The verdict of "Hong Kong 47 Case"of political opposition and establishment of Hong Kong new order

On November 19, the "47-person case" with the largest number of people involved since the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill movement and the promulgation of the National Security Law was sentenced. Among them, 45 people were convicted, with sentences ranging from 4 years and 2 months to 10 years.

Since the promulgation of the "Hong Kong National Security Law" in 2020, hundreds of people have been arrested for involvement in the law, and thousands of people have been involved in other related laws after the anti-extradition bill movement. The "47-person case" is not only the largest and the latest, but also involves the most core figures of the Hong Kong opposition.

For example, those sentenced this time, such as Benny Tai Yiu-ting,Leung Kwok-hung, and Joshua Wong, have long been leaders of the Hong Kong political opposition. They have been active in Hong Kong and the international stage before the anti-extradition bill movement, and are quite well-known and influential. Others such as Au Nok-hin, Claudia Mo Man-ching , Lam Cheuk-ting, Eddie Chu Hoi-dick, and Gwyneth Ho Kwai-lam are either former Legislative Council members or rising media stars involved in politics, and are also key figures in social movements.

These opposition backbones were arrested and detained for a long time after the anti-extradition bill movement. According to the political environment in Hong Kong and their personal situations, their political lives have basically come to an end. The verdict of the "47-person case" is a more symbolic reflection of the collective farewell of the political opposition in Hong Kong and the return of Hong Kong's century-old political turmoil to silence.

Once upon a time, civil disobedience and social movements in Hong Kong were one after another. The faces of the people sentenced today have long been active on the streets of various districts in Hong Kong and on media platforms inside and outside Hong Kong. Since the British colonial period, Hong Kong has had active protest politics. Whether it was the "Guangdong-Hong Kong General Strike" in the early 20th century or the political turmoil and violence after Hong Kong's restoration in 1945, the political protests at that time were mainly directed at the British Hong Kong authorities, demanding democracy and improving people's livelihood, and there were many left-leaning, socialist movements. After Hong Kong's return to China in 1997, the pan-politicization of Hong Kong society has continued unabated, and people are still demanding more democracy and improving people's livelihood, but the targets of criticism have become the Communist Party of China and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government. Hong Kong localism has also been rising since 2009 and has become an important force stirring up Hong Kong.

Hong Kong, a tiny place, has long been one of the centers of Asian political storms for more than a hundred years from the late Qing Dynasty to the 2010s, connecting China with the world, and has an extremely important position and unique value in the political struggles of various forces.

Hong Kong not only has various well-known travelers and passers-by (such as Eileen Chang), but also many celebrities who are from the mainland and have taken root here, such as Jin Yong (Louis Cha Leung-yung),Tung Chee-hwa, Szeto Wah, Lew Mon-hung,etc., all of whom are trendsetters of the times and are quite involved in mainland and Hong Kong politics. In the 2010s, another group of political newcomers emerged. For example, Joshua Wong, Nathan Law, Yau Wai-ching, and Ho Kwai-lam, with their relatively young faces and localist stances, have caused a lot of controversy in Hong Kong, and have been involved in or even led many political storms.

The fame and activism of these Hong Kong political celebrities is both a result of the environment in which Hong Kong was once the source of important political activities in Asia, and in turn has helped to fuel the ripples of Hong Kong's politics and the world situation.

From 1997 to 2020, Hong Kong, as the only special administrative region of the People's Republic of China with greater political freedom (for various reasons, political freedom in Macau is limited but not real, and the opposition is relatively low-key), is a very special existence in China. Many openly anti-CCP slogans and banners can be displayed on the streets of this piece of land in the People's Republic of China, which is amazing to think about.

As a hub connecting mainland China with the world, Hong Kong's important political, economic and financial status, as well as the strength of Hong Kong's political opposition forces, make Beijing love and hate this tiny place, and its policies have changed and repeated many times, and of course, it has also suppressed the pan-democratic camp. But in any case, Hong Kong before 2020 has long maintained a certain political opposition force, and Beijing has been relatively tolerant of Hong Kong's street political activities. "One country, two systems" was indeed implemented in those 23 years.

However, the promulgation of the National Security Law in 2020 and a series of "clearing" operations before and after it have completely changed the political ecology of Hong Kong. Not only has the political opposition on the streets disappeared, but the Legislative Council elections, Chief Executive elections, and District Council elections held successively from 2021 to 2023, the Chief Executive and the members of the Legislative Council have been swept by the establishment. Except for a few centrists elected as members of the Legislative Council, the political opposition has no place.

Most of the members of the "47-person case" sentenced this time are believed to have expressed political dissent in a non-violent way (at least they did not directly participate in and direct violent activities) and confronted Beijing and the Hong Kong government. Except for a few localists, most of them also hold a position against "Hong Kong independence". However, 45 of them were still convicted and sentenced to more than 4 years in prison on charges such as "conspiracy to subvert state power". This means that it is illegal to oppose Beijing and the Hong Kong government in a non-violent way in Hong Kong. Criticizing the regime is an attempt to subvert and will be punished with a heavy sentence, which is equivalent to declaring the fact that political opposition forces are not allowed to exist in Hong Kong.

Since the anti-extradition bill movement was suppressed, Beijing and the Hong Kong government not only no longer tolerate violent resistance, radical resistance, local and Hong Kong independence forces, but also ban or suppress them with both soft and hard methods, even the constructive, moderate, and clearly patriotic pan-democratic forces. For example, the old pan-democratic parties such as the Democratic Party and the League of Social Democrats, which still exist in name, have actually ceased to operate. In the future, it will be almost impossible to see the various political protest slogans that were once commonplace in Hong Kong, and it will be difficult to find shouts on the streets. There will be few verbal battles in the parliament. Everything will look more "harmonious" and quiet.

If there are no particularly huge political changes in mainland China and Hong Kong in the short and medium term in the future, this "47-person case" will symbolize the end of Hong Kong's political freedom and political pluralism that has lasted for more than a hundred years, and the end of the struggle between the establishment and the pan-democratic camps since Hong Kong's return. Hong Kong will usher in a new order where the pro-Beijing establishment will monopolize politics and control society. Hong Kong will no longer be one of the centers of Asia's political storms, but will become increasingly silent and marginalized. However, this does not mean the end of Hong Kong's social contradictions and ills. Various trends will turn into undercurrents and continue to disturb the officialdom and the people on both sides of the Shenzhen River.