrected.

When the political goals declared by the government and the actual implementation results are lost because of the selfishness of the decision makers, people whose interests have been damaged will think, discuss, and tacitly understand, and the unknown and darkness will flourish.

Word 3: The Anshi Rebellion. There is a saying, "Those who find reality in fiction have problems with their heads," but the author especially likes to watch fiction. Without him, the fiction and distortion of the plot and details are like people's dreams, reflecting the creator's subconscious content. Moreover, the criticism of reality may be too dazzling, put on a layer of sugar coating of fiction, it will not be so dazzling. But the light only converges, not disappears. Those with a heart can still tear off that layer of sugar coating and see the core that is different from the appearance.

A fictional thing that the author wants to discuss is the lighthouse incident at the end of a TV series "Twelve Hours in Chang'an".

The background is that during the reign of Emperor Xuanzong Li Longji of Tang Dynasty, all the investigations and pursuits of the protagonist finally point to a conspiracy in the Shangyuan Festival. In the prosperous festive atmosphere, the conspiracy is a fire that burns everything and a bloody coup. Fortunately, everything was reunited, the fire was extinguished, the conspiracy participants were brought to justice, and the heroes were awarded honors and corresponding promotions.

However, the failed conspiracy inadvertently outlines the next successful conspiracy. Officials bear the laziness, corruption and corruption brought about by the long-term peace, the humiliation of the frontier ethnic groups, the obsessed with gentleness and neglect of government affairs, the emperor who is gradually out of touch with reality, and the unrestrained Jiedu envoy in charge of military and political affairs. A few years later, an ambitious Jiedushi from a frontier ethnic group led the weakened Tang army to a smash, while the emperor fled thousands of miles and stabbed his favorite concubine to death in Mawei.

This time the virus is rampant, not only the treatment in the prevention stage is not up to standard, but even the treatment in the treatment and control stage can be called a duck egg. The so-called rumors caused by the non-disclosure and opacity of information are flying all over the sky, and the public panic will not be mentioned for the time being. The government's functions are actually performed in a mess. On January 23, the No. 1 order to close the entire city of Wuhan was actually just a city closure. The reserve of materials, the provision of medical equipment, and the guarantee of medical resources are not implemented by the government, but they are just spreading "rumours" on the news. After the Wuhan medical community was completely disappointed with the government, the leaders of the medical community had to take the risk of violating the regulations and bypass the government to publicly collect materials. In an instant, WeChat Moments and the Internet platform became the command center for material allocation. The "sufficient supplies" of Order No. 2 and the "welcome donations" of Order No. 3 are really ridiculous.

However, even if the government is in such a hurry, it still has the time to deal with "rumors" and control the media that report the actual infection situation in Wuhan and issue warnings and advice to the public. Today, most of the members of the epidemic leading group are from propaganda and public opinion control.

The chairman, who is also the leader of more than a dozen teams, gave him this team leader.

In the group, except for Premier Li, the others are not from the State Council system.

To this day, no senior officials have entered Wuhan to maintain chaos. Yes, Wuhan is too far from Beijing.

When the flowers bloom in spring, the virus will naturally disperse. Indeed, what is worth dealing with is public opinion.

Perhaps, some things are tired, tired, just have to do it all over again.

In the eyes of high-ranking people, I am afraid they do not understand why we, as ordinary people, should be afraid. In our eyes, in the eyes of those above us, what can we hope for?

gengzi year

late at night

Emerald