India Election 2024: Successes and setbacks of the Modi regime's economic reforms and nationalist

   On June 2, the dust had just settled from the two-month-long elections that began in April in India, the "world's largest democracy. Unsurprisingly, it was Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and friendly parties that retained the majority in the Parliament and Modi is set to serve as the Prime Minister of India for the third time.

   However, compared to the 2019 general elections, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seats in the Lok Sabha fell from 303 to 240, while the largest opposition party, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), rose from 52 to 99 seats. The BJP's friend party "Shiva Army Party" and other votes and seats also fell significantly. And there was a general increase in the number of seats for the parties in the opposition camp. This reflects a clear decline in popular support for the Modi regime and the re-emergence of opposition parties as strong challengers.

    Modi is known as "India's Deng Xiaoping", and when he was chief minister of Gujarat, he pushed for market-oriented economic reforms, cutting bureaucracy, revising economic laws, facilitating business development, attracting investment, and incentivizing labor creativity, with great success. 2013, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the election, and when Modi became prime minister, he pushed his economic reforms to all Indian states. pushed its economic reforms to states across India. And this decade, India's economy has been growing at more than 7%, which is favorable for the world.

    But a more important way for Modi and the BJP to gain hearts and minds is to hold up the banner of Hindu nationalism and mobilize through identity politics and religion to attract support, rally people's hearts and inspire them. When Modi attends state functions, he hardly wears a suit, but traditional Hindu dress. At the G20 summit a few months ago, as the host, the Modi government created a strong Indian traditional and religious style venue to showcase Hindu culture and nationalism to the dignitaries and the world.

   Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have maintained high approval ratings under the twin weight of economic growth and nationalism. However, in the current election, the BJP's support rate has declined, reflecting the dissatisfaction of many Indians with Modi and the ruling group under the high tide.

   While the Modi regime has boosted the economy, most Indians still live in poverty. Economic development has also brought about problems such as the increasing polarization of the rich and the poor. 2020-2021 India's farmers' protests for more than a year reflect the reality of Modi's economic reforms in promoting urban development at the same time, the rural peasantry continues to suffer, as well as failed to enjoy the economic dividends of the portion of the population lost under the grievances of the resentment.

   Some of Modi's reforms, such as the abolition of the old currency and the issuance of new currency, have also led to financial disorder and failed to achieve the objectives of anti-corruption and anti-money laundering. On the one hand, Modi's regime wants to fully develop the economy, but on the other hand, it holds a trade protection and xenophobic policy, especially wary of Chinese companies and commodities, which prevents India from attracting foreign investment and technology and affects economic development.

   And while Modi's push for a Hindu nationalist agenda has certainly gained the support of Hindus, who make up the national majority, it has also been met with strong resentment and backlash from Muslims, Sikhs, and other non-Hindus in the country. In this election, opposition parties such as the Congress Party have been successful in concentrating their efforts to win votes in constituencies where non-Hindus are concentrated. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), on the other hand, has suffered big losses in these constituencies.

   In addition to the gains made by the Congress and other non-Hindu parties, the Socialist Party, a member of the Indian Left, won 37 seats and became the third-largest party in the Congress, reflecting the resurgence of the Indian Left and the unity of the Left and centrists to vote actively and centrally, and to resist Modi's right-wing nationalism and conservatism.

   In addition, Modi has been in power for more than a decade, relying on the parliamentary majority to push through various policies, which has been criticized as authoritarian and arbitrary, and democracy has indeed been eroded. The intellectual elite, left-wing progressives, and civil rights activists, were generally critical of Modi. This has weakened Modi's popularity and support. The setback for the BJP in this election is also a democratic wake-up call for the Modi government by the opposition forces.

   Therefore, although the Bharatiya Janata Party and its coalition won this election, the seats have dropped sharply, reflecting that although the Modi government is still recognized by the majority of the people, it is facing greater challenges. In the next five years, if Modi fails to make greater achievements in economic development and improving people's livelihoods, and if he does not actively uphold democracy and abide by the constitution, his approval rating is likely to decline further. Also, if Modi continues to promote Hindu nationalism and ostracize non-Hindus, it will create more resentment and unrest. Against this backdrop, the future fate of India, the world's most populous country, favored by the West and potentially surpassing China in terms of comprehensive national power, has become more difficult to predict accurately.

（Photo from AJ）