South Africa Election 2024: Grayness, Turbulence and Confusion in the "Rainbow Nation"

   On May 29, South Africa held its seventh general election since the end of apartheid. In this election, although the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC) still won the most votes and seats, for the first time it lost its absolute majority in parliament (159 out of 400 seats). This not only means that the ANC has lost absolute control of Parliament, but also means that it will not be able to ensure that its own candidate will be elected in the next presidential election. Even if the government is in power, it will need to join forces with other parties.

     The historic defeat of the ANC surprised many observers. However, if we look at the political situation in South Africa in detail, we will know that it was expected. In this election, the ANC's loss of absolute dominance is directly attributable to the fact that some former ANC members, including former President Ngalu Zuma, formed a new party, the Spear of the Nation, which took away a large portion of the ANC's votes. The fundamental reason is that the ANC has been in power since 1994, in the economy and people's livelihoods as unsatisfactory, but also perennial corruption scandals, infighting, losing the majority can be said to be sooner or later.

    With a history of 100 years, developed by Mandela and his comrades, in the fight against apartheid, to facilitate the peaceful transformation of the process of the ANC's hard work, after the ruling party has become increasingly degraded. With the exception of Nelson Mandela, who remains honest and clean, most of the other revolutionary fighters have become corrupt, with several presidents from the ANC, from Mbeki to Zuma and now Ramaphosa, mired in corruption scandals. The middle and lower levels of the bureaucracy are also corrupt, and despite media exposure and criticism from civic organizations, they have not been able to curb corruption or hold them accountable.

   What makes the public even more dissatisfied is that since the ANC came to power, the country's economy has been in poor shape for a long time, unemployment is high, law and order is bad, and major health crises such as AIDS have plagued South Africa for a long time. Although South Africa has also achieved some development, such as the national basic income and education, health care, old age security is sound, the majority of nationals are no longer apartheid era "low welfare" or even "zero welfare" status.

   But compared to many other developing countries, including those with a worse base than South Africa, South Africa's development over the last three decades has been hardly satisfactory. South Africa, which overthrew apartheid, has achieved much success in racial equality and communal reconciliation, but the transformation has been a failure in terms of economic livelihood and social governance.

   Of course, this should in no way be used as a defense of apartheid. The reason is that although South Africa achieved some development before the end of apartheid, most of the gains were made by whites, who constituted a minority of the country's population, and blacks were greatly deprived of their rights and gains. All kinds of high-quality education, medical care and housing security are not available to the blacks. The "good law and order" of those years was limited to the big cities inhabited by privileged whites, and was achieved through the brutal treatment of blacks. However, after the black-led ANC came to power, the poor economy and livelihood of the people should not be denied.

   Therefore, although the ANC has a long history and deep roots, and controls most of the resources and public opinion in South Africa, it is still not immune to the crisis of rule in which public opinion is far from popularity and support is declining. The outcome of this election is a manifestation of the deepening crisis.

    However, the fact that the ANC has lost seats and the opposition has gained seats does not mean that South Africa is headed for beneficial change. The "Spear of the Nation" (whose name was borrowed from the name of the armed resistance organization founded by Mandela and others during the anti-apartheid era), which won 58 seats in the current election and which was newly established by former President Zuma and others, is an extremist nationalist-populist political party that advocates xenophobia and violence, as well as radical equality in the economy. Such a political party cannot bring good weather to South Africa, nor can it realize the real equality and justice.

   Other major political parties in South Africa, such as the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the Patriotic Union (PU), are also composed of populists from the extreme left or right, with narrow and radical political programs that are not conducive to the long-term improvement of the economy and people's livelihoods. Only the Democratic Alliance (DA) is a more moderate and rational party, with about one-fifth of the seats in parliament over the years. But it will not change the overall populist and polarized nature of South African politics. Moreover, the Democratic Alliance mainly represents the interests of the white and black middle classes in South Africa, and lacks sufficiently broad representation to win the support of the lower and middle class blacks, who make up the majority of South Africans. Moreover, the supporters of the Democratic Alliance and the Inkatha Freedom Party are concentrated in some provinces (Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal respectively), which are geographically strong and lack the ability to represent the whole country.

  Therefore, although South Africans have a desire for change, and the ANC, which has long been dominant and corrupt, is in decline, there is no reliable emerging political force, and the future of the South African nation is still gloomy. At present, we cannot see any possibility for South Africa to get out of its predicament, and the "rainbow nation", which is supposed to be bright and colorful, will be lost in a gray background for a long time.