女性|疫情可能威胁到女孩们巨大的全球利益

在人类历史的大部分时间里，在许多地方，女孩被视为财产。或者说，充其量是从属的人，被要求服从父亲，直到她们不得不开始服从丈夫的那一天。很少有人认为值得对她们进行教育。更少有人想象一个女孩长大后能治理德国，管理国际货币基金组织或发明疫苗。

在世界大多数地方，这种对女孩的憧憬现在看来不仅是老式的，而且是难以想象的遥远。在许多富裕的国家，父母现在对待女儿和对待儿子一样好，对她们的未来投资同样多（见论文）。在一个又一个领域，女孩已经赶上了男孩。在全球范围内，现在上大学的女青年人数超过了男青年。变化的速度是惊人的。五十年前，在中低收入国家，只有49%的小学适龄女孩在学校读书，而男孩的比例为71%；今天，两者的比例均为90%左右。1998年，世界上只有一半的中学适龄女童入学，而今天有三分之二的女童入学。同期，15-24岁年轻女性的文盲率从五分之一降至十分之一，使她们与年轻男性大致相当。

女婴比以往任何时候都更受欢迎。一些国家的父母更喜欢女婴。即使是在中国等对女孩胎儿进行选择性别的人工流产的地方，这种情况往往也在减少。女孩在童年时出嫁的可能性也较小。1995年，南亚几乎每10个女孩中就有6个女孩在18岁之前结婚；这一比例已经下降了一半。在全世界，这一比例已从四分之一降至五分之一。

女孩也更健康了。与20世纪90年代中期相比，她们的性活跃时间更晚，更有可能使用避孕药具。全球少女怀孕率下降了四分之一，南亚和北美下降了三分之二。女孩遭受女性生殖器切割的可能性较小，并且更大声地反对这一可怕的传统。2000年，在受影响最严重的地区，仅有27%的妇女和女孩认为应该禁止这种做法，而今天，有54%的人认为应该禁止。

当社会处理好女孩的问题时，其连锁效应是惊人的。一个完成中学学业的女孩不太可能成为童养媳或少龄母亲。教育提高了挣钱能力，扩大了选择范围，因此她不太可能成为穷人或遭受家庭虐待。她的收入几乎是没有受过教育的女孩的两倍。

她会把大量的优势传给她的后代。她会减少孩子的数量，并在他们身上投入更多。他们在婴儿期死亡的可能性就会降低，或者在成长过程中身体或精神发育不良。她会给他们读更多的书，并帮助他们做作业。这些都意味着他们成年后会学到更多的东西，赚到更多的钱。花旗集团和国际计划组织最近的一项研究估计，如果一组新兴经济体确保100%的女孩完成中学学业，到2030年，就能使其GDP持续提升10%。

由于培养女孩的好处如此之大，一些国家仍然没有把握住这些好处，这是一个丑闻。在南亚、中东或非洲，只有不到一半的女孩能够获得她们可能想要的避孕措施。在撒哈拉以南，每三个女孩中只有一个能完成中学教育。虽然南亚的童婚率下降了一半，但非洲的童婚率下降幅度却低于非洲（目前非洲的童婚率是世界上最高的），拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的童婚率也停滞不前。

covid-19大流行病可能会阻碍甚至逆转贫穷国家女孩的进步。在以往的灾难中，她们往往受害最深。当埃博拉病毒迫使西非学校在2014年关闭时，许多女孩辍学，再也没有回去，并最终怀孕或成为童工。 联合国儿童基金会警告说，类似的事情可能会发生在covid-19上，但规模更大。研究表明，在接下来的十年中，本可以避免的1300万对童婚可能会继续进行，另外200万女孩可能会被切割生殖器。

倒退的风险是真实存在的。因此，即使穷国政府不得不勒紧裤腰带，也必须优先考虑在教育和女童方面的支出。捐助方也应该提供帮助。政策也应相互配合。劝说女孩延长在校时间不仅是教她们数学的一种方式，也是给她们接种疫苗、教她们节育、同意和自我主张的机会。这甚至可以成为向父母宣传童婚弊端的机会。

青春期对女孩来说是一个关键的时刻。在这个阶段，许多健康问题会出现或避免，许多社会问题也会出现，从逃学到自残。直到最近，这个阶段才被认为是继婴儿期之后大脑发育最重要的阶段。如果做对了，数十亿女孩将有更好的机会发挥她们的潜能。如果做错了，她们就会活得更穷，更短命，更不能自立。

For much of human history and in many places, girls were considered property. Or, at best, subordinate people, required to obey their fathers until the day they had to start obeying their husbands. Few people thought it worthwhile to educate them. Even fewer imagined that a girl could grow up to govern Germany, run the imf or invent a vaccine.

In most of the world that vision of girlhood now seems not merely old-fashioned but unimaginably remote. In much of the rich world parents now treat their daughters as well as they do their sons, and invest as much in their future (see Essay). In field after field girls have caught up with boys. Globally, young women now outnumber young men at university. The speed of change has been blistering. Fifty years ago only 49% of primary-school-age girls in lower-middle-income countries were in school, compared with 71% of boys; today the share of both is about 90%. In 1998 only half the world’s secondary-school-age girls were enrolled; today two-thirds are. Over the same period rates of illiteracy fell from one in five young women aged 15-24 to one in ten, bringing them roughly on a par with young men.

Girl babies are more wanted than ever before. Parents in some countries prefer them. Even in places, such as China, where the sex-selective abortion of girl fetuses has been rife, it is often becoming less so. Girls are also less likely to be married off in childhood. In 1995 almost six in ten girls in South Asia were hitched before reaching 18; that ratio has fallen by half. Around the world, it has fallen from one in four to one in five.

Girls are healthier, too. Compared with the mid-1990s, they become sexually active later and are more likely to use contraception. Rates of teenage pregnancy have fallen by a quarter globally and by two-thirds in South Asia and North America. Girls are less likely to suffer female genital mutilation—and object to this horrific tradition more vocally. Whereas in 2000 just 27% of women and girls in the most-affected regions said it should be banned, today 54% do.

When societies handle girlhood well, the knock-on effects are astounding. A girl who finishes secondary school is less likely to become a child bride or a teenage mother. Education boosts earning power and widens choices, so she is less likely to be poor or to suffer domestic abuse. She will earn almost twice as much as a girl without schooling.

And she will pass on a smorgasbord of advantages to her offspring. She will have fewer children, and invest more in them. They will be less likely to die in infancy, or to grow up stunted physically or mentally. She will read to them more, and help them with their homework. All this means they will learn more, and earn more as adults. A recent study by Citigroup and Plan International estimated that, if a group of emerging economies ensured that 100% of their girls completed secondary school, it could lead to a lasting boost to their gdp of 10% by 2030.

Because the benefits of nurturing girls are so large, it is a scandal that some countries have still failed to grasp them. Less than half the girls in South Asia, the Middle East or Africa have access to the contraception that they may want. Only one girl in three south of the Sahara finishes her secondary education. And although rates of child marriage have fallen by half in South Asia, they have fallen by less than that in Africa (which now has the highest rate in the world) and have remained stagnant in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The covid-19 pandemic could hobble progress for girls in poor countries, or even reverse it. During previous disasters, they have often suffered most. When Ebola forced west African schools to close in 2014, many girls dropped out, never went back and ended up pregnant or as child labourers. unicef warns that something similar could happen with covid-19—but on a larger scale. Studies suggest that in the next decade 13m child marriages that would have been averted may go ahead, and an extra 2m girls may have their genitals cut.

The risk of regression is real. So it is crucial that, even if governments of poor countries have to tighten their belts, they prioritise spending on education and girls. Donors should help, too. And policies should be joined up. Persuading girls to stay in school longer is not only a way to teach them maths; it is also a chance to vaccinate them and teach them about birth control, consent and self-assertion. It can even be an opportunity to advise parents about the downsides of child marriage.

Adolescence is a crucial juncture for girls. It is when many health problems emerge or are averted; and many social ones, too, from truancy to self-harm. Only recently has this phase been recognised as the most important for brain development after infancy. Get it right and billions of girls will have a better shot at fulfilling their potential. Get it wrong and they will live poorer, shorter lives, less able to stand up for themselves, more vulnerable to coercion, and more likely to pass these disadvantages on to the next generation. So, get girlhood right. ■

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "Getting girlhood right"