转载：下一次世界大战会如何开始？

Refusing to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine may be justified because it exceeds the risks NATO countries are prepared to tolerate. But the idea that doing so could start World War III ignores history and telegraphs weakness. Americans squared off with Soviet pilots operating under Chinese or North Korean cover in the Korean War without blowing up the world. And our vocal aversion to confrontation is an invitation, not a deterrent, to Russian escalation.

拒绝在乌克兰设立禁飞区可能是合理的，因为这超出了北约国家准备承受的风险。但认为这样做会引发第三次世界大战的想法忽视了历史，也暗示了软弱。在朝鲜战争中，美国人与在中国或朝鲜掩护下作战的苏联飞行员对峙，但没有炸毁世界。我们对于对抗的强烈反感，是在鼓励俄罗斯将战争升级，而不是对其起到威慑作用。

There is now a serious risk that these illusions could collapse very suddenly. There’s little evidence so far that Putin is eager to cut his losses; on the contrary, to do so now — after incurring the economic price of sanctions but without achieving a clear victory — would jeopardize his grip on power.

现在，这些幻想很有可能突然破灭。到目前为止，几乎没有证据表明普京急于减少损失；相反，在付出了制裁的经济代价但没有取得明显胜利之后，现在止损将危及他对权力的掌控。

Bottom line: Expect him to double down. If he uses chemical weapons, as Bashar al-Assad did, or deploys a battlefield nuclear weapon, in keeping with longstanding Russian military doctrine, does he lose more than he gains? The question answers itself. He wins swiftly. He terrifies the West. He consolidates power. He suffers consequences only marginally graver than the ones already inflicted. And his fellow travelers in Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang take note.

最重要的是：预计他还会将赌注加倍。如果本着俄罗斯长期以来的军事原则，他像巴沙尔·阿萨德那样使用化学武器，或在战场上部署核武器，是否会得不偿失？问题本身会产生答案。他会迅速取胜。他会让西方感到恐惧。他会巩固权力。他所面临的后果只比已经承受的后果严重一点点。他在北京、德黑兰和平壤的同道都会注意到这些。

How does the next world war begin? The same way the last one did.

下一次世界大战会如何开始？跟上一次一样。

Power by cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20220316/russia-ukraine-world-war-iii/dual/

封面图片来自pixabay.com/zh/photos/peace-symbol-petals-ukraine-7043225