"Three Major Turbulences Facing the US and China in 2024"

The trajectory of US-China relations continues to garner international attention as 2023 comes to an end. From the US-China trade war to the presidential elections in Taiwan and the US, Reuters examines and sketches a new unrest between the two countries in 2024. There are obstacles that Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden must overcome that may cause problems in the coming year.

Events such as the fear over spy balloons, disagreements over semiconductors, and growing military competition have happened throughout the year. At their November meeting, known as the "Biden-Xi Meeting," Biden and Xi expressed their desire to stop their relationship from rapidly worsening. Tensions between the US and China unsettlingly ease by year's end, but new instability could arise in 2024.

The paper raises a number of important points. First, the cross-strait scenario: on January 13, 2024, Taiwan will have presidential and legislative elections. Whether there is mutual suspicion in US-China ties could be determined by China's response. Polls show that Lai Ching-te, the vice president of the Democratic Progressive Party, and Hsiao Bi-khim, his running mate, are leading. China has referred to them as the "pro-independence duo" and turned down Lai's request for negotiations.

Tensions have risen before in Taiwanese elections, most notably in 1996 when the US had to send aircraft carriers because China had been conducting military drills and missile testing ahead of the poll. Beijing, which is portraying the election as a choice between peace and war and branding the ruling party as dangerous separatists, is stepping up its political and military pressure once more.

A hypothetical rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump is the second area of potential unrest in the US presidential election of 2024. Though there will undoubtedly be harsh language about China throughout the election, Xi is more worried about whether Trump will win reelection. "The worst nightmare for the Chinese when considering next year's election is the return of Trump," stated Sun Yun, head of the Stimson Center in Washington.

Chinese leaders view Biden as a leader who follows engagement guidelines and sustains a semi-functional US-China relationship, notwithstanding potential displeasure with the latter. But under Trump's leadership, there has been virtually no genuine discussion, which naturally leads to an increase in tensions since he represents unpredictability.

The dispute between the chips is the third unstable point. The US export restrictions that prevent China from importing semiconductors could get stricter. The United States of America strengthened regulations in October of last year in order to block more sophisticated chips and close loopholes. As per US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's forecast, additional limitations are anticipated in 2024—"at least once a year."

Beijing is adamantly opposing these limitations, particularly in light of the slowing Chinese economy. Beijing may lose foreign funding if US corporations face retaliation. China's strength is found in its hegemonic status as a provider of rare earth metals, which are necessary for the manufacturing of chips. Exports fell precipitously in July following the announcement of limitations on specific gallium and germanium goods. Tensions are predicted to rise as the US takes tough measures against those who disobey its new guidelines.

A special task force was established by the Biden administration in 2023 to battle the illicit acquisition of critical US technology. According to US Commerce Department Assistant Secretary for Export Enforcement Matthew S. Axelrod, there are continuing investigations into alleged violations concerning technology exports to China. "We expect to take significant export enforcement actions in 2024."