蘇爾科夫近作《北方的誕生》

蘇爾科夫近作《北方的誕生》
【余案：號稱俄羅斯政壇「灰衣樞機grey cardinal」的蘇爾科夫（Vladislav Surkov），月前發表了一篇一石激起千層浪的短文。原文標題是《北方的誕生（The Birth of the North）》，俄通社（RT）網站首頁推送時，有意無意改其名爲更直白的《俄羅斯何以最終將結盟美國與歐盟（Here's why Russia will eventually ally with the US and EU）》。此文並不長，英譯放在後面。有興趣的朋友自可一觀。
文章以回顧歷史開頭。感嘆十五世紀Vasco da Gama開始的地理大發現，並未實現King Manuel of Portugal的願景，未能在所到之處，尋獲葡萄牙擴張勢力所需要的海外合作者。原因並非海外沒有土王。而是這些土王不是葡萄牙希望見到的基督教長老。由此引出的教訓聼上去很熟悉：道不同不相爲謀。沒有共同價值觀，合作起來談何容易。
蘇爾科夫發思古之幽情當然是爲了引出他的論點。接下來他就質疑時下的美國跟歐盟，是否犯下當年葡萄牙王相同的錯誤。
以爲烏克蘭是個值得交往的合作夥伴，而非大棋盤上可有可無的廢子。那麽，撥開迷霧可以看到什麽？將棋盤上的廢子抹去的話，局面是否可以因此打開？

呼之欲出的就是：大北方！俄羅斯加上美國及西歐，形成一個基於共同信仰的文化圈。在形成這個概念之前，與之相對的大南方早已風行世界有年。無南何以有北？此處所謂「大北方」，約略等於先前廣汎流行的「西方」，但並未反映全部真相。在他看來，處於北方的俄羅斯是橫跨東西的。單提一個西方并不能完全涵蓋。故此並不需要固步自封墨守成規。如今大北方概念橫空出世，可謂是劃時代的認知了。聽來似乎無稽卻不妨類比於歷史真正發生過的奇跡：大俄羅斯、大歐洲到大美國，實現之前，又有誰能想象出來？
如此宏偉願景，自然不會唾手可得。在他看來，這個過程已經開始了幾個世紀，因而再等幾十年也並不爲過。
坊間一直流傳過普京即位之初就寄語當時美帝頭子要加入北約云。從灰衣樞機口中説出這個歷史傳言，無疑是加重了此説的份量。西方政客的短見，卒之錯過世紀初這一大好契機。美國佬擔心俄羅斯越俎代庖取美國超强地位而代之。歷史衹能等待牠們快點成熟，成熟到瞭解如何以及靠什麽纔能維繫世界秩序。這樣的前景既不會馬上付諸實踐也不見得永遠不會實現。
作者此論不可謂不奇妙。可惜多少失之於迂腐，將歷史上曾經存在過的信仰基礎混同於現實。渾不知時下的歐美西方早已是以「取消主義（cancelism）」相號召的反傳統反西方價值的存在。正如跟白左頭子薩特論戰幾十年的Raymond Aron很早就指出過的：西方自以爲是，一味鼓吹美式個人自由，以爲消費式享樂加上選票，就是西方永恆的樂觀來源。最終走向今天歐美西方盛行的白左大潮：取消主義扭曲篡改抹殺歷史顛倒黑白是非正誤標準，並通過身份政治引導社會走向分裂。我曾經借用「厨房辯論」舊事來證明這個傾向並非一兩個無知之徒的謬誤。當時的尼克遜與蘇俄首腦較量，自以爲握有贏得勝利的殺手鐧，究其實，卻是人的物慾貪念汎濫無度而已。靠這個來戰勝蘇俄的理想主義，卻沒料到最終真是搬起石頭砸自己脚。半個世紀之後，最終走向了自己的反面：讓赤納靠這個利器將歐美西方玩弄於股掌之上了。
很多善良人仍認爲美國尚未到不可救藥的地步，還有救治之道。理由就是還有位居世界前列的基督徒數目以及似乎仍有活力的保守派頑强戰鬥在社會各個層面甚至政壇等等。但是否過於樂觀呢？剛剛結束的十一月州級選舉結果，似乎展示了不祥的圖景。一些深紅州的議會兩院都轉藍。引起了不少進步主義吹鼓手的狂歡，說，隨著浸透白左狼奶的新一代成長成爲選民，美國政壇將徹底藍化。明年總統大選將是藍紅之間的終極之戰。老川也無濟於事。一旦再度敗於等敗曲線則終局底定，從此不會再有保守派的舞臺啦。
不要以爲這是危言聳聽。一直以來人們就將美國這個所謂的山巔之城能否存在看作基督教文明能否延續的指標。鹿死誰手？普京的如意算盤真能打響嗎？
倒是可以用東方傳統的辯證法來暢想一番，是不是可以稱之爲物極必反呢？
傳統視野中稱作異教徒的「南方」，爲什麽不能「反」過來，反而成爲以傳統西方價值為依歸的新「北方」？
若套用老話來表示，正所謂風水輪流轉。西方不亮東方亮。背棄了傳統的西方白左勢力不再是普京俄羅斯的合夥人。而拾起基督教價值的，何以不會是從前的殖民地，從前的異教地區？
當然還有很多問題。例如誰能主其事？現實中存在這樣的雄才偉略者嗎？然後卻也並非最後一個：別忘了基督教為再造當時的蠻族，花費了整整千年時間，這就是史稱黑暗時代的中世紀。現代學界願意重新思考並正名這個時代是否真的「黑暗」。若是，又何來文藝復興？又何來今天的西方傳統？可惜時不我與。你即使有如此魄力，世人會有相應的耐心嗎？
更令人憂心的事實是，東正教本身相較於羅馬帝國期間的西方教會來説，似乎過份看重世俗權利，過份依附世俗王權，並未擁有制衡王權的歷史與力量。波蘭裔的哈佛歷史教授Richard Pipes在《Russia Under Old Regime》中指出，就連所謂第三羅馬的概念，也是東正教爲了取悅沙皇而採用的主張。衹是話再説回來，西方教會離開羅馬帝國的加持，能夠形成現在依然可以想象的强大嗎？愷撒所代表的世俗權力用華文傳統來表示，似乎更容易理解。周秦之變之前的周天子政教合一替天行道故而有「天子」之稱。可以超越王權的精神力量，實際上並非超越「天子」，而是替（代表）「天」來行（執行、施行）使「道」（精神力量，因而可以超越執行者）。「天子」衹是虛君。擁有執「行」能力的諸侯貴族等等，纔是要受到精神力量制約平衡的「王權、政權」。由「周」變作「秦」之後，天子的稱呼沒變，實際意思卻已經變了。變成矯「天」之詔的僭主僭越者。不受制約的王權終於變成奴役民衆的殖民者。天下（執行力所到之處）成爲牠的私域、内殖民地。正是在這個意義上，所謂「秦制」，衹不過是殖民帝國的東方稱呼。兩者性質完全一樣。
由此可見，跟東方傳統不同的歐洲「封建」恰恰就是周秦之變之前的「周制」。關鍵之處就是「天子」必須是「虛君」。而能夠被天「道」即精神力量約束平衡的，必須是足以互相制衡的諸侯貴族。也就是歐洲中世紀受西方基督教約束的土「王」以及各路閥閲。蘇爾科夫文章開頭所感嘆的，其實是指出葡萄牙曼紐王忽略了十字軍東征時與之合作無間的各路英雄。他們纔是基督教東進的依靠力量，而非他設想出來的烏有土王。平心而論，Richard Pipes對東正教的批評指責多少有些情緒化，並不公允。將「第三羅馬」提出來作爲規範約束沙皇的執政願景，本身是值得推崇贊許的。人類歷史本身就是一個不斷積纍沉澱的過程。這是白左之類左瘋左膠動不動就要改天換地萬事都要推倒重來完全不可同日而語的境界。蘇爾科夫後面再提到這個羅馬盛世（the image of the Pax Romana）的未來。延續幾百年的羅馬帝國盛景確實是歐西歷史的榮耀與標杆。追求這樣的境界，不能說完全沒有道理。
有趣的是，RT次日刊發了「Andrew Korybko」的不同意見。就連標題都是如此的針鋒相對：《Russia Won’t Ally With The Great North Against The Global South》。似乎透視出編輯部在時下這個特殊時空中的謹慎。後來更引發閲讀界注意的，好像還是一則報導，說俄羅斯警方進行調查，看看此文是否故意在跟當局唱對臺戲。批評的側重點，並非針對蘇爾科夫。衹不過認爲跟北方結盟不必跟南方作對。文中引述蘇文說他衹是詩興大發。畢竟未提供跟西方結盟的可行路徑。因而衹是一廂情願而已。但蘇爾科夫信心滿滿，認爲這是繼查理曼大帝一統歐洲之後的壯舉。毫無疑問，這跟俄羅斯一貫將自己視作第三羅馬帝國的繼承人完全相同的思路。可惜在批評者看來，這種奇思妙想根本違背了俄當前國策。畢竟時下與之結盟的，就是蘇文所謂的「南方」，包括印度跟中國以及所謂金磚諸國。難道基於共同基督教文化背景的力量真可以取代現實地緣政治的考量嗎？
因爲要轉發此文，順便就搜索到墻内盛世良（新华社世界问题研究中心研究员：新华网2019/04/28 21:31普京引领俄罗斯走非西方发展道路——试析苏尔科夫文章《长久的普京之国》）一文。著眼點恰恰與之相反。到底是因爲在不同年代撰寫的文章，立足點因而不同呢。還是時移勢易，蘇爾科夫對世界格局有了嶄新的認知呢。有待繼續觀察。】
下面是蘇爾科夫近作的英文譯文：

Here's why Russia will eventually ally with the US and EU

Moscow's eventual victory in Ukraine will lead to profound changes in the global order, but not in the ways most commentators currently predict.

When the explorer Vasco da Gama set out to find a water route to India in 1497, King Manuel of Portugal ordered him to gain an audience with the powerful overseas rulers, Prester John and the Raja of Calicut.
The mission was only half completed. The raja was contacted, but not the Prester. This was particularly unfortunate because John was supposedly the king of a powerful Christian empire flourishing "somewhere beyond the Nile," and Portugal expected him to support it as a co-religionist in its struggle with non-believers for control of spice and gold routes.
The alliance with the Prester's kingdom was an essential element of the Portuguese expansion plan.
In the end, the scheme had to be adjusted. To their credit, the Portuguese managed more or less alone. But their 'punctuated' empire in the Indian Ocean, for all its success, was still not as strong, extensive, or durable as it could have been had they been able to draw on the resources of a major ally.

It would be rash to blame Vasco da Gama for this failure. He did not make an alliance with John. But not because he was negligent or unwise, which he certainly was not. It was because that kingdom never existed anywhere. Sadly.
King Manuel was let down by his scholarship - he based his plans on strictly scientific data and the most reliable sources. Of the time, of course.
The certainty that, whether in Africa or Asia, there was a fraternal superpower of the king-priest gave the Crusaders of the twelfth century strength. They "knew" that he could march into Palestine on their side. The Pope then sent a delegation to John. But it never returned. Later, the Prester was "clearly" described by Marco Polo. His land was "known" to the Arabs, the Byzantines, the Persians, the Mongols .... and to the Old Russian tradition under the name of the Kingdom of Ivan the Priest.
There is nothing unusual in the fact that this vivid geopolitical hallucination influenced the behavior of serious states to a greater or lesser extent for four hundred years. And if geopolitics is indeed a "grandiose chessboard," then in addition to the rather wooden kings and pawns, there is always "present" the ghostly, non-existent, but mighty, figure of Prester John.
Every strategist has his own John, his favorite illusion, his intoxicating mistake, which is freely placed alongside sober calculations. This factor is the driving force behind every great game. Without it, no player would have started the process. Simply because he wouldn't believe it was possible to win.
And it's not about wanting to cheat or being cheated. There is no messing about here, only simple-mindedness.
Human thinking as such does not perceive reality in its pure form, but always in an augmented state. Augmented by the unreal. Fiction acts as a catalyst for action. And as a manifestation of truth. Without fantasy there is no movement. And after the subsequent encounter with reality, sometimes not a happy one, we can lament that "it looked smooth on paper..."
The mind produces errors as generously as it produces correct judgements. The infallible is unreasonable. Artificial intelligence will only equal and surpass human intelligence when it learns to make mistakes.
In any ambitious plan, at least one of the two or three pivots on which the earth is to be turned is, by definition, fictitious.（奇思妙想之奇妙，恰恰在於其不切實際。）
Geopolitical hallucinations are no less important in the current redistribution of the world than they were in the days of Vasco da Gama. And it is not so important whether the strategists in Washington dreamed that they saw an embroidered shirt with the words "In hoc signo vinces (By this sign, conquer)". Or whether the planners in Berlin imagined that "as always," with their allegedly peculiar "German pedantry," they had resolutely sorted everything out and foreseen everything. Or all of them together considered Ukraine to be the kingdom of Prester John, a wonderful foreign country, ready for anything, that would help them.
What matters is that in their bloody game they will achieve goals that no one is striving for today. And everyone will not get exactly, or at all, what they seek. And momentary delusions will manifest a distant truth.
What can we see ahead if we try to look beyond the mirage? What will happen if we remove the false pieces from the chessboard?
There will be the Great North - Russia, the United States, and Western Europe - forming a common socio-cultural space. A tripartite northern geopolitical cluster.
The premonition of the North has already manifested itself in the increasingly frequent use of the term 'Global South'. And there is no South without the North.
In the past, the term 'Global North' was virtually synonymous with the 'West' and did not take root because of the obvious redundancy. Now the contours of the Global North, though barely visible, are emerging and taking on a very different meaning.
It is now hard to believe that the conflicting systems will eventually reach a high degree of convergence. But it was just as hard to believe in a united Russia when Mikhail of Tver was fighting the Moscow Principality. It was just as hard to believe in a united Europe in the time of the Bohemian warlord Albrecht von Wallenstein. Or in the union of the American states at the beginning of the Civil War.
A violent reaction of the synthesis of civilizations is taking place before our eyes. Its result will be the dissolution of both the West and the East into the Great North, when all the falsehoods have been precipitated.
All participants in this process are experiencing and will continue to experience tragic transformations until they begin to fit together in a common historical project. This has taken centuries and will take many more decades.
No, not for a while. No, "not on our watch." The chance to create a Great Northern Alliance was lost in the early 2000s when our president suggested to the Americans that Russia should be considered for NATO membership. The proposal was rejected. Most likely because of the fear that within the new security contour Moscow would be able to challenge Washington's hegemony and snatch away the levers of influence of the 'junior' members of the Alliance.
Such offers are not made twice. The US continues to live with its chronic phobias and delusions. The EU is not yet independent and remains an enlarged version of the Bizone, the American and British occupation zones in post-war West Germany.
The path of Americans and Western Europeans from paranoia to metanoia is long and winding, and it will not be long before they mature into the right world. But not soon is not never.
The Great North is neither utopia nor dystopia; it will be neither an idyll nor a dystopia. It will be full of contradictions - yet obsessed with the unifying idea of collective leadership.
A common future is prefigured by common roots.
The three major northern civilizations, Russian, Western European, and American, draw inspiration for their political development from the image of the Pax Romana. The word of the Elder Philotheus of Pskov still guides Russia. The European Union has proclaimed Charlemagne, the 'Emperor of the Romans', as its forefather. Washington's most famous hill is named after the legendary Capitol.
The source code of these three metacultures is embedded in the Iliad and the Gospel. Their kinship is obvious.
Our victory will change us as well as the so-called West. It will be a new step towards the integration of the Great North, where our country will act as a co-leader of the global triumvirate.
The evil of this day will be replaced by creation. And that will be the merit not so much of the politicians of the future, but of Homer and St. Mark.

This piece was originally published by Aktualnyye kommentarii, translated and edited by the RT team
https://www.rt.com/news/583738-vladislav-surkov-global-north/
https://www.sott.net/article/484794-Heres-why-Russia-will-eventually-ally-with-the-US-and-EU