陵墟羽客
陵墟羽客

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爲什麽優步不能取代出租車行業

Why Uber fails to disrupt transportation

視頻原址https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajHg97qx4r0&t=284s&ab_channel=ModernMBA

中文小結

優步是風險投資人(venture capitalist)寄期於打破傳統出租車行業的盈利模式,以平臺作爲中間商,為需求方(乘客)和供給方(司機)提供快速匹配的產物。相比於只是單純提供中間平臺的亞馬遜(Amazon)和易貝(E-bay),優步進一步利用共享經濟(sharing economy)和零工經濟(gig work),降低了入行門檻。傳統的出租車行業受各種法規限制,從業者必須持證上崗。優步開拓的商業模式巧妙地繞開了監管,把提供順風車給別人就能盈利的機會推給每個平臺使用者。

它曾經是硅谷的寵兒,如今卻成爲少數融資超過13億美金卻仍不能盈利的互聯網公司之一。雖然它的商業模式被寫進教科書,被前仆後繼的硅谷掘金人奉爲圭臬,還催生了一衆相似的互聯網平臺,為用戶提供兼職機會,例如送花、洗浣衣物、按摩等,靠每單交易的抽成盈利。但這些被稱爲Uber for X的初創公司,在上綫沒多久都因爲運營不善而倒閉或被收購。

優步早期的經營模式以擴張和搶占市場份額為主,通過為使用者提供優厚的利潤,來擴大企業版圖。乘客只需付平臺平均20美元的打車費用便可聯係到附近的優步司機,而使用優步招攬乘客的司機平均每星期收入上千美金。然而,這種不計代價搶占市場的商業模式也讓優步連年虧損,幸得優步變賣在各國市場的資產份額和一輪又一輪的融資,才使它在17年轉虧爲盈。

隨著商業版圖擴大,優步不得不從每單交易抽取更多的佣金來實現盈利。這使乘客打車的花費更高,司機的報酬也減少了許多。但即使提高了抽成到21.5%的水平,優步仍在2019年錄得每單21.6美元的虧損。爲了保持收支平衡,優步需要提高抽成到43.5%,或者擴大到相當於現在基礎兩倍的市場份額。

優步相較於傳統出租車行業的優勢,源於它對每筆打車費用更少的抽成。提高佣金無異於自尋死路。優步亟需擴大用戶版圖,達拉(Dara Khosrowshahi,時任優步首席官)深知單靠打車業務是不足以扭虧爲盈的。於是優步又進軍外賣行業,對新加入的外賣騎手抛出豐厚的獎勵。不僅如此,它還為騎手提供燃料折扣和免費網課,與赫茲(Hertz,租車平臺)聯手,為沒有車輛的人提供優惠的車輛租賃服務。優步用戶也可以靠在平臺上纍計積分獲得優先派送、免運費等優惠。與此同時,達拉也看中了配送服務在傳統零售行業的機遇,如果能將配送的業務範圍拓寬到日用百貨,那平臺吸引的流量足以維持開支平衡。

但即使業務領域拓寬了,優步的流量增長依然很慢,雖然平臺每年都花費數百萬元倒貼外賣和打車業務,但是用戶數量卻已逐漸達到瓶頸。Covid-19肺炎疫情爆發後,優步的部分業務遭到衝擊,加上優步亟需向股東證明它的盈利能力,它不得不把每筆交易的提成提高到20%以上。視頻主認爲,即使優步到達一定規模後能實現盈利,這也不是靠它現階段具備的資金和人力就能做到的事。

English summary:

Uber was deemed as the most promising living embodiment of Sillicon Valley. It got an abundant funding from investors. Like other unprofitable startups, Uber burned a ton of money to keep its driving business afloat, but whether its operating model will turn a profit is still unknown.

These novel internet startup built on an on-demand, online to offline platform business model, which is called B2C example. Netflix, Doordash, AWS, Google Cloud and sundries developed out of it are gradually taking place the traditional service providers in its respective field. Uber took a step further by making the best of sharing economy and gig work. It allows people to render services on-demand while using their cars.

It was considered to be the most revolutionary out of the bunch as its adoption was the most visible.

The business model follows the Sillicon Valley tradition-"raise the biggest possible warchest", "drive adoption with subsidized prices", "gain customers at negative margins". Once the business take up enough market share to domineer the industry, it will raise prices. By then, customers have no other business to turn to, but have to keep using Uber.

Two items- income from discontinue operation and income from business divestiture -pump up Uber's bottom line by billions. Part of the gains from divestiture came from a negotiation with Didi, the Chinese version of Uber. Uber reached a deal with Didi to quit Chinese market for 6 billion worth of Didi stock. But Didi stock was only worth that much in private market and could not guarantee the same payout in IPO. Uber greatly reduced its 3.2 billion operating losses by recognzing the 2.8billion dollars of Didi's equity in its annual report. Uber played the same trick in the following years. A hollow in operating fees was camouflage with additional income from inflated private equity. Uber further promoted an non-conventional adjusted EBITDA to reduce its quarterly net loss.

By operating at a negative margins, Uber aspired to become an unregulated monopoly and CEO Kalanick believed profits will come with scale. He's successor Dara Khosrowshahi still kept up his aim to wait until Uber reach a scale to make profits. It is estimated that Uber needs a take rate of 43.5% to balance the budget, but since it raised the commission rate to 21.5%, it sparked a widespread protest among drivers.

Dara Khosrowshahi launched a new rewards program and expanded into delivery to drive more traffic to its platform in 2019. On the supply side, Uber teamed up with Hertz to provide vehicles to Uber drivers and online course training. On the demand side, users could earn points via Rides and Ubereats orders to unlock price protection, priority pickup and free delivery. But Uber still had to increase the take rate to maintain a healthy budget for IPO.

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