Perspective: Tragedy and hope in Myanmar

The recent intensification of the war in Myanmar, China's southwest neighbor, has brought the so-called "fire at the gate" to the pool. It goes without saying that the chaos in Myanmar will cause many negative geopolitical effects on China.

Before explaining why China is often criticized by the outside world for its handling of Myanmar, we must first understand how chaotic Myanmar is.

First, war-torn countries

From the map, the country is a unique whole, which is the most deeply rooted subconscious of ordinary people, in fact, it is not. The information marked on the map is often only a political meaning, and does not represent the real scope of control, especially in countries with chronic civil unrest.

For example, in Syria, the map of actual control looks like this:

Red is the area controlled by the Assad government, yellow is the area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (backed by the United States), and the Syrian Democratic forces will cede some territory to the Assad government forces in the face of Turkish threats, that is, the orange area; The green zone adjacent to the northern border is occupied by Turkish-backed Syrian rebels.

Or consider Yemen:

Green is controlled by the Houthis and supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh (Shia), red is controlled by supporters of Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi (Sunni), white is controlled by al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (Sunni), and brown is controlled by the Southern Transitional Council.

Like the Houthis, who have been in the headlines recently, they control 40% of Yemen's population of more than 23 million, including the capital, Sana 'a, and their power is not to be underestimated.

Does a similar map exist in Myanmar?

I'm sorry, no one's been able to draw it completely yet.

Compared with the pattern of three or five armed forces in Syria and Yemen, there are at least dozens of "civilian and local armed forces" in Myanmar, with complex and changeable components, leading to this situation, and everything starts from the ethnic contradictions in northern Myanmar.

Two, the broken jade

The main ethnic group of Myanmar is the Burman people, who originated from China and belong to the Tibeto-Burman tribe, and migrated to the middle reaches of the Irrawaddy River in present-day Myanmar around the 1st century AD.

Today, the Burman population is about 34 million, accounting for 69 percent of Myanmar's total population.

But in northern Burma, the Burman are a serious minority.

In northern Myanmar, there are several ethnic groups that are also of Chinese origin, such as the Shan (Dai), Kachin (Jingpo), Kokang (Han), Wa, and so on. The customs and language of these ethnic minorities are different from those of the Burman people, and they do not even think of being a family with the Burman people.

Therefore, for more than a thousand years, the northern provinces of Burma never submitted to the administration of Burma, and most of the time they were under the administration of the three departments of Yunnan of China, and there were frequent wars with the Burmese dynasty.

But before Burma and northern Burma could play out, the British called.

In 1886, the British occupied the main part of Burma (commonly known as Lower Burma), and in 1890 the British conquered northern Burma and set up the Shan Federation here.

Of course, out of the need to suppress the main ethnic group of the Burmese, the British gave the chieftain here greater autonomy, and was not ruled by the British colonial government of Burma.

Since then, northern Burma, which originally belonged to China, has been completely cut off from Chinese territory.

After the end of World War II, Myanmar was seeking independence, and Shan State in northern Burma also wanted independence, so on February 12, 1947, Shan State, Kachin State, Chin State and Myanmar headquarters signed the Panglong Agreement, decided to jointly fight for independence from the British. After independence, the various ethnic groups in Shan State enjoyed a high degree of autonomy.

Subsequently, Myanmar successfully achieved independence, and the Constitution of the Union of Myanmar clearly states that after the constitution has been in operation for ten years, the ethnic groups in Shan State have the right to decide whether they still want to be part of the Union of Myanmar. Basically, let's figure out how to get our independence from the British first, and if we don't want to be together anymore, let's live separately.

The result is not even 10 years, Myanmar Commander-in-Chief Ne Win coup!

Turning his back on the promise of Myanmar's constitution, he also marched into Shan State on the pretext of expelling the remnants of the Kuomintang army in northern Myanmar.

Originally, the ethnic minorities in Shan State and the Burman do not violate the river, and now the Burman army has come to achieve real rule over the ethnic minorities, and the originally free ethnic minorities who do it!

So ethnic chieftains in Shan State began to form armed forces against the Burmese military government.

However, the ethnic complexity of Shan State itself makes it difficult to unite to fight the Burmese army.

At this time, the Communist Party of Burma came forward, they integrated some of the ethnic minority armed forces in northern Myanmar, reorganized them into the Myanmar People's Army, and established the revolutionary base area of the Communist Party of Burma in Northern Myanmar. In this area, according to the ethnic composition, the various ethnic minority armed forces are roughly divided into the Northeast military region (mainly Kokang, the leader is Peng Jiasheng), the 101 military region (mainly Kachin, the leader is Ding Ying), the central military region (mainly Wa, the leader is Bao Youxiang), and the four major military regions of the 815 military region (mainly Chinese educated youth, the leader is Lin Mingxian).

Subsequently, under the leadership of the Communist Party of Myanmar, the four major military regions soon connected the base areas in northern Myanmar into a prosperous one.

But the good times did not last. The main body of the CPM is the Burman ethnic group, and the Burman ethnic group has a habit called Great Burman nationalism, which excludes ethnic minorities. As a result, most of the personnel of the CPM Central Committee are Burman ethnic group, while the four military regions that control the military power are all established by ethnic minorities. In this way, contradictions naturally arise. Out of consideration for his future and fate, Peng Jiasheng finally chose to reach an agreement with the Myanmar military government. On March 11, 1989, Peng Jiasheng launched a mutiny to drive out the Burmese Communist Party and establish himself as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Force, which is now the Kokang Alliance Force. Subsequently, the mutiny quickly spread in the base areas of the CPM, and in only six months, the CPM lost almost all its troops and fell apart. Of course, these four chose to mutiny, not to defect to the Myanmar military government, but to stand on their own as king, to unite with the Myanmar military government to bargain, and finally after negotiation, the Myanmar military government and the four reached an agreement.

The original Northeast Military Region was reorganized into the First Special Zone of Shan State, and Peng Jiasheng was the chairman, thus becoming King Kokang. The original 101 Military region was reorganized into the first Special District of Kachin State, and Ding Ying was the chairman, thus becoming the king of Banwa. The original Central Military region was reorganized into the Second Shan State Special Zone, and Bao Youxiang was the chairman, thus becoming the king of Wa State. The original 815 Military Region, reorganized as the "Shan State Fourth Special Region", Lin Mingxian as chairman, thus becoming the King of Mong La.

This agreement basically laid the foundation for the territory and power pattern of northern Myanmar, and the four chairmen of the special zone also became veritable earth emperors. At present, the drug trade, armed conflicts and ethnic conflicts in the region are intertwined, and the infiltration and intervention of the western external forces in the United States under the pretext of drug control and combating transnational crimes, with the intention of blocking the foreign economic corridor in southwest China, constitutes the most important geopolitical structure in northern Myanmar.

The representative one is that the Kachin armed forces with the support of the United States, with more advanced equipment, occupy a good position in the northern mountains of Myanmar for many years, not only control mineral resources, but also can block part of China's economic corridor to the Bay of Bengal, whenever China and Myanmar jointly build, the Kachin will jump out of the war. Second, the Kokang Allied forces were composed of ethnic minority Tuji forces in the area and veterans of the expeditionary forces left in the local area after the Kuomintang fled. During the Chiang Kai-shek period, Taiwan was also used as one of the bases for "counterattacking the mainland", providing money and weapons, helping to provide drug production technology and financial money laundering services, so that they could poison the mainland and so on.

In recent years, the Kachin and Kokang have used the abundant funds brought by the electricity fraud and drug industry to buy more and more powerful weapons everywhere, so they always grab territory everywhere, due to the lack of other income, in order to protect themselves, so the border areas between the Wa State and other forces have also appeared some hidden under the water.

It is not difficult to find that these big families in northern Myanmar, in fact, no matter which family property is full of evil, are using their own family influence to provide protection for the rampant electricity fraud groups. At the same time, several big families rely on the protection money and rent provided by the electricity fraud group to expand private armed groups, forming a gray armed group. With the industrialization and cluster effect of a large number of electricity fraud groups, electricity fraud has become a pillar industry in northern Myanmar, and further derived into a complete criminal industry chain of smuggling, kidnapping, personal information trading, money laundering and human trafficking.

Third, attacking China

To tell the truth, in recent years, China has made great efforts to crack down on electricity fraud. Under the framework of the "cloud Sword" action, the national public security organs have continued to carry out special actions such as "cutting the card", "cutting the flow" and "pulling the nail", constantly strengthening the crackdown and punishment, and have also developed a nationwide anti-fraud APP.

But the result?

In 2022, there were 464,000 electrical fraud cases nationwide, an increase of 5 percent year-on-year.

Why is this so?

Because of the anti-electricity fraud in China, it is difficult to find the root cause of the electricity fraud park. Cut off the card, cut off the current, for the electricity fraud group, just increase a little obstacle, they change some new mobile phone number, the same can continue to fraud.

Therefore, the fundamental fight against electricity fraud is to completely eliminate electricity fraud gangs.

But how easy is it to break up an electrical fraud ring? The various electrical fraud groups have various families to do the umbrella, and behind the major families is the Myanmar government, and even does not rule out the Myanmar government in Kokang garrison also share a share of the proceeds of electricity fraud, you now let them to fight electricity fraud, that is not what is the skin of the tiger?

What about learning from India to "send troops to fight electricity fraud"? (It's actually a rumor.)

No. How would that be any different than invading Burma? After all, Myanmar is a sovereign country!

In addition, electricity fraud is not only in northern Myanmar, the Philippines, Malaysia and even Dubai have, today in the name of fighting electricity fraud to send troops to Myanmar, tomorrow in the same name will not send troops to other countries? Originally, the United States is worried that there is no means to divide ASEAN, if China sends troops, the United States is afraid that the dream will wake up laughing. Therefore, relying solely on China's domestic efforts, it is very, very difficult to eradicate electricity fraud.

However, China is not convenient to act, someone is convenient to act, that is the Peng family's courageous Allies.

Since 2023, China has increased pressure on all forces in northern Myanmar to eradicate electricity fraud and hand over criminals, especially organizers. Regarding this, the attitude of various forces in northern Myanmar is different. The two Wa and four Mong La special zones are still cooperative, although they are reluctant to bring profits from electricity fraud, but they are more aware of the consequences of upsetting China. Therefore, after more than ten days of meetings, the United Wa State Party began to fully cooperate with the Chinese police to crack down on electricity fraud, not only dispatching the special police force of the Wa State Political and Legal Committee to bring down several electricity fraud parks, but also handing over the organizers and protection umbrellas of electricity fraud Chen Yapan (Bao Yanpan) and Xiao Yapan (He Chuntian). One of these two people is Bao Youxiang's nephew, the other is Bao Youxiang's son-in-law, the nephew and son-in-law are handed over, it can be seen that the Wa State is determined.

Since October, the Wa state has handed over 4,666 suspects to China, including several senior Wa leaders.

But the Kokang side, they're not cooperating. Even if China gave the list one after another, the Kokang always did not hand over people, in the face of increasing pressure from China, the five families of the Kokang began to transfer the electricity fraud group to the government controlled area, temporarily shelter.

However, on October 20, when transferring the electrical fraudsters from Crouching Mountain Village, something happened. There are rumors that some people escaped during the transfer, and the Mingjia police unit in charge of guarding them shot them to death. There is no exact information on the matter, but it has attracted the attention of the Chinese side. Although these people are true electrical fraudsters, but their own Chinese law, you shot people to death, what is the matter? So the Chinese side asked the Kokang side to explain the situation, but the Kokang side still ignored it.

This incident gave the Allies the opportunity and reason to carry out a major operation.

The Bold Allied general who commanded the operation

On October 27, the first seven victims of Crouching Tiger Mountain Village, the Allied forces dispatched three brigades, with the cooperation of the De Aung Army, the Rakhine Army and other ethnic minority armed forces, in the name of combating electricity fraud and rescuing compatriots, in the name of Kokang Qingshui River, Gunung, Menggu, Lashio, Nanzhuang and other places in the Myanmar government to launch a comprehensive attack on a number of strongholds.

It has to be said that this time the Kokang Allies are too politically correct to raise the banner of fighting electrical fraud. Eradicating electrical fraud and rescuing compatriots, this flag is played out, and whoever opposes them is a supporter of electrical fraud. As far as China is concerned, the Kokang Allies did help China take down these electrical fraud parks and hand them over to China.

It is obvious that the so-called fight against electrical fraud by the Resolute Allies is just a game of pulling the banner and playing the tiger's skin.

To some extent, the Allied forces have taken the flag of combating electricity fraud, but China has been kidnapped, and China is not able to accuse the Allied forces of initiating the war. Therefore, for some voices on the Internet supporting the Allies, in fact, it is unnecessary, and the Chinese people do not need to empathize with the Allies. After all, if the Allies had really brought down the Kokang, the burden of feeding the hundreds of thousands of Kokang people would have fallen on the Allies. Farming alone is obviously not enough, and in order to get money for military expenses, will the Allies pick up the electricity fraud again? It's very hard to say.

You know, the Allied forces also have a record, in the era of the Allied Forces rule Kokang, Kokang gambling, drug trafficking problems are very rampant, countless Chinese people were deceived to Kokang extortion money. Therefore, there is no need for China to support the Allied forces because of the flag of fighting electricity fraud, so the claim on the Internet that the Allied forces "picked up Chinese equipment in the mountains" is completely nonsense.

China's attitude towards the war in northern Burma has been clear:

China is highly concerned about the conflict situation in northern Myanmar and urges all parties to immediately cease fire and stop fighting, resolve differences peacefully through dialogue and consultation, avoid escalation, and take concrete and effective measures to ensure security and stability of the China-Myanmar border.

You see that?

China is asking for a ceasefire to stop the fighting and avoid escalation, rather than supporting one side to fight the other, even in the name of fighting electricity fraud.

Why is this so?

Because the spread of war in northern Myanmar is not in China's interests.

First, the war in northern Myanmar will inevitably lead to the displacement of civilians, create a wave of refugees, and affect the stability of China's border.

As early as August 2009, during the Kokang civil war, a large number of refugees fled to the nearby town of Nansan in Yunnan Province, China. In a humanitarian spirit, Nansan Town has taken in more than 10,000 Kokang refugees.

When the Kokang civil war broke out again in 2015, the Southern Umbrella border once again became a gathering place for Kokang refugees, hosting more than 20,000 people.

The difficulty of hosting refugees is not that they can be fed, fed and medically treated, but that you cannot know who is hiding among them, whether there are terrorists, militants or even drug dealers.

If not properly controlled, social problems such as illegal labor, violent crimes, infectious diseases, drug smuggling, human trafficking and sexual services are easily brought about, seriously threatening the stability and security of border areas.

Second, whether the Allies win or lose, in fact, China is not willing to see.

If the Allies win, no matter what China does, the Western media will hype up China's support for another country's rebel forces, interfere in other countries' internal affairs, create international panic and accusations against China, and bring some unnecessary obstacles to China's other projects.

If the Allies are defeated, then there is no force to balance the bold five families, and the five families will only intensify, ignoring China's warnings and representations, and continue to engage in electrical fraud and kidnapping activities.

Third, the war in northern Myanmar has seriously affected China's overall strategy.

To be honest, the issue that China needs Myanmar's cooperation most at present is not electricity fraud, but breaking the United States' Malacca blockade.

Myanmar's geographical position is very special, right on the Indian Ocean coast, is one of the best routes for China to bypass the Strait of Malacca.

More importantly, because of the poor relations between the Burmese military government and the United States, the United States does not have much influence in Myanmar, which is very conducive to China's access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar.

In fact, one of China's three major cross-border oil pipelines, the China-Myanmar Oil Pipeline, goes through Myanmar to reach the Indian Ocean.

Once China has enough influence in the Indian Ocean, it will get twice the result with half the effort, whether it is for the Belt and Road or for the management of Africa, and even subvert the entire Sino-US chess pattern.

In this process, what China needs to do is to ask Myanmar to cooperate with China's grand strategy and promote the China-Myanmar railway to reach the deep water port of Kyaukpyu on the Indian Ocean.

Once the railway is completed, it will completely change the geographical situation of China, just like the China-Laos-Thailand railway.

Therefore, China-Myanmar relations are very important and should not be damaged. Northern Myanmar is fighting and fighting all day long. How can China carry out the Belt and Road?

Moreover, the Allied forces' territorial grab is easily perceived by Myanmar as being backed by China and alienating Myanmar from China.

If the United States takes advantage of the lifting of sanctions against the Burmese military junta to woo it, then Burma is likely to fall to the United States.

Therefore, whether it is for security considerations or for national strategic considerations, China hopes that northern Myanmar can extinguish the war and restore peace at an early date.

From January 10 to 11, 2024, under the mediation and promotion of the Chinese side, representatives of the Myanmar army and the Kokang, Thean and Rakhine civil and ground armed organizations in northern Myanmar held peace talks in Kunming, Yunnan, China, and reached a formal ceasefire agreement. Although there is no guarantee how long the ceasefire will last, at least China's efforts to maintain peace along the border are playing a constructive role. Because China knows that chaos will inevitably bring evil, and only by maintaining border stability can the drug and electricity industries be fundamentally eliminated, to this end, China continues to provide support and assistance to the best of its ability, guide northern Myanmar to develop alternative cultivation, support manufacturing, and allow serious business to replace gray industry, to help Myanmar out of chaos.