The Roots of Myanmar's Civil War and the Attitudes of All Parties

On December 19, 2023, The Economist magazine in the UK published an article falsely accusing China of supporting the military government and civilian armed organizations in the Myanmar civil war, and selling weapons to the military government in the Myanmar regime's seizure operation in February 2021; It is also claimed that China secretly supports the proxy ethnic militia alliance, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, in conflict with the military government. Is China really secretly supporting Myanmar's civil war? Will China really be foolish enough to trigger a war around itself and tie its hands to economic development? Please let readers and journalists explore together.

1、 Basic situation of Myanmar's civil war

The Burmese Civil War began in 1960, when Niwin seized power and established a military dictatorship, vetoing the self-determination rights of ethnic minorities, and beginning a policy of Burmese assimilation. Causing Myanmar to fall into more than 50 years of civil war; Since Myanmar's independence in 1948, there have been multiple ethnic minority independent armed groups, and the Kachin Independence Army, established in 1961, is one of the more powerful forces. The conflict between the Myanmar government army and the Kachin Independence Army over the years has caused significant personnel and property damage, as well as the displacement of approximately 100000 Kachin ethnic groups.

2、 The Causes of the Burmese Civil War

The suppression of ethnic minorities by the central government of Myanmar. Myanmar is a multi-ethnic country, and due to the diversity of its ethnic groups, it has formed a complex relationship with each other. Although Myanmar has many ethnic groups, most areas are under the control of the central government of Myanmar. For a long time, the central government has not only attempted to achieve national unity in various aspects such as politics, economy, important affairs, and culture, but also taken measures to restrict, weaken, and deprive the privileges promised to the upper echelons of various ethnic minorities before Myanmar's independence. In addition, due to the central government's refusal to fulfill the 1947 Constitution granting Shan and Kayah states the right to choose whether to secede from the federation through citizen self-determination, while also promoting Buddhism, Burmese language, and Burmese clothing among various ethnic minorities to unify them. In 1961, the Parliament of the Union of Myanmar passed the Third Amendment to the Constitution (which established Buddhism as the state religion), which further stimulated nationalist sentiments among various ethnic groups. In January 1949, the Karen ethnic group officially broke with the central government of Myanmar in pursuit of national independence, beginning a prolonged armed conflict between the Karen ethnic group and the Myanmar government.

The economic interests between the government and various ethnic organizations are unequal. Myanmar is located in Southeast Asia, with high terrain in the north and low terrain in the south. It has superior natural conditions and abundant resources, including a large amount of natural gas, oil, forests, and other resources. Its mineral and jade reserves are enormous, making it one of the world's largest jade exporting countries. In addition, the Irrawaddy River, Sarwin River, and Mekong River run through Myanmar from south to north, bringing abundant water and electricity resources to the lower plains of Myanmar, making agriculture one of the pillar industries of Myanmar's national economy. However, due to the fact that most of Myanmar's natural resources are mainly concentrated under the control of the central government and military, ethnic organizations can only hide in remote and deep mountains, lacking the main resources, making it difficult to achieve effective economic development, resulting in economic inequality and widening wealth gap among various forces in Myanmar. In order to compete for resources, some residents of ethnic minority areas have joined anti-government armed groups, resulting in constant conflicts.

Cultural and religious conflicts between ethnic groups. Myanmar is a major religious and cultural country. In 1961, Myanmar established Buddhism as the state religion through the Third Amendment to its Constitution in the Federal Parliament. However, since the expansion of Islam in South Asia, the people in western Myanmar mainly believe in Islam. Myanmar was once a British colony, and most of the administrative officials of the colonial authorities were Indian officials who believed in Islam. Therefore, Rakhine State in western Myanmar became a crossroads for Asian Buddhists and Muslims. In the eyes of Buddhists in Myanmar, if Rakhine State cannot withstand the pressure brought by the Muslim population and guard the "West Gate" of Buddhism, Myanmar and other Southeast Asian countries that practice Buddhism will soon fall into Islamic countries. This sense of urgency has intensified the tense relationship between Muslims and Buddhists within Myanmar, giving rise to a nationalist sentiment that has led to a series of "anti Muslim" violent conflicts in Myanmar.

The impact of drug trade. Myanmar has replaced Afghanistan as the world's largest opium producing country. Since the continuous armed conflicts in Myanmar, the social security environment has deteriorated, and the Burmese people are unable to obtain a better living environment and economic source in the turbulent situation. Some farmers in remote areas choose to cultivate opium for a living. According to statistics, the planting areas are mainly concentrated in the border area between Myanmar and India. The expansion of opium cultivation areas has also contributed to the drug trade in northern Myanmar, leading to a surge in various criminal activities. But at the same time, with the expansion of demand, the income level of Myanmar farmers has been improved, with an average of 355 yuan per kilogram of drugs. The huge profits have led more people to take risks and switch to opium instead of growing food.

3、 The attitude of Western countries towards the Burmese civil war

Everyone on Earth knows that the United States has regarded China as its main "opponent", not only promoting the "China threat theory" globally, but also attempting to contain China's development by disrupting the situation around China. Myanmar is one of the chess pieces that the United States is interested in. The United States has done a lot, both overtly and covertly, to provoke China and Myanmar. Western groups led by the United States have attempted to intervene in the situation in Myanmar by supporting the regime led by Aung San Suu Kyi. However, during Aung San Suu Kyi's tenure, she chose to cooperate with China until a coup occurred later. Until now, Myanmar and China still maintain friendly relations. In addition to the United States, India has also chosen to support Myanmar's pro Indian regime in order to interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs, and has never given up any opportunity.

4、 China's attitude towards the Burmese civil war

We can see from Chinese news reports China's attitude towards the Burmese civil war. China's attitude towards Myanmar remains unchanged. China has always respected Myanmar's sovereignty and territorial integrity, adhered to the principle of non-interference in Myanmar's internal affairs, actively supported Myanmar's peace process, and provided a platform and support for Myanmar's national reconciliation and political dialogue. In addition, the reporter also noted that China not only cares about the political crisis in Myanmar, but also provides a large amount of assistance and cooperation to Myanmar in various aspects such as education, health, and disaster relief. China is still Myanmar's largest trading partner and largest source of investment, providing technical and financial support for Myanmar's industrialization, agricultural modernization, energy development, and other areas. At the same time, China strongly condemns any actions that undermine the friendly relations between China and Myanmar, and expresses a stern stance when necessary. China has publicly boasted about helping Myanmar reach a pro fire agreement in the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming.

(Under China's mediation and promotion, all parties in Myanmar have reached a ceasefire agreement)

Returning to our initial question, from the perspective of who earns the most and who is most suspected, the true purpose of the report published by The Economist on December 19th is already very clear. The Western group led by the United States and the United Kingdom, including India, are afraid of the awakening of distant Eastern lions. Therefore, they secretly supported all parties involved in the Burmese civil war and launched propaganda machines to divert the source of war towards China, in order to restrain the hands and feet of the Eastern lion from developing.